Under the epidemic, the "retrograde" in the stock market, the dark horse story of the Ningde era

After the "black swan incident" in 2020, all established arrangements were disrupted. As soon as the domestic stock market opened on February 3, pessimism dealt a heavy blow to the market. The Shanghai Index fell 8.73 at the opening, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 9.13, and the ChiNext fell 8.23. As many as 2,900 stocks fell by their limit at the opening.

Finally at 15:00 in the afternoon on February 3, the day's frightening ended. The Shanghai Stock Index fell at 7.72, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 8.45, the GEM fell by 6.85, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange totaled 3761 On the first day of trading after the holiday, a total of 3,188 stocks in the two cities closed their lower limit, of which 2,152 stocks fell to their daily limit.

February 3rd is a day that is destined to be remembered by the majority of investors. It also set a record for the number of stocks that have hit their daily limit since the 2015 stock market crash. Even on the premise that the central bank had launched a 120 million yuan open market reverse repurchase operation on February 2, it still could not withstand this wave of heavy losses.

What will happen on the opening day of February 3 is not unprepared for most investors, but they have been mentally prepared for it, but they never expected it to be so tragic. Under the epidemic, regardless of technical aspects, panic flight of funds has left the stock market in a mess.

Amidst this tragedy, except for the strength of online entertainment, education, medical and other related sectors, almost all others were wiped out. However, Ningde era broke out as a dark horse, and its performance was overwhelming, becoming a "rebel" in the market.

On February 3, 2020, lithium battery-related manufacturers, Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, both fell to the limit; and zooming in to the entire automobile manufacturers, Dongfeng, Changan, and Great Wall also fell to the limit; let’s take a look Guoxuan Hi-Tech and BYD, both battery power manufacturers, have not escaped the fate of falling to the limit. It can be said that there are no survivors in the entire automobile industry chain, but the CATL stands proudly.

On February 4, 2020, the day after the market opened, Ningde Times was blocked by tens of thousands of buy orders in early trading. The stock price per share reached a new high of 148.9 yuan, with a total market value of 3,288 yuan. 100 million yuan. If this state is maintained until the closing time, the total market value of CATL will increase by nearly 30 billion yuan in one day.

The confidence of CATL comes from the morning of February 3, when the company issued an announcement and signed an agreement with Tesla, Inc. and Tesla (Shanghai), stipulating that CATL will provide lithium ions to Tesla Power battery products. According to the announcement, the two parties agreed that the supply validity period is from July 1, 2020 to June 30, 2022.

At this point, CATL has become the third Tesla battery supplier after Panasonic and LG Chem.

The reason behind CATL’s price reaching a new high is Tesla’s 20 positive line on February 3, 2020, and the stock price reached a commanding high of US$780 per share. According to foreign media reports, Tesla’s stock price has risen by 86% since the beginning of this year. On January 30, Tesla disclosed its fourth quarter financial report for 2019, with fourth quarter revenue of US$7.38 billion, including its own cash flow. It was US$1.01 billion, far exceeding market expectations of US$429.5 million.

In the fourth quarter of 2019, Model S/X production was 17,933 units, an increase of 10% from the previous quarter; Model 3 production was 86,958 units, an increase of 9% from the previous quarter. The delivery of Model 3 was 92,620 units, an increase of 16% month-on-month. In the entire fourth quarter of 2019, vehicle delivery reached approximately 112,100 vehicles, setting a new record for Tesla’s own delivery volume.

The above is Tesla’s situation in 2019. Below, let’s look at another set of data.

Tesla currently has four major factories in the world, namely Reno, Nevada, USA, Buffalo, New York, and Shanghai, China. There is also a plan announced by Musk in November 2019. A "super factory" and engineering and design center will be established in Berlin, Germany. Tesla is expected to expand production to 890,000 vehicles in 2021.

The contract period between CATL and Tesla is: July 1, 2020 to June 30, 2022. Tesla’s current total production capacity is 640,000 vehicles, which means that by 2021, Tesla’s production capacity will increase by approximately 40%. Among them, the Shanghai factory has a production capacity of Model 3 of 150,000 units, accounting for 60% of the total increase of 250,000 units.

In 2020, after the Ningde era officially enters, the price of Model 3 produced by the Shanghai factory is expected to drop again, which will inevitably bring greater market stimulation. Another potential after Model 3 The popular model Model Y will not be delivered in the first quarter of 2020. On January 7, 2020, Musk announced that this blockbuster model will soon be produced in China. Some institutions predict that Tesla's global delivery in 2020 is expected to reach 600,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 63%.

Tesla’s double increase in production capacity and delivery has made individual stocks in the Tesla industry chain jump on the news, and CATL is the direct and largest beneficiary. However, the main purpose of the cooperation between powerful companies is to achieve mutual benefits for both parties. Tesla joins hands with CATL. Tesla will no longer be constrained by Panasonic as a single battery supplier. At the same time, it is also moving firmly towards the direction of 100 domestically produced batteries. Taking steps forward, Tesla is tantamount to "fruitful" for the CATL era.

From the perspective of CATL itself, it also has the potential to continue to grow in 2020.

According to the "New Energy Vehicle Battery Production, Sales and Installation Volume Data in December 2019" released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, CATL topped the list in terms of vehicle installation volume in December, and was among the top Compared with the total installed capacity of the top ten, it accounts for 60%. In an article titled "CATL captures half of the market, annual installed capacity is 31.71GWh", we can intuitively see that CATL's share reached 51.01 in 2019.

In recent years, the development pace of CATL has been rapid and large. It is not only the largest power battery giant in the world, but also has formed a dominant position in the domestic market.

Let’s take a look at CATL’s ever-expanding circle of friends!

CATL has joined hands with global automobile giants such as BMW, Volkswagen, Toyota, General Motors, and Daimler, and has also reached cooperation with SAIC, GAC, Geely, Dongfeng, Changan, BAIC New Energy, BMW Brilliance, and Yutong Or a joint venture company was directly established.

CATL, which has no shortage of order resources from downstream manufacturers, has actually paved the way for its future development.

Although, from a macro perspective, domestic subsidies continue to decline, which makes new energy appear in some seemingly difficult situations. In fact, it is a reshuffle. New energy has sprung up after a rain, and it is time for a round of reshuffle.

After a round of reshuffle, the new energy market can ensure that it continues to develop in a healthy state. Although century-old brands such as BMW, Daimler, and General Motors entered the game late, they have a lot of chips in their hands. This is also an opportunity for the CATL era to gain momentum.

Having grasped the downstream orders, CATL also made arrangements for upstream suppliers early. There are several key materials for power batteries, the positive electrode - the active material is lithium cobalt oxide; the negative electrode - the active material is carbon.

In an article by Gelonghui titled "Why the Automobile Industry Chain was "Destroyed" and Why the Ningde Era Emerged Suddenly", the original article mentioned several very critical time points.

In 2016, before the skyrocketing cobalt resources, Ningde and Glencore locked up 20,000 tons of cobalt resources. Later, they were less affected by the skyrocketing cobalt prices. Coincidentally, in mid-January this year, Tesla was also negotiating a long-term contract with mining giant Glencore to ensure the supply of cobalt.

CATL has already taken steps to ensure the supply of cobalt. In 2019, when cobalt prices were low, it spent 55 million Australian dollars to invest in Pilbara, an Australian lithium resource company, and became the largest shareholder. In addition, Ningde has plans for upstream cobalt, nickel, and cathode materials.

Final words:

The market status page on CATL’s official website still only focuses on the results achieved in 2018. However, we believe that this line will continue to grow in the future. Continue to rise.

Finally, a digression: "Are you rich? Although the stock price is high, you might as well consider it~"

This article comes from the author of Autohome's Chejiahao and does not represent Autohome's point of view.