The first line after the epidemic

The hands of time always look particularly deep. In 2020, this is the first boxer year in the new century. Even in peacetime, the Boxer Hurdle with a hint of feudalism will come as scheduled.

Just like that winter one hundred and twenty years ago, the cold in 2020 will be as biting as a dragon. A sudden epidemic swept across the country, leaving everyone in danger. All walks of life press the pause button in the isolation requirements, and it is normal to stop work and stop business. Helping each other in the same boat and overcoming difficulties together has become the most distinctive footnote of this "Boxer Year".

"I can't live, I'm ready to change careers."

This is the most touching feeling of car dealers in a 5-line town in Jiangxi Province. They didn't wait for the arrival of winter, and all the descriptions of difficulties and sufferings were scattered like ink in every corner of the house. "From years ago to now, only one car was booked very early, and it was basically not allowed to buy in February. After the unsealing, those who said they would buy a car after marriage also suspended their plans. "

According to statistics, the inventory early warning index of automobile dealers in February this year was 8 1.2%, up 29.5 percentage points from last month and 27.7 percentage points from the same period last year, and the inventory early warning index was above the warning line. This is also the first time that the inventory early warning index of automobile dealers has exceeded 80% in five years.

Generally, automobile 4S stores closed in the first half of February, and resumed work in succession in the third week, with an area of about 50%, and resumed work in a large area in the fourth week, with an area of over 70%. Distributed in the most basic consumer end of the country, these two-network and three-network dealers are the tentacles for manufacturers to reach the corner of the market.

The closure of the 4S store is a devastating blow to them.

According to the Survey Data on the Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on the Automobile Circulation Industry released by the Automobile Dealers Branch of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, 33% of the dealers surveyed believe that their distribution enterprises are expected to lose money in the first half of 2020; Another 20% of the respondents believe that even if there is no loss, the profit will be significantly reduced by 30% to 40% compared with the same period last year.

Some analysts believe that this year's 1 quarter auto market will be in a state of "shutdown" as a whole, and it is estimated that the sales volume in March will drop by more than 60% year-on-year. The challenge is very obvious. Especially in the supply chain, after-sales service and other links, it is expected that it will gradually get on the right track by May.

In the description of the store, we know that the second and third line networks like this are basically in a broken state, and there are no heavy assets such as stores and stocks like 4S stores. Their survival mode is often to pick up the car on demand and rely on the weather to eat. In the case of a severe blow to the industry, it seems naive to get rid of the "bottomless abyss, which is also the future of Wan Li". "Trees move to death, people move to life" is their most urgent idea at the moment.

"Ready to engage in breeding, with friends in the mountains to engage in several factories to raise chickens and sell eggs. Didn't you make a lot of money raising pigs last year? "

"Don't sell cars?"

"Just put it there, call a person to control it. Someone ordered it, and someone mentioned that the energy of the future is still there. The repair shop is also there. " Last year, I wanted to expand the scale and complete the transformation from the second network to a 4S store. After an epidemic, the family who had been selling cars for more than 20 years suddenly became a farmer.

Leaving the branches, the densest places are often the most vulnerable places, and a gust of wind will blow the most detailed sales network all over the sky.

On the other side of the picture, in the first-tier cities that support the whole automobile consumption, the long-standing consumer demand began to be released. Mask, temperature measurement, registration, for users here, buying a car is just a few more steps.

"Passenger flow is recovering. Not as much as before, of course, but the conversion rate has improved a lot. Seeing cars on the spot is a hard demand, and the conversion rate can reach about 80%. " This is dictated by the sales manager of Guangzhou Automobile Chuanqi Shanghai 4S Store. Although Shanghai is not the main battlefield of Chuanqi, it has the enthusiasm of the sales manager, and there should be a fighting atmosphere here.

"There is still a discount, but only until the end of the month, and then it's gone. As you know, we are Toyota. " It seems that the aftermath of the epidemic has not spread to Toyota. "That is, there was no turnover in February, and in March, the 130 order was placed. We have always fixed production by sales, and the impact of the epidemic may be more directed at consumers. It takes about a month or two to pick up the car. "

In addition to FAW Toyota, many brands have launched promotion policies until the end of March, and of course only at the end of March. In the BMW 4S Guangzhou store, sales began to pick up slowly after mid-March. "The store originally applied for a promotion policy. I am afraid that no one will come out to buy a car because of the epidemic. I don't think it's necessary to promote it when I sell it. It stopped soon. "

In order to avoid crowded public transportation and reduce the risk of exposure to the virus, it seems that the first consumer goods in first-tier cities after the epidemic are cars. Here, the obstacles to consumer behavior are more from the production side.

"The COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan has a great impact on the domestic automobile supply chain." Sanhuan Electric said in an interview with local media. Take Sanhuan as an example, the inventory of general spare parts enterprises is only about one week to ten days. During more than a month's shutdown, the supply pressure began to stand out. "By March 10, many OEMs resumed work for more than 20 days, and our inventory was gone. The OEM is also very anxious. "

It is understood that Sanhuan Electric is located in Wuhan Development Zone. They are the second largest car horn manufacturer in the world. Last year, they produced 30 million horns, accounting for about 45% of the total national output. Their customers include Geely, Dongfeng Group, Great Wall, BAIC, GAC, Changan, Ford and other automakers. It can be said that nearly half of the country's horns come from here.

With the deepening of economic globalization, even because of the shortage of domestic parts, many foreign car companies have fallen into a passive position. FCA's factory in Serbia, Europe, had to stop production passively in mid-February.

For a car whose industrial chain is as long as possible, every link is indispensable, and the car is only the pillar of the consumer market. The retail sales of automobile products above designated size account for 10% of the total social retail sales.

No matter because of the economic recession or the epidemic, there is an urgent need to restore automobile growth.

On March 3 1 day, the executive meeting presided over by the Prime Minister formally gave the highest instructions on promoting automobile consumption.

First, extend the purchase subsidy and exemption from purchase tax for new energy vehicles for two years.

Second, the central government adopts the method of substituting awards for subsidies to support key areas such as Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei to eliminate diesel trucks with emission standards of national III and below.

The third is to sell used cars to used car distribution companies. /kloc-From May to the end of 2023, the value-added tax will be levied at a reduced rate of 0.5% of the sales.

This symphony, which has been circulating for nearly a month to promote the recovery of the automobile industry, finally blew the last chapter.

On March 2nd, "Guiding Opinions on Orderly Promoting Enterprises in the Industrial Communication Industry to Resume Work and Production" clearly pointed out that it is necessary to actively stabilize traditional mass consumption such as automobiles, and encourage areas where automobile purchases are restricted to appropriately increase the number of license plates to drive automobile consumption.

On March 13, 23 departments including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting Consumption Expansion and Upgrading to Accelerate the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market", proposing encouraging measures such as promoting the scrapping and updating of motor vehicles, promoting the change of automobile purchase restriction policy to guiding use, and encouraging the areas where automobile purchases are restricted to appropriately increase the number plate limit.

On March 23, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission and National Health Commission jointly issued the Notice on Supporting Commercial Circulation Enterprises to Resume Business, proposing that all localities should actively promote the introduction of new car purchase subsidy policies, actively promote the optimization of automobile purchase restrictions, and stabilize and expand automobile consumption.

Just a few days later, Xian Guoyi, director of the Service and Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce, said at a regular press conference: "The Ministry of Commerce encourages all localities to introduce measures to promote the consumption of new energy vehicles in light of local conditions, carry out trade-in of vehicles, and further stabilize and expand automobile consumption."

After the baptism of the epidemic, it is obvious that the local people have learned a lot in understanding the spirit of instructions. At the beginning of March, Jilin, Zhejiang, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Zhuhai, Changsha, Zhuzhou, Xiangtan, Chongqing, Nanchang, Hangzhou and other provinces and cities clearly introduced relevant policies to promote automobile consumption, and took the lead in introducing them early.

Foshan, the first city to introduce policies to promote automobile consumption, subsidizes 3,000 yuan for buying new cars, 5,000 yuan for buying new cars, and 2,000 yuan for each of the six new cars. Guangzhou provides a comprehensive subsidy of 654.38 million yuan for consumers to buy new energy vehicles, and a subsidy of 3,000 yuan for consumers to replace or buy new cars in China.

On the basis of the policy of "supporting 40 enterprises" in early March, Chongqing Municipal Commission of Commerce once again added the "automobile consumption season", which deeply stimulated the automobile consumption market and quickly returned to the normal track through various measures such as supporting merchants and preferential consumers.

Similarly, the Jiaxing municipal government has also formulated a plan to issue consumer vouchers. In order to promote car purchase, * * * has put 40 million coupons into the market. Coupons are common in all participating 4S car stores and are used on the basis of independent discounts of merchants.

Car companies, which are vital to local economic development, have stronger policies. Buying FAW Pentium in Jilin Province can give a one-time subsidy of 3% of the purchase price of each car. If there is replacement demand, a one-time subsidy of 4,000 yuan per vehicle can be given. If you buy more than 5 cars at one time and get a license in the province, you can give a subsidy of 5000 yuan per car.

Changsha buys vehicles produced by SAIC- Volkswagen Changsha Factory, Changsha BYD, GAC Mitsubishi, GAC Fick and Hunan Cheetah at designated dealers, and each vehicle can be subsidized up to 3,000 yuan.

From guiding opinions to implementation opinions, to notices and decisions, the signal of revitalizing the automobile industry is particularly strong. Some people say that after being bruised all over, the wound will grow a pair of wings, but for the worse automobile consumption market, these wings are pressed up step by step.

In several cities where automobile consumption subsidies were implemented earlier, BC reporters selected some stores for telephone interviews. The feedback information is not satisfactory.

In these tepid cities, the subsidy of 1000 to 3,000 yuan seems not attractive enough. From the beginning of March to the present, the occurrence of sales behavior is not affected by subsidies, which basically belongs to a release of squeezing consumer demand.

Even some dealers included subsidies in the original sales discounts, and consumers did not enjoy additional discounts. Financial expenditure has become the blood stick of some car dealers and cannot stimulate consumption.

Here, it is particularly worth mentioning that the seemingly in full swing rescue policy is quite a bit of thunder and rain. The three highest instructions from the top-level design, the first is the extension of subsidies for new energy vehicles, the second is the scrapping of diesel vehicles, and the third is the used car market.

The mainstream automobile consumption market, which produces and sells 20 million vehicles, seems to have been neglected. The much-anticipated purchase tax reduction and exemption policy for small-displacement vehicles failed to achieve its goal. Compared with The Wandering Earth's "saturation rescue" to reinforce Sulawesi's steering engine, I'm afraid the current policy combined with the bleak environment can only be called "appeasement rescue".

However, regarding the operation of the passenger car market throughout the year, the Federation believes that the downturn in the car market exceeded expectations in February, and the car market recovered slowly in March-April, and it is expected to return to normal after May.

It is worth noting that the association once again lowered the annual auto market sales forecast to 8% year-on-year, which was 9 percentage points lower than the 2020 growth forecast of 65,438+0% at the end of 2065,438+09. "If there is no strong stimulus policy at the national level, the negative growth of the auto market in 2020 may further increase." At the beginning of the month, the argument may be a prophecy.

Not only in this epidemic, but from the day when the growth rate of SUV slowed down in the second half of 18, the China automobile market was declared to have entered an adjustment period, and the decline was normal.

On the other hand, a foggy morning doesn't mean a cloudy day.

With overcapacity, market chaos and lack of a strong policy baton, China's automobile industry began to be gradually taken over by an invisible hand. The sudden outbreak may only accelerate the process of market regulation, just like a hammer hitting a blank. It should knock out fragile iron filings and forge sharp steel knives.

In the past two months, we can clearly see that some marginal enterprises have even handed in blank papers, and the epidemic situation is only a tattered fig leaf for them, but the tide will always recede one day.

Reducing inefficient low-end capacity building and building a competitive leader in complete vehicles and parts have always been the top priority of supply-side reform in the automobile industry. The seemingly appeasing consumption stimulus is not a deeper "bailout".

In this context, Great Wall Motor lowered its sales target in 2020 from 1 1000 to1020,000, and its expected net profit from 4.7 billion yuan to 4.05 billion yuan. Guangzhou Automobile Group also lowered its expected sales target from 8% to 3%, and adjusted its sales target in 2020 from 2.22 million vehicles to 2,654.38+0.2 million vehicles.

At the same time, a number of auto companies have been exposed to reduce employees' salaries to cope with the market downturn and the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on auto sales. At present, many SAIC auto companies, including SAIC Chase, SAIC Zhonghui and SAIC passenger cars, have been reported to take salary reduction measures, and Weimar Automobile, BYD and Bojun Automobile have also announced that they will implement salary reduction policies to varying degrees.

In this great era of natural selection and survival of the fittest, we have to say that 2020 is also a turning point for China's auto industry to mature formally.

Slippage and pain are not terrible. All things suffer before they are mature.

Text /ALTTT

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.