Bad start! Oil prices skyrocketed, soybean meal and pigs skyrocketed, and corn fell within a narrow range!

Introduction 10 enters the middle of the month. In the domestic agricultural product market, recently, the domestic live pig and soybean meal market rose against the trend, and the prices of live pigs and soybean meal "skyrocketed". Among them, the price of live pigs rose to a new high of1July, and the soybean meal market also rose sharply. The quotation of domestic mainstream oil plants rose to 5300~5400 yuan/ton, while the domestic refined oil market, 1 1 started from June 0 1 1, and the oil price continued to adjust on September 2 1, so this round of oil price "ran aground". However, with the arrival of a new round of oil price adjustment cycle, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have made a good start, and oil prices have risen to the sky! So what happened in the market?

The oil price didn't start well, and the market "rose to the sky"!

It is understood that due to the sharp rise in the international crude oil market, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have fallen. On June 65438+1October 1 1, a new round of pricing cycle began, and the change rate of crude oil remained at 4.64%. It is estimated that the domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 360 yuan/ton on the first working day, which is equivalent to a price increase of 0.27~0.33 yuan per liter!

The oil price started badly and the market soared. The fundamental reason is that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has previously announced a reduction of 2 million barrels of oil daily output, which has also aggravated the market's concern about the tight supply of crude oil! At present, the price of WTI crude oil in the United States has fallen to $90.85, down 2.43% from the previous day! However, the price sideways is still high. At present, the international crude oil price is still expected to rise further. Some organizations predict that the price of crude oil will rise to about 100~ 105 USD/barrel, which will also support the current surge in domestic oil prices!

At present, the domestic oil price has been adjusted * * * 19 times, of which 1 1 times rose, 7 times fell, and 1 times ran aground. The new round of oil price adjustment time is1October 24th at 65438+24: 00, and the oil price may have an upward trend. Up to now, for ordinary residents, it costs about 52 yuan more to fill up 50L gasoline than at the beginning of the year!

Soybean meal market rose sharply!

After the National Day holiday, the domestic soybean meal market rose sharply. It is understood that in recent days, the prices of oil plants in coastal areas have increased 170 yuan/ton, the prices of soybean meal of some traders in Tianjin have increased 170 yuan, and the prices of mainstream oil plants in Shandong and Jiangsu have increased 120 yuan. The domestic spot soybean meal market continues to strengthen!

According to the latest data, as of June 10, 10, the price of soybean meal in Shandong Province rose to 5300 yuan/ton, that in Jiangsu Province rose to 5320 yuan/ton, and that in the coastal areas of Guangdong Province soared to 5465438 yuan/ton!

The domestic spot soybean meal market rose sharply. On the one hand, market speculation is more prominent. Some analysts are worried that the scale of soybean arrival in Hong Kong in June 5438+ 10 was insufficient, and some domestic oil plants stopped working, which had a significant impact on domestic soybean meal production and aggravated market bullish sentiment. On the other hand, the mainstream oil plants have insufficient soybean stocks, the soybean meal stocks are at a historical low level, and the domestic demand side is strong, which aggravates the market's concern about insufficient demand!

Due to the skyrocketing domestic soybean meal market, the cost of feed enterprises has increased significantly. At present, domestic mainstream feed enterprises have entered 10, and the price increase phenomenon continues. Some aquatic products, livestock and poultry feed and ruminant feed increased significantly, among which some pig feed, concentrated feed and teaching feed increased by 100~300 yuan/ton! However, due to the sharp rise in the soybean meal market, the cost of farming has also increased significantly. According to the agency's calculation, every increase in the domestic soybean meal market 100 yuan/ton directly drives the cost of raising pigs to increase by 0.09 yuan/kg!

The price of live pigs is "high"

In the domestic pig market, at present, the price of pigs continues to soar. This round of pig price has increased by nearly 10%, and the domestic pig price has risen to 13.2 yuan/kg! At present, the pig prices in low-priced areas and northeast markets are hovering around 12.7~ 13. 1 yuan/kg. The markets in Heilongjiang and Jilin have a sideways trend, but the market in Liaoning fluctuates greatly, while the pig prices in most parts of North China have entered the "13 yuan era", and the high-priced pig sources have gradually surged to 65,438. The price of pigs in the southern market has risen steadily, and the price of pigs in high-priced areas has continued to rise. Among them, the average price of Sichuan and Chongqing rose to 13.5 yuan/kg, that of Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Fujian rose to 13.6 yuan/kg, and that of Guangdong rose to 13.6 yuan/kg.

At present, the settlement price of retail pig collection in slaughter enterprises continues to rise, but from the market feedback, the market price of big pigs is stronger. Due to the cold weather, slaughter enterprises in the market are more enthusiastic about slaughtering big pigs. However, there is a general shortage of big pigs at the breeding end, and the supply of big pigs is small, which supports the strength of the price of big pigs. But it is more beneficial to big pigs, farmers have more incentive to suppress supply, and also limit the pressure on staged pigs!

Judging from the feedback from the market, retail pig farms are constantly gaining weight, while the rhythm of large pig enterprises is returning to normal. However, many slaughter enterprises in the market still face certain pressure to collect pigs. Although the demand in the consumer market has cooled down after the holiday, the phenomenon of secondary fattening in the market has also declined, leading to a decrease in pig collection by slaughter enterprises! However, judging from the game of purchase and sale, there is still a certain pig shortage in the market, and the quotation of slaughter enterprises is stable and strong!

Pig prices will continue to fluctuate sideways in the short term. However, with the official opening of a new round of pork storage, it is expected that the pig price will fluctuate weakly. However, the decline will be unsustainable and the decline will be limited. The lack of live pigs in the market, farmers and retail pig farms are reluctant to sell, and will continue to maintain the feedback of high price fluctuations!

Corn prices fell within a narrow range!

After the middle and late September, because the old corn stocks bottomed out, traders were reluctant to sell at a very high price, while new corn was listed sporadically, and the ex-factory listing price was mainly high. However, after entering 5438+00 in mid-June, with the acceleration of new corn market, the supply of tidal grain in the market is loose, and the deep processing enterprises are not enthusiastic about building tidal grain warehouses. Traders will follow the harvest, and the arrival volume of enterprises will gradually relax, and the price of corn will run in a narrow range!

At present, the quantity of new grain corn in Northeast China and North China fluctuates, and the deep processing enterprises in Northeast China constantly adjust the purchase price of new grain. In particular, the purchase price of 30 moisture grain directly under the Central Grain Reserve in Heilongjiang Province is set at 1 yuan/kg, which also plays a certain guiding role in deep processing and grain collection. In some areas, the price of new grain scales has dropped within a narrow range! In the North China market, due to the fine weather, the new grain market has increased, and the price is weak!

According to the data, in most parts of Northeast China and North China, the quotation of factory listing is generally based on stabilization. The price of Heilongjiang new grain is hovering around 0.98~ 1.05 yuan/kg! In Hebei and Henan areas, the factory's dry food quotation hovers around 1.38~ 1.43 yuan/kg.

In Shandong, due to the increase in the listing of new grain, the number of vehicles queued in the factory has increased to about 770, and the quotation of enterprises is weak!

In the short term, due to the loose listing of new grain, corn prices still tend to fluctuate weakly. However, after the end of 5438+00 in June, the harvest of autumn corn in North China and Huanghuai areas ended, and the corn yield reached a stage peak. Domestic multi-party buyers will also start to build positions, corn prices will gradually stabilize, and prices will show a narrowing trend! In the medium and long term, boosted by the demand side performance, corn has the risk of reducing production, and the price will still be optimistic for a long time!

Bad start! Oil prices skyrocketed, soybean meal and pigs skyrocketed, and corn fell within a narrow range! What do you think of this? The above is my personal opinion!