Why has Japan's economy stagnated for more than 20 years?

Many people may think of the Plaza Agreement, but don't forget that the Plaza Agreement was signed not only by the United States and Japan, but also by European countries. Germany has not stagnated for 20 years, indicating that it is still poor.

The key lies in the hollowing out of Japanese industry.

The hollowing out of Japanese industry is still relatively unfamiliar to many people in China, because we have always accepted the transfer from other countries, not transferred to other countries.

Most Japanese companies are multinational groups, such as Panasonic and Sony. Have you seen Sony's financial statements? Do you know what Sony's most profitable business is now? You may not believe this: this is Sony's financial department.

Followed by entertainment, movies, games, music and electronic products.

Sony used to be the greatest consumer electronics manufacturer in the world, and now it has fallen to this point.

The hollowing out and industrial transfer of Japanese enterprises are often like this: First, the production line is transferred to China to take advantage of the cheaper labor in China. After factories like China fully digested the technology, Japanese production lines were directly closed or completely replaced by robots.

Today's "Made in Japan" may be different from what you think. All the parts are made in China and then shipped to Japan for assembly. Assembling in Japan has many advantages, such as labeling it as "Made in Japan".

China factory gradually and completely digested Japanese technology, and re-employed old technicians who are very skilled in Japan. It only takes ten to fifteen years, and the whole related industries in Japan will be completely removed and turned to overseas production.

More and more Japanese companies are doing this, and Japanese companies are becoming more and more hollow. This is good for Japanese companies, but not good for Japan. This is also the reason why Trump clamored for "the return of manufacturing" all day after he took office.

In the past, Abe always wanted to use "Abenomics" to reverse the decadent Japanese economy, including loose monetary policy, proactive fiscal policy and structural reform. Judging from the current situation, the three arrows have basically failed, and it is unrealistic to hope for monetary and fiscal policies until the problem of industrial hollowing out is completely solved.

Now, there is a tendency for China enterprises to dig corners in Japan.

According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, many China enterprises go to Japan to buy Japanese SMEs with particularly strong technology, but they are troubled by succession problems or sales problems. For example, the new thinking technology of providing small motors for Intel once monopolized Apple's orders, but after Apple cut off the orders, the company almost went bankrupt. At this time, China lt Group Shenzhen Eurofilm Technology Co., Ltd. appeared and acquired this enterprise.

At present, 65,438+0,765,438+02 Japanese companies have been shared by other Asian companies, of which 565,438+0% is contributed by China, and 448 companies hold a holding position.

While China has been swimming to the top of the industrial chain, Japanese enterprises have been stagnant.

I think that under the current circumstances, Japan in the future may be equally pessimistic.

I have worked in Japan for six years, and I work in a big company in Japan, so I know more about Japan. Let me answer this question. Japan's economy began to decline in the 1990s, which is called the lost decade. In fact, this decline is far more than ten years. From the 1990s to the present, Japan's GDP is basically flat, or negative growth, or slightly positive growth. There are many reasons for their decline, both external and internal.

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, Japan's GDP reached 60% of that of the United States, making it the second largest economy in the world, which is the same as our country's current economic status. At that time, Japan's economy was booming, and the value of the house in Tokyo, Japan could buy the United States. Japan's automobile industry and electronics industry crushed the world, seriously impacting the automobile and electronics industries in the United States and Europe, and seriously threatening the hegemonic position of the United States. Therefore, the United States threw out the Plaza Accord, forced the yen to appreciate, and suppressed Toshiba with all its strength. As we all know, Japan is a long and narrow island country with extremely scarce resources, so the rapid development of Japan in the last century was an export-oriented economy. At that time, Japan had only a population of more than 100 million, and its consumption capacity was extremely limited compared with the production at that time. Therefore, the appreciation of the yen is a fatal blow to Japan. In fact, the United States is now using the same method to deal with us, but we are different. China is the most populous country in the world, and it is also the largest consumer market. Therefore, the central government put forward the strategy of strengthening internal circulation and striving for dual-cycle drive in time, which is to minimize the impact of poor exports on us.

In fact, Japan's economic recession and internal factors have played an important role. First, the Japanese have developed rapidly for decades, especially in various industries. They are full of confidence in all their industries and technologies, and they are also full of confidence in judging the development trend of many technologies. Such as the booming network economy and digital products. At that time, electronics manufacturers such as Sony, Toshiba and Hitachi were in the leading position in the world. They have always been superstitious about the development direction of their favorite CD and other products, and have not paid enough attention to networked products. The United States, with its strong strength, has promoted the development of the Internet and digital products under the Internet, which has spread rapidly around the world and surpassed Japan in this round of competition. On mobile phones, the Japanese were also very developed at first, but their mobile phones were not equipped with mobile phone cards, so they had to solidify the numbers in the hardware when applying. Japan has always been very contemptuous of calling cards used in other countries, resulting in the inability to change the number of mobile phones, the inability to use foreign mobile phones in Japan, and the poor use of Japanese mobile phones abroad. After many years, telephone cards have become popular all over the world. It was 20 10 years later that Softbank Group, controlled by Sun Zhengyi, first launched Apple mobile phones, and then mobile phone cards became popular in Japan. However, other countries have occupied the huge global mobile phone market, and the Japanese mobile phone industry is declining. The above are just two concrete examples of self-righteousness and blind self-confidence in various industries. In fact, this phenomenon exists in every industry.

Another internal cause of Japan's decline is that the Japanese are particularly conservative and stubborn, and they can't feel it without in-depth contact. The good side of this personality is that everything is rigorous, but now it is more and more hindering economic development, and many things are delayed by them for various worries and reasons. For example, Japan's high-speed rail, 1964, reached a speed of 200 kilometers per hour. Technically speaking, Japan's high-speed rail can travel more than 300 kilometers for more than 50 years, but they are worried about risks, accidents and other factors, and now the speed is still more than 200 kilometers per hour. In addition, many industries are already at a competitive disadvantage. For example, the typical home appliance industry is getting smaller and smaller. Some people will say that this is a strategic adjustment of the Japanese. Industrial adjustment has abandoned low-end manufacturing and turned to component research and development. In fact, this is a far-fetched explanation. If it is simply because of the cost, Japan's overseas investment in the world is very large. This problem can be completely solved by building factories overseas, but in fact, most of its industries have been transferred overseas and still cannot be solved. Now Japan focuses on the production of R&D and components, rather than the production of steering components. In fact, Japanese companies such as Sony, Toshiba and Hitachi had their own R&D and produced original components in the last century, but now they are forced to retreat to R&D and produce components. The key factors of retreat are internal conservatism, low efficiency, serious bureaucracy, unwillingness to take responsibility, unwillingness to take risks and lack of innovation consciousness. Many people have talked about it for a long time, and now many China enterprises buy Japanese enterprises. After the acquisition, through in-depth contact with the management process, we have a general impression that many old men in Japan are sitting in high positions in the company, holding high wages, living in the old way day after day, and always looking for reasons or reasons to veto development and innovation. Companies that have developed rapidly in Japan in recent years are basically non-Japanese bosses. For example, Masayoshi Son, the boss of Softbank, is Korean, and Liu, the boss of Uniqlo, is considered by traditional Japanese to be different from Japanese.

Of course, although Japan lost for many years, the thin camel is bigger than the horse, which was accumulated for a long time in the last century. Japan is still the world leader in economic and scientific strength, and the one-track personality of the Japanese has also made many professional and technical personnel work hard all their lives to engage in technical research, and they are still in a leading position in the research and development of various technologies. However, the development and innovation of the whole country has lagged far behind some countries. A typical example is that although Japan is in a leading position in scientific research as a whole, Japan has a Nobel Prize winner every year, but there has never been a Nobel Prize winner in economics. The reality now is that although the Japanese people have a solid foundation, they are basically unable to run now. Although other countries have a weak foundation, they still face the problems of aging, population decline, heavy social burden and perennial fiscal deficit. Coupled with the serious impact of this year's epidemic, it is increasingly difficult for Japan to get out of the quagmire.

There are always a bunch of self-righteous people. Speaking of Japan's stagnation, he will tell you that Japan is developed, Japan is advanced, and Japan is richer than China. ...

This is completely different, okay?

For example, Ma Yun's assets have shrunk by 90% and he is richer than you.

But it can't be said that shrinking heel is the same as shrinking heel, right? Otherwise, your math teacher won't let you go.

Japan's GDP has hardly increased since it peaked in the 1990s, and the world's top 500 enterprises have shrunk dramatically, from 70% in the United States to less than 1/3. ...

This is not stagnation. What is this?

As for why you are still a developed country and richer than you, you still can't catch up with others. This is another topic-even if Ma Yun 10 doesn't go to work, he is still richer than you.

Moreover, 30 years ago, Japanese GDP was 10 times that of China, and now it is only half that of China, and the gap has been greatly narrowed!

I suspect that these people are illiterate and have never studied? They say he talks about the east and the west, but he can't judge the questions? In this way, the exam is 0.

Sometimes I am really fooled by these self-righteous guys who owe me IQ.

Here are just the reasons for the stagnation:

1. The yen has appreciated.

Currency appreciation is beneficial to imports, while devaluation is beneficial to exports. The Plaza Agreement forced the yen to appreciate, which dealt a heavy blow to export-oriented Japan. How can we develop the economy if our products can't be sold?

The population is aging.

Japan is the most aging country in the world.

In fact, many developed countries are facing the problem of aging, but because European and American countries are either big immigrant countries or colonial empires, they are relatively open to foreign countries and have improved their population structure by introducing immigrants. )

However, Japan has always been a nation-state and is very exclusive to immigrants. Coupled with fierce competition in industrial society, low fertility will, low birth rate and high mortality rate.

How can a bunch of old men and women develop the economy?

3. External competition has intensified.

When Japan rose, there were few opponents.

Now, China and South Korea have also risen. The industrial structure of China, Japan and South Korea is similar. For example, electronics, automobiles, shipbuilding and steel are all crowded into a few industries, so money is naturally not so easy to earn.

4. America gave up.

The rise of Japan is largely the result of American support.

But with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Japan is useless. On the contrary, Japan once threatened the status of the United States when it was powerful.

Therefore, the United States naturally changed its support to suppression, and the Japanese economy stagnated.

First, Japan's economic strength in those days.

Japan was once the second largest country in the world economy after the United States and took the lead in realizing the "economic miracle" in Asia. In the special era of high oil prices, Japanese cars with low fuel consumption are very popular all over the world, and the output of Japanese cars exceeds that of the United States and becomes the first in the world.

The Japanese began to invest heavily in American real estate. 1986, the Japanese First Real Estate Company bought the Tiffany Building in new york at a record price. 1989 Mitsubishi bought the Rockefeller Center 14 building in downtown new york. At that time, the land price in Tokyo, Japan was four times that in the United States, so some Japanese investors joked that "selling Tokyo can buy the whole United States."

At that time, many Japanese believed that Japan was the center of the future world economy. However, from the middle and late 1980s, the bubble economy burst, especially after the 1997 Asian financial crisis, and entered a long-term economic growth dilemma. Some scholars think this is a lost decade for Japan, while others think it is twenty years. Of course, don't get me wrong. The long-term stagnation of the Japanese economy does not mean that the Japanese economy is useless. In some industrial fields, Japan still controls strong technological competitiveness, but at least compared with the high-speed growth of 10% that year, this gap is very obvious.

Second, the performance of Japan's long-term economic downturn

First, the economic growth rate has been very low. From the 1990s to the present, Japan's real GDP is basically below 2% except for a few years. Negative growth occurred in 1993, 1998, 1999, 2008, 2009 and 201year. The recent economic growth rates of 20 18 and 20 19 reached 0.79% and 0.65% respectively.

Second, deflation is obvious and private domestic demand is insufficient. Long-term deflation has become a symbolic feature of Japan's economy, and Japan's household consumption expenditure has been very low, basically in negative growth from 65438 to 0990. In other words, in the case of Japan's economic downturn, residents cannot or dare not spend too much.

Third, the reasons for the long-term economic downturn in Japan.

First, the bursting of the bubble economy has a long-term impact on the Japanese economy. 1985 On September 22nd, the finance ministers and central bank governors of the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and Britain held a meeting in new york Plaza Hotel, the main content of which was to let the yen appreciate. As a result, not only did Japanese exports suffer setbacks, but a large amount of funds flowed to real estate, triggering a bubble economy. 1After the bubble economy burst at the end of 1989, Japan's stock market plummeted, the assets of enterprises and individuals shrank sharply, and Japan's economy was seriously depressed.

The finance ministers of the five European and American countries who signed the Plaza Agreement that year.

Second, the international economic environment is unfavorable to Japan's economic growth.

Since 2000, the economic growth of the United States and the world has slowed down and the import demand has declined. Japan, which was originally exported to European and American markets, has also been seriously affected. The number of bankrupt enterprises in Japan has increased, the unemployment rate has risen and the stock market has fallen sharply.

Third, the Japanese government's macroeconomic policy is improper.

The Japanese government used a lot of debt to stimulate the economy, and as a result, the proportion of Japan's fiscal deficit in GDP was much higher than the international warning line. In 2000, the bad debts of Japanese enterprises and banks were as high as 100 trillion yen.

Fourth, the lag of industrial structure adjustment is an important reason for Japan's economic downturn.

In 1990s, European and American countries successfully upgraded their industrial structure and vigorously developed the information industry. Multinational enterprises such as Microsoft, Intel, IBM, Motorola and Nokia have risen rapidly, but Japan has lost its competitiveness in the competition with European and American enterprises, and even been overtaken by South Korea and Taiwan Province Province of China in some information industries. The driving force of Japan's economic growth has declined, and most Japanese manufacturing industries have invested overseas, which has led to a serious hollowing out of domestic industries in Japan, and a few industries have monopolized in Japan, which has led to a long-term depression of Japan's economy and can no longer achieve high growth rate.

I recommend that you download an APPj called "Himalaya" and then search for the program "Quiet Japan", which contains the answer you want.

Japan's economy reached about 60% of that of the United States in the 1990s, and then the American economy soared. But Japan's economic data has been hovering around $4 trillion. For more than 20 years, Japan's economic data has been tepid, which makes many people feel that the Japanese economy has lost its former glory.

But is this really the case? In fact, these are only superficial phenomena. Japan embarked on the road of developing real estate after experiencing the overbearing Plaza Agreement of the United States, but it was also impacted by the real estate bubble, which made Japan's economy suffer a great blow and did not recover for many years. Japan's economy was almost dragged down by the United States, but Japan did not admit defeat, but embarked on another road.

Japan's scientific and technological strength ranks first in the world. Japan has not only strong economic data, but also withstood the economic crisis with the support of science and technology. However, it gives the impression that the Japanese economy has stopped growing. In fact, Japan's domestic economy has reached a bottleneck. In order to prevent the suspicion and suppression of the United States, Japan has stabilized its domestic economy and expanded its economic scale to the international level.

Japan does seem to have a bottleneck in its local economy, but the development of Japanese enterprises in the international arena is very fierce. As long as the domestic economic development remains stable and does not challenge the authority of the United States, Japan itself will rarely be specifically targeted by the United States. This is also to prevent the occurrence of the second square agreement. The Japanese have suffered, so they can't go the same way. In fact, the Japanese also know that the United States has a firm attitude towards the world's second child, so they try their best to avoid becoming the world's second child by various means.

Japan's domestic economic index does not rise, just to prevent the United States from taking a stand on the United States. Moreover, because Japan is a small country with resources and territory after all, when its domestic development is saturated, it is a way for enterprises to go out and break through the original thinking, so that they will not be confined to a certain range, nor will they be stared at by the United States all day. With Japan's current level of science and technology, it is impossible to say that Japan's economy is only the present scale. It can only be said that Japan hides economic data.

Stopping for 20 years is only a superficial illusion. Those who truly believe that Japan's economy is not developing are fools. Japan's economic data should actually be hidden. A large number of Japanese enterprises have moved their industries abroad for better development and broader space. A considerable part of these transferred industries are not included in the economic index. Don't think that our development in recent years has underestimated Japan. In fact, Japan is deeply hidden.

Everything is that we don't want the United States to play too much drama for itself. The second child in the world, the United States is the key target, such as Britain, such as the former Soviet Union, such as Japan in the past, such as us now, but it is true that Japan's economic data has not risen. There are three reasons. First, Japan had a serious economic bubble in the past, and there was too much water in it. Squeezed water for more than ten or twenty years. The second is to avoid the attention of the United States. Third, the economy has secretly moved out.

Japan's economic stagnation for more than 20 years has both internal and external causes. The external cause is well known to all, that is, direct intervention and suppression from the United States. The internal cause is a bit complicated, not only because the Japanese have stumbled over speculation, but also because the direction of science and technology is wrong.

One of the most obvious external causes of Japan's economy is the Plaza Accord, which is widely reported in the news. At that time, Japan and European powers signed contracts with the US imperialists, and their currencies appreciated against the US dollar. However, the sharp rise of the yen, on the one hand, hit Japan's exports, on the other hand, punctured the property market bubble, leading to a sudden decline in Japan's economy. This blow has affected for more than 20 years until today.

According to online news, the US imperialists have a Royal Guards in Japan, whose full name is the Special Search Headquarters of the Tokyo District Prosecutor's Office. This procuratorial organ can handle cases independently without the influence of Japanese officials, and anyone from the prime minister to ordinary employees can be arrested. In fact, as we all know, they specially arrest Japanese officials who affect the interests of American imperialism. Why did you bring this up? Because this organization finally made me understand why Japan will take the initiative to reduce exports to the United States, such as cars. Japanese officials directly stipulated to automakers that they were not allowed to sell to the United States.

This is still Japanese officials serving Japan! It is simply an American official of the US representative office in Japan! The recent problems between China and the United States tell us a story from Japan: in the 1970s, Japan's chip industry tended to surpass its American counterparts. By 1980, Hewlett-Packard Company of the United States found that the yield of Japanese chips far exceeded that of American counterparts. 1986, the United States forced Japan to sign a semiconductor agreement, which not only required Japan to raise the price of its products in the United States, but also required Japan to open 20% of its internal market to American enterprises. 199 1 year, the United States forced Japan to sign a new semiconductor agreement.

So today, Japan can be said to be the monopoly of the front end of the chip industry: for example, Japanese companies have always maintained an absolute advantage in the production of mask aligner, such as the production of photoresist, such as wafers and so on. Originally, Japan had a competitive advantage in the terminal field, but it was suppressed by the United States.

Therefore, Japan's scientific and technological fields are ruthlessly suppressed by the United States, making it impossible for them to continue to develop in cutting-edge fields and occupy the commanding heights and profits of the most cutting-edge industries. The most remarkable external performance is that Japan's per capita GDP is only in the early 40 thousand dollars, while the United States has reached 65 thousand dollars.

As for the internal cause of Japan, opportunism is really unavoidable. Don't be fascinated by the so-called craftsman spirit in Japan. There are many cases of product fraud and data fraud in large Japanese companies, such as Takada's "airbag door" incident and Mitsubishi's fuel consumption fraud. This problem is the same as Japan's real estate bubble in the 1990s: after getting rich, not everyone wants to engage in scientific research and development, but to speculate for fun.

This may also indirectly affect Japan's science and technology tree. For example, TV sets, today we all know about digital TV, but in the 1990s, no one knew which direction analog TV technology and digital TV technology would develop. The Japanese insist on analog technology rather than digital technology. If many people were not addicted to speculation at the beginning and more enterprises and personnel were allowed to settle down and engage in technology research and development, Japan's information technology industry today would not have a decent local giant! So Japan is still fooling around in the old industry 30 years ago. Although technology is constantly improving, it does lead to economic stagnation.

Therefore, how important it is for a country to be independent. If you are pinched by others, you will always rely on others' faces to eat, saying that you will not be allowed to develop cutting-edge industries. Moreover, after making money, you really can't stop in the frontier science and technology field. You have to develop multiple routes in parallel and try and make mistakes constantly, so that you can not lag behind other powerful countries.

Egg crap? Who says Japan's economy has been stagnant for 20 years? Look at people's gnp, science and technology, and people's living standards! Don't ask such ignorant questions, learn more knowledge and study abroad when you have time!

I can only say that Japan chose the wrong road. At that time, it was actually Japan's prosperous economy that prompted Japan to make a choice and choose a future path. Unfortunately, Japan chose the wrong one.

In fact, the first two items continue to maintain the real economy, and the benefits of doing so are very obvious. Japan's real economy is quite stable, and Japanese cars rank first in the world. This sentence is by no means just talk. Among the major powers, Japan is the only country that does not impose tariffs on imported cars. This shows Japan's confidence in its automobile industry, but its shortcomings are also obvious. After all, the real economy comes slowly.

So Japan chose the second kind of backward finance. And Japan's finance is introduced with real estate as the starting point. Japan's choice of real estate is simply a big mistake. Because Japan has such a large territory and a large population. This determines that every Japanese has his own house. It only takes 20 years. But a house, at least its life cycle is 50 years, that is to say, after 20 years, Japanese real estate companies are about to face the problem that a house cannot be sold.

Therefore, Japanese real estate unexpectedly collapsed and the stock market collapsed. That year, how many Japanese jumped off a building, the richest man in Japan became the first loser.

In fact, this shows that Japan was blinded by prosperity and did not see the crisis behind it. At this point, South Korea has learned the lessons from Japan and still chooses to develop real estate. However, South Korea knows that its territory is smaller than that of Japan and its population is smaller than that of Japan. Therefore, going out decisively, Korean real estate has gone out of the world, out of Asia and into the world. Many landmark buildings in the world were built by Korean real estate companies. For example, the tallest tower in the world at first. The Twin Towers in Kuala Lumpur. For example, the tallest Burj Khalifa in the world is built by a Korean real estate company.

So Japan lost 20 years and 30 years because. Japan has chosen the wrong path. Since you have chosen the wrong path, you must pay the price. But in fact, you can't say that you made the wrong choice, but you didn't take this road well and eventually overturned.

Part of the reason is that Japan is not a sovereign and independent country. No matter how to whitewash the Plaza Agreement, we should also see that the Plaza Agreement was used by the United States to attack Japan. Because the United States does not allow Japan's economy to surpass that of the United States, that Japan will be dissatisfied with American control and not enough to become a loyal dog of the United States has exceeded the responsibility and mission entrusted to Japan by the United States.

The lessons of Japan tell us, but the higher a country stands, if it does not continue to climb. Waiting for him is a cliff.

Japan's economy has been expanding for twenty years, and the investment and layout of their enterprises abroad is larger than that of any other country. This is foreign, not domestic. Don't be misled by the appearance of economic data. Only Japan's GDP should be regarded as Japan's GNP rather than GDP.