The stock price has risen to $5, but is Tesla really worth that much?

On January 7th, in the newly-built Tesla Super Factory in Shanghai, the billionaire Musk danced on the stage in front of China employees. Celebrate the delivery of Model3, which was put into production in China.

But what really made him happy didn't stop there. From the beginning of the new year in 22, Tesla's stock seemed to be on a rocket, soaring from more than $42 on January 2, and the price per share had soared to $496 by the close of 16: pm EST on January 8. The highest intraday price reached $498. As of the close, the total market value of Tesla's stock has reached 88.7 billion US dollars, reaching a record high.

in the same period, the market value of two American ace automakers, General Motors, was US$ 49.5 billion (share price was US$ 34.65, P/E ratio was 5.52), and the market value of Ford Motor was about US$ 36.7 billion (share price was US$ 9.25, P/E ratio was 22.9).

as can be seen from the above data, Tesla's market value has exceeded the sum of the market values of GM and Ford (the sum of GM and Ford is about $86.2 billion), exceeding by a full $2.5 billion.

But up to now, Tesla is still losing money. At present, the earnings per share is -4.589 USD, and the P/E ratio is -17.24.

in comparison, GM's earnings per share is $6.278, but its market value is only half that of Tesla.

More ironically, in 219, GM sold 2.9 million vehicles in the United States and Ford sold 2.4 million vehicles (slightly more than Toyota in North America). Tesla has just sold only 367,5 electric vehicles in the world in 219.

The sales volume is only a fraction of that of the competitors, but the stock price and market value have been shot to the sky. Tesla's stock price miracle may only appear in the United States, a magical country with an over-developed financial industry. I'm afraid Ford and GM would never dream that one day the sum of their market values would be "defeated" by an electric vehicle company with an annual production and sales of only over 3, vehicles.

to some extent, the rise of Tesla and the decline of traditional automobile giants in the stock market have just added a timely footnote to the background of the decline of traditional American manufacturing and the financial industry devouring everything.

why is Tesla's share price crazy?

The stock price rise originated from Tesla's announcement of production and sales data in the fourth quarter of last year. In the fourth quarter of 219, Tesla delivered a total of 112, vehicles. In 219, 367,5 vehicles were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 5%.

But what really excites investors is the completion and commissioning of the Shanghai Super Factory. At the end of 219, Model3 was put into production, with an annual production capacity of about 15, vehicles, which can reach 5, vehicles after completion.

It is said that orders for domestic Model3 are very hot at present, and more than 1, orders are received in China market every day. According to the forecast of relevant institutions, the production and sales scale of domestic Model3 will soon reach the scale of 3, vehicles per year. In other words, it is likely that Tesla's production and sales scale will continue to double this year with the launch of the China market.

In addition, Musk also announced the launch of China Model at the delivery ceremony of Shanghai Super Factory on January 7th. Project y The car will be delivered in 221. Some investment institutions predict that this car will have the opportunity to reach the annual production and sales scale of 3, vehicles in China. The reason is Model? Y is more advanced than Model3. At the same time, the total scale of competitors such as Mercedes-Benz GLC, BMW X3 and Audi Q5L is between 4, and 6,, and the market capacity is large enough.

if this prediction comes true, it seems not difficult for Tesla to double its production and sales scale in 221.

in addition to the Shanghai factory, Tesla's super factory in Germany will also start construction this year, with a planned production capacity of 5, vehicles. With two new factories and the original production capacity of more than 3, vehicles, Tesla can achieve a total production capacity of more than 1.3 million vehicles in Asia, North America and Europe, which is more than three times the current production capacity.

Cool down the myth of Tesla

Everything looks beautiful. However, if we analyze the prospect of China market, it may not be as beautiful as we thought.

of the more than 36, Tesla vehicles sold last year, 2, came from the American market, and most of them were Model3. Although Tesla claims to have won the first place in mid-level luxury cars in North America since 218, surpassing Audi A4, BMW and mercedes benz c, in fact, BBA sells 6, to 7, cars in the United States every year, which is a relatively marginal model. And in China, can such a miracle be replicated? Difficult!

in the China market, the cheapest Model3, which landed close to 3, yuan, can also buy a low-middle match in BMW and Mercedes-Benz, and a high-end match in Audi A4L. Does Model3 have enough strength and confidence to steal hundreds of thousands of orders from these models a year? This is equivalent to the annual sales of any car of C, 3 Series and A4L.

from the actual sales situation of the imported Model3, it has not caused enough impact on the luxury B-class car market. This is not a question of price (after all, the imported version has stronger premium ability, which is recognized by China consumers), but because electric vehicles are still synonymous with inconvenience, short battery life and instability in many people's minds, and will not be considered at all when choosing a car. What's more, from the perspective of imported Model3, some problems in workmanship quality have been exposed.

how big are the plates in the pure electric passenger car market in China? According to the data released by the Federation, from January to November 219, the sales scale of new energy passenger cars was 895,. According to this trend, it is estimated that there will be no more than 1 million vehicles in the whole year. About 2/3 of them are pure electric passenger cars. In other words, the total size of pure electric passenger cars is only 6, to 7, vehicles per year.

if Tesla takes away 15, or 6, sales a year, 2%-3% of the market will go to Tesla. Is this possible?

even if the organization's most optimistic forecast, the total number of new energy vehicles is expected to rise to 1.5 million in 22. Even if the number of pure trams reaches 1 million, Tesla will achieve a scale of more than 15,, accounting for 15%-2%.

think about it, is it possible? Better than FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC-Volkswagen, each market share is only about 1%. Some people say that Tesla has occupied 7% of the pure tram market in the United States, but the situation in North America cannot be applied to China. Tesla's rivals in the United States are Nissan, BMW, Audi and Volkswagen. These brands of electric vehicles also have a low presence in China. It is very difficult for Tesla to copy American myths in China.

At present, the expectations of various research institutions for Tesla's market in China in 22 are very different (the views are not responsible anyway): some say that they are expected to be in the scale of 2, units, some say that they are in the scale of 1, units, and some say that they are in the scale of 15, units. As for who to trust, it all depends on who you are willing to trust.

Finally,

Actually, there is another important reason why I am not optimistic about Tesla's expectations in China. It's not hard to find that even the sales volume of 6, to 7, electric passenger cars last year, about 6%-7% of them were sold to non-personal customers, and went to the taxi, exclusive car and official car markets. In addition, the decline of pure electric vehicles last year, in addition to the saturation of government and enterprise procurement, is also an important reason for the liberalization of fuel vehicle license policies in various places. So what is the real demand of private users for pure electric vehicles? Actually, it's hard to say. Don't forget Weilai, Tucki and Weimar, each one counts. The delivery volume in 219 is generally far from the target, and even only 2%-5% has been completed. This shows that in fact, electric vehicle companies are generally too optimistic about the market expectations, and they are too optimistic!

looking around the world, the market for electric vehicles is actually small. In 219, there will be 1.5 million vehicles in the world, of which China accounts for about half, and the United States has about 2, to 3, vehicles. Others are Europe, Japan and South Korea. Moreover, the growth of the two major markets in China and the United States has begun to be weak this year. Therefore, electric vehicles are far from subverting anyone.

some people say that the strength of Model3 is that it has no competitors. I think this also belongs to self-hypnosis. Not to mention that BBAs are accelerating their entry, not to mention that a lot of Internet forces and domestic brands have already preempted the layout. Tesla's biggest advantage is the time difference, and how did the time difference come from? It is because the traditional giants feel that "the electric vehicle market is still too small" and are still hesitant about "making money from fuel vehicles" or "making money from electric vehicles", but the key barriers such as technology, manufacturing and cost advantages do not exist. This means that once the traditional giants decide to transform, a lot of competitors may stand around Tesla overnight.

Tesla's only chance in China may be, as some analysts say, that the domestic Model3 can activate a large number of middle classes, making it a consumer fashion and circle culture, just like the United States. In other words, half depends on products and half on feelings.

Just, the China market, which has experienced multiple storms such as cheating, spontaneous combustion, difficulty in charging, and false battery life, and China consumers who are full of complicated feelings about electric vehicles, can you give Model3 such an opportunity?

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This article is from the author of ChejiaNo. in car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.