What is the relationship between central bank bills, credit supply, withdrawal of funds from the central bank and the stock market?

The central bank squeezed the bill financing bubble for three months, and the repurchase is being liberalized.

Yesterday, the amount of three-month repurchase in the open market soared to 654.38+020 billion yuan, a record high. Market speculation, the central bank's move may be intended to ease the rapid development of bill financing in recent months by fine-tuning short-term liquidity. In addition, this huge withdrawal is only a structural adjustment and has not changed the loose situation of funds. At present, the open market is still a net market.

Yesterday, the central bank selected 9 1 day repurchase varieties in the open market, and the amount of repurchase was 654,380+020 billion yuan, 2.4 times that of the last operation; The yield is 0.96%, which is the same as the last operation.

This week, the increase in the withdrawal of funds from the open market is obviously related to the massive release of due funds. Due to the issuance of more central bank bills last year, the total amount of central bank bills due and being purchased this week reached 654.38+056.5 billion yuan, an increase of 654.38+065.438+025 billion yuan over the previous week, which was the largest single-week capital investment in February. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the withdrawal of funds from the open market to avoid excess liquidity, and the operation volume of 100 billion-level repurchase has not exceeded market expectations.

However, this ordinary write-off behavior may have other meanings. The withdrawal tool used in the open market this week is 9 1 day repurchase. Previously, the open market usually chose 7-day and 28-day maturity varieties to regulate short-term liquidity. Once the capital supervision of 1 month or more is involved, it is often chosen to directly issue 3-month central bank bills.

It is noteworthy that since February last year, bank loans have grown rapidly, among which the growth rate of bill financing is the most significant. From June 5,438+10 this year, the proportion of bill financing in total bank credit has soared from 30% in February last year to 4 1.59%, which directly pushed the bank loan to a record high of 1.62 trillion in that month.

The low interest rate is the main reason for the large increase in bill financing. On the one hand, compared with short-term loans in the same period, enterprises have low borrowing costs and high enthusiasm through bills. On the other hand, the discount rate of bills is highly marketized. Due to the recent abundant funds and fierce competition, the discount rate of bank bills has been lower than its capital cost, and enterprises can carry out risk-free arbitrage when the discount rate and the policy rate are upside down.

Although the debate about the growth of huge bill financing is still going on, how to ensure the continuous and balanced supply of bank credit during the year is the key to the stable economic growth of China this year. From a technical point of view, it is undoubtedly necessary to ensure the normal growth of bill financing from two aspects: capital supply and capital price. The discount period of bills is usually short, basically within 3 to 6 months. Therefore, among the central bank's operating tools, three-month central bank bills and repurchase are relatively "symptomatic" tools. In fact, since the beginning of this month, the issuing rhythm of three-month central bank bills has been quietly accelerated, from once every two weeks to once a week. Some industry researchers believe that if the open market continues to increase the withdrawal of funds during this period, it will inevitably push up the price level of funds. Once the discount rate returns to the bank's capital cost, it will effectively curb the arbitrage behavior of enterprises and squeeze the bubble component in bill financing.

Although the open market increased the withdrawal of funds this week and directed the withdrawal of funds within a three-month period, it was only a structural fine-tuning and did not change the overall situation of loose funds. Since the beginning of this year, the open market has still made a net investment in the market, with a net investment of about 260 billion yuan. (shanghai securities news)

1 month The ratio of non-reduction and non-reduction reached a three-month high.

The sustained rebound of the A-share market after the opening of the year not only strongly attracted off-exchange funds, but also provided a good opportunity for the size of the company that still holds the concept of "keeping bags for safety". Although in June 5438+ 10, the number of non-reduced and non-reduced sets decreased by 36. 1% and 30.7% respectively compared with that in June 65438+February last year, the proportion of non-reduced and non-reduced sets in the total transaction volume of the two cities in that month reached a new high of nearly three months.

After June 5438+February last year, the lifting of the ban "flood peak". On June 5438+ 10 this year, the pressure of lifting the ban in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was greatly reduced, but the proportion of lifting the ban increased significantly.

According to the monthly release and reduction of restricted shares disclosed by Deng Zhong Company, the total number of shares released in the two cities in June was 8.048 billion, which was 36. 1% lower than that in the previous month. Among them, Dafa lifted 5.442 billion shares, accounting for 67.6%; The lifting of the ban reached 2.606 billion shares, the highest level since Deng Zhong disclosed the data.

The month when 2.606 billion small non-banned shares came out 1 month coincided with the longest rebound since the stock index was adjusted to 6 124. In that month, under the influence of multiple factors, such as sufficient liquidity, expected warming of the economy, and recovery of investment confidence, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 9.33%, once approaching the 2000-point mark. The data shows that in June, 5438+ 10, the size of the non-reduced by 570 million shares, a decrease of 30.7% from the previous month, of which the small non-reduced by 268 million shares, accounting for 47%.

It is worth noting that although the total amount of non-reduction was significantly reduced last month, its reduction efforts did not decrease simultaneously. According to the data of Deng Zhong Company, the total trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in June 5438+ 10 was 203.974 billion shares, down by more than 40% from the previous month. The non-trading volume actually reduced in that month accounted for 0.28% of the total trading volume, up by 0.04 percentage point from last February and up by 0.04 percentage point from June 165438+ 10.

As of the end of last month, the cumulative number of restricted shares in the two cities reached 468.535 billion shares, and the number of restricted shares in the stock market was 322.890 billion shares. Since the share reform, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have lifted 65.438+044.480 billion shares, accounting for 30.84%. Accumulatively holding 29.28 billion shares, accounting for 20.27%.

Since June 2008, when Deng Zhong Company began to disclose monthly the size of non-lifting and reduction, in the past eight months, the cumulative number of shares lifted in the two cities reached 63 1.45 billion shares, and the actual reduction was 4.724 billion shares.

The total amount of restricted shares in the two cities will rebound again this month. According to the data of Southwest Securities, the amount of shares released in this month's share reform was 65.438+0532 billion yuan, an increase of 654.38+034.97% from the previous month. The total amount of restricted shares released in the month was 65.438+0652 billion yuan, up 654.38+034.33% from 10. Among them, China Merchants Bank (600.036) alone will account for about 38% of the total number of restricted shares.

Market participants believe that this month's rebound in market volume and price will undoubtedly increase the willingness to cash out, but because the market is still optimistic about the sustainability of this round of rebound, some shareholders who have restricted shares in share reform also have obvious reluctance to sell. In the current market environment with abundant liquidity, the release of non-cash this month will not have a great impact on the disk. (shanghai securities news)

This annual report will be delivered to 39 company executives and their relatives "on time".

While the market is picking up, we can also avoid sensitive periods such as annual reports and performance reports. Many executives of listed companies have bought and sold shares of their own companies. Statistics show that from February 2nd to13rd, executives and their relatives of 39 listed companies bought and sold 98 shares of the company, most of which were reduced.

Not only are transactions frequent, but the amount of cash sold by executives of many small and medium-sized board companies is also amazing. On February 12, Zheng Guohua, the director of Lu Xiang Co., Ltd., reduced his holdings by10.2 million shares, with the transaction price of 13.35 yuan/share and the cash amount of about160.2 million yuan. Similarly, Xie and Tan of Hublot and Star Technology have recently cashed in tens of millions of yuan.

According to industry insiders, there are two main reasons for the recent small and medium-sized board executives to cash out. On the one hand, because of the recent market recovery, individual stocks picked up, and executives of listed companies reduced their positions on rallies. On the other hand, it may be driven by the disclosure of annual reports.

According to relevant regulations, directors, supervisors and senior managers of listed companies are not allowed to buy or sell shares of the company within 30 days before the announcement of periodic reports of listed companies, and within 65,438+00 days before the announcement of performance forecast and performance express of listed companies. At the same time, directors, supervisors and senior managers are not allowed to buy or sell the company's shares on the date of major events that have a significant impact on the company's stock trading price or during the decision-making process, and within 2 trading days after legal disclosure. Since then, in the Notice on Further Regulating the Trading Behavior of Directors, Supervisors and Senior Managers of Companies, the scope of application of this provision has been extended to the spouses of directors, supervisors and senior managers of listed companies in small and medium-sized enterprises.

Judging from the current disclosure of the annual report, since Yongxin Co., Ltd. took the lead in disclosing the annual report of small and medium-sized board in 2008 at 65438 on120 this year, the disclosure frequency of the annual report of small and medium-sized board companies has been slow. According to the appointment schedule, it is mainly concentrated in March and April. Because there are restrictions on buying and selling stocks of their own companies within 30 days before the annual report, many executives of listed companies are scrambling to buy and sell stocks at this time.

Take the reduction of Hengxing Technology as an example. The disclosure of the company's annual report is scheduled for March 10, so after February 10, the company's directors, supervisors and senior executives cannot buy or sell the company's shares. Therefore, Xie, Tan, the directors of the company, reduced their holdings of a large number of listed companies through bidding transactions and block transactions from February 2 to February 6 respectively.

"Coupled with the recent good market conditions, if listed company executives want to reduce their holdings, they must seize the days before the disclosure of the annual report." Industry insiders told reporters. (shanghai securities news)

The S&P 500 index fell below the 800 mark for the first time today.

As investors were worried about the global economic outlook, the United States fell sharply on Tuesday, and the S&P 500 index fell below the 800 mark for the first time today after hitting the bear market low of 1 1 last year.

Crude oil futures fell sharply, and the crude oil contract for March delivery fell 6.8% to close at $34.95 a barrel. In the past three months, oil prices have fallen by 36.4%.

Gold futures rose 2.7% to close at $967.50 an ounce, hitting an intraday high of $970.50. So far this year, gold futures have risen by 9.4% in April and 30.3% in the past three months. The rise in the price of gold reflects that investors choose safer investments to avoid risks.

Major stock indexes hit new lows in intraday trading since last year 165438+ 10.

Today, the Volatility Index rose above 50 for the first time since 1 month, and now it is up 17% to 5 1. This index, often called the fear index, reached 89.5 in June last year.

According to the data released by the government, the manufacturing index of new york in February (773.5438+07, -25.45, -3. 19%) dropped from -22.2 in 65438+ 10 to -34.7, which is the lowest since the index was compiled in 2006. This data shows that the economic recession in the United States is getting worse, and investors are also worried that the latest economic stimulus plan in the United States will not be effective in the short term.

The GDP of Japan, the world's second largest economy, fell by 12.7% in the last fiscal quarter, the biggest decline since the oil crisis in the 1970s.

The S&P 500 index fell below the 800-point mark for the first time since it hit a bear market low of 1 1 last year.

Bank of America fell by 10.2%, JPMorgan Chase by nearly 9%, Wells Fargo by more than 7% and KBW Bank Index by 7.2%.

Dan Greenhous, a market analyst at Miller tabak & Company, said, "The problems in the banking industry are still unresolved, and the profitability of enterprises is declining. We don't see any force that can reverse this trend in the near future. "

He said, "I don't think the current stock price fully reflects the bad economic situation in 2009."

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 297.8 1 point, or 3.79%, to 7552.60. The S&P 500 index fell 37.67 points, or 4.56%, to 789. 17. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 63.70 points, or 4. 1470.66 points.

Last week, as investors worried that the US government's economic stimulus plan and bank rescue plan might not be able to reverse the downward trend of the US economy, the US stock market fluctuated and closed down. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell about 5%.

The most noteworthy news on Tuesday was the recovery plan submitted by General Motors (GM) and ChryslerLLC, an unlisted company, to the US government, which is a prerequisite for them to get billions of dollars in life-saving money. According to the Wall Street Journal, RonBloom, a former Lazard banker who has always been very tough on automakers, may be appointed as a member of the government advisory group.

In addition, Daimler) (DAI) reported a loss of $654.38+09 billion in the fourth quarter, partly due to the serious decline in the value of its Chrysler equity and the sharp decline in Mercedes-Benz sales performance.

Carmakers must submit their recovery plans before 5pm EDT today (before 6am Beijing time).

Wal-Mart (WMT) released its fourth quarter financial report, and its profit performance was slightly better than expected, but its annual financial forecast figures failed to meet expectations. The stock rose by 3.3%.

Asian stock markets were dragged down by Hong Kong and China bank stocks, with the Nikkei 225 index down 1.4% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.9%.

Foreign media falsely claimed that China manipulated statistics to create the illusion of economic rebound.

The statistical data on which the central government makes macroeconomic decisions are consistent with the data obtained by the vast number of statistical users in society. If the government gets real data and the enterprise gets "manipulated" data, the government's macro-decision will deviate from the overall expectation of the enterprise and it is impossible to receive the expected control effect.

After the reform and opening up, the independence of China's statistical departments has been continuously enhanced, and the published economic statistics objectively reflect China's current economic growth situation as a whole.

Some foreign scholars' mechanical one-sided understanding leads to the untenable judgment.

Q: Recently, I saw a comment on Reuters's website entitled "China's statistical data is foggy and economists are at a loss". The author quotes many western scholars as saying that China's statistical data are "manipulated by the government" with the aim of "maintaining social stability". The article also quotes different viewpoints of different scholars. One scholar believes that China officials are adjusting the data downward to create a relatively strong data rebound effect for the second half of 2009; Other scholars believe that the China authorities are adjusting the data upwards. They think that in June and February of 2008, China's power generation decreased by 7.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate of industrial output also decreased. Therefore, the industrial growth of 6.4% in the fourth quarter could not bring the "strong" growth of GDP of 6.8%. This article also brought "fog" to some readers. Please make some comments on this "comment".

A: It is irresponsible for these scholars to draw the conclusion of "official manipulation" without a basic understanding of China's statistical indicators, methods, systems and actual economic activities. This not only affected their own true judgment on the actual situation of China's economic growth, but also misled people in the world who care about China's economic growth.

Q: It is not the first time that we have heard the data on power generation and industrial growth released by the Bureau of Statistics criticized. What is the relationship between industrial electricity consumption and industrial growth?

A: Some scholars' understanding of the relationship between industrial electricity consumption and industrial growth is mechanical.

In China, industry is indeed the largest electricity consumption department, and in 2007, industrial electricity consumption accounted for 75% of the total electricity consumption. But in the industrial field, the electricity consumption of each industry is different. In addition to the power industry, the three industries with the largest proportion of power consumption in the total consumption of industrial industries are ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry (15%), chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry (1 1%) and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry (10%).

Under the global financial crisis, these industries have been hit hardest. For example, the growth rate of metallurgical industry 1 1 was -4.8% in June last year, and it turned to 0.8% in February last year. The growth rate of nonferrous metals industry is 2.3% and 9.5% respectively, and that of petrochemical industry is 0.9% and 4.4%. The growth of these industries was most obviously affected in June 5438+065438+ 10. Although 65438+ rebounded in February, the growth rate was still low except for the non-ferrous metal industry. Compared with these heavy chemical industries, China's low-energy industries have also been hit by the global financial turmoil, but overall, the impact is less than that of heavy chemical industries. This is the basic reason why China's power generation is declining, but its industry is still growing.

Q: The industrial growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year was really low. Can such a depressed industry support a 6.8% GDP growth rate?

A: The industrial growth rate of 6.4% in the fourth quarter of 2008 reflects the growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in China, that is, the growth rate of industrial enterprises with main income of more than 5 million yuan. Although it reflects the trend of industrial growth, it is not industrial growth in a complete sense.

From the perspective of other industries in the national economy, there has not been a sharp decline, and the growth rate of some industries has also reached a new high in the past two years. Judging from the seasonal constant price increase rate, the agricultural growth rate reached 7.2% in the fourth quarter of 2008, which was 65,438 0.6 percentage points higher than that in the third quarter of 2008, and reached the highest point of quarterly growth in 2007 and 2008. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the growth rate of construction industry was 8.6%, 4 percentage points higher than that in the third quarter, and reached a new high in 2008. The growth rate of wholesale and retail industry in the fourth quarter of 2008 was 15.2%, which was also the highest growth rate since 2004 except the third quarter of 2008. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the growth rate of financial industry was 15.0%, 4.4 percentage points higher than that in the third quarter.

According to the data of 2008, the above four industries accounted for 30.3% of GDP. In the economic growth of 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2008, the pulling rate of these four industries was 3. 1 percentage point. Therefore, it is untenable to deny China's economic growth only on the grounds of declining industrial growth.

The contribution of domestic demand to China's economic growth should not be underestimated.

Q: Some scholars attach great importance to evaluating the impact of external demand on China's economy. Do they underestimate the contribution of domestic demand to China's economic growth?

A: Yes. China's economic growth is driven by the "Troika", not just exports. We can analyze the situation from three aspects.

In the fourth quarter of last year, both imports and exports of China declined. However, some time ago, China enterprises accumulated a large amount of stocks in response to the rising prices of raw materials. Therefore, if exports drop slightly, imports will drop sharply. In this way, China's surplus increased, reaching1145 billion US dollars, with a nominal increase of 50.5% year-on-year. If the factors of exchange rate and price rise are deducted, the increase rate is at least 65438.

Looking at investment in fixed assets, investment has been the most important factor affecting economic growth since the current economic cycle in 2003. From 2003 to 2007, the real growth rate of fixed assets investment in China has been maintained at more than 20%, which is about twice the growth rate of GDP. However, in the fourth quarter of 2008, although the nominal year-on-year growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society remained at 22.6%, the actual growth rate only reached 16.8% after deducting the price factor, which basically echoed the GDP growth rate of around 6%.

Finally, looking at consumption, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the fourth quarter increased by 20.6% year-on-year. After deducting the price factor, the actual growth reached 17.2%. Although China has not released the expenditure GDP data on a quarterly basis, in terms of final demand, the growth rate of fixed assets investment is declining, while the growth rate of net exports and consumption is rising, especially the growth rate of consumption is still quite strong. Judging from the relationship between these variables and the related variables in the expenditure method GDP, if the expenditure method is used to calculate the GDP growth rate, the result may be slightly higher than the production method.

Objective and accurate statistical data play an important role in macroeconomic decision-making.

Q: With the rapid development of China's economy, we often hear criticisms of China's statistics, which are sometimes overestimated and sometimes underestimated. As a scholar who studies national economic accounting and economic growth, what do you think of these criticisms?

A: In the mid-1980s, with the transformation from the planned system to the market system, China's national economic accounting changed from the traditional MPS system to the SNA system used by market economy countries. Reflected in the statistics of economic aggregate, GDP accounting has replaced the original statistics of total industrial and agricultural output value and the national income statistics of MPS system. After more than 30 years of development, China's official statistics, especially macroeconomic statistics, are playing an increasingly important role in macroeconomic decision-making.

If these data are "officially manipulated", then macro-control based on such false figures is also divorced from reality. But the fact is that China's macroeconomic decision-making in the past 30 years of reform and opening up is scientific, reasonable and correct on the whole, which in itself shows that the digital basis of our macroeconomic decision-making is constantly developing and improving, and the description of economic operation is becoming more and more objective. Now, the changes in China's comprehensive strength, people's life and international status reflected by official statistics have been widely recognized by all countries in the world. If China "manipulates" statistical data when the economy is in trouble, then every "miss" adds up to "a thousand miles", but this is not the case.

After the reform and opening up, the independence of China's statistical department has been continuously enhanced, which not only meets the needs of the government in formulating policies and management in social and economic aspects, but also meets the needs of enterprises, academic institutions, individuals and foreign countries. The statistical data on which the central government makes macroeconomic decisions are consistent with the data obtained by the vast number of statistical users in society. If the data obtained by the government and the enterprise are inconsistent, that is, the government obtains real data and the enterprise obtains "manipulated" data, the macro-decision of the government will deviate from the overall expectation of the enterprise and it is impossible to receive the expected control effect.

We believe that the economic statistics published by the National Bureau of Statistics and other government departments reflect the clear mutual relations and balanced relations among all parties, and objectively reflect the current overall economic growth situation in China. China's government statistical work has made great progress, and the accuracy, timeliness, systematicness, independence and transparency of statistical data have been greatly improved, which has provided good data services for the government, enterprises, research institutions and the vast number of social users. This is also an important reason for the continuous improvement of China's government's macro-control level and the continuous improvement of folk research capabilities.

On the other hand, we should also see that the statistical work of our government needs to be further strengthened and improved. For example, from the perspective of GDP accounting itself, the GDP statistics calculated by the production method in China are quite perfect, and the progress and annual data are published by the production method, but the GDP calculated by the income method and the expenditure method can only provide annual data at present. Our analysis of export, investment and consumption is different from that of production GDP, which affects our further research on the process of economic growth. The National Bureau of Statistics said that it is good news for us to improve the quarterly expenditure GDP accounting and publish the results as soon as possible. (People's Daily)