What do you think of the recent pork price?

According to the February 2 1 65438 news of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), in view of the recent rapid drop in domestic pig prices, the NDRC is studying how to ensure market supply and price stability. In the future, we will continue to pay close attention to market supply and demand and price dynamics, and take reserve adjustment measures such as purchasing and storage when necessary to promote the long-term healthy development of the live pig market.

The price of pigs has dropped by nearly 30% in a month.

A pig breeding head enterprise once told China reporter: "According to the normal profit level of the industry, the pig price is 20-25 yuan/kg."

At present, the price of live pigs has approached the edge of maintaining normal profitability. According to the data of the wholesale market price information system of the Information Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on February 20th, 65438, the national wholesale price of live pigs was 20 yuan/kg, which was nearly 30% lower than that of a month ago.

The National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center (NDRC) reported on June 5438+February 16: Although the price of pigs fell to a low level, with the further weakening of terminal consumption, the price of pigs fluctuated and fell in the week, and the digestion speed of products continued to slow down. The pressure of moving goods by breeding units gradually increased, and the intention of lowering prices and shipping was strong. At present, the supply of live pigs is abundant, and the terminal market lacks favorable support. It is expected that the short-term pig price will still fall, and the expected profit of pigs will continue to shrink.

To this end, the price department of the National Development and Reform Commission recently organized a video conference to listen to the opinions of industry experts and some market institutions. Experts pointed out that the recent rapid decline in the price of live pigs was mainly affected by the weakening of pork consumption and the increase in the supply of live pigs at the end of the year. Experts believe that the current domestic pig production capacity is in the overall reasonable range, there is no overcapacity, and the weak market consumption is temporary, so farmers need not worry too much. Experts advise farmers to reasonably arrange the pace of production and operation, don't panic, and keep the pig production capacity basically stable; Pork processing enterprises appropriately increase commercial inventory and expand market demand, which will promote the smooth operation of the live pig market.

Development and Reform Commission: Adjust purchasing and storage when necessary.

The National Development and Reform Commission 65438+February 65438+June said that during the week from February 5 to 9, the average retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by less than 30% year-on-year, which was out of the warning range of excessive price increase. Since the beginning of this year, the price of live pigs has experienced many obvious fluctuations.

"Meat hurts people, and meat hurts farmers." With the bottoming out of the pig cycle, the price of live pigs began to fluctuate in the middle and late June this year. In July and September, the price of live pigs experienced a rapid increase respectively. During this period, the National Development and Reform Commission strengthened market supervision by interviewing some breeding enterprises and slaughtering enterprises, severely punished illegal acts such as fabricating and spreading price increase information and driving up prices, and increased the supply of pork reserves to ensure the stability of pig prices.

This time, the pig price has dropped rapidly. The National Development and Reform Commission once again clearly pointed out that it attaches great importance to the work of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the pig market, and will continue to pay close attention to market supply and demand and price dynamics, and take reserve adjustment measures such as purchasing and storage when necessary to promote the long-term healthy development of the pig market.

Looking forward to the future, Minsheng Securities Research Report pointed out that Yongyi Consulting data showed that the sow stock had shown signs of loosening in June 5438+065438+ 10.

In the case that the production capacity has not been fully restored, the short-term decline in pig prices has suppressed the mood of farmers/farms, which may make the height and duration of the current pig cycle rise again exceed expectations.

The latest research report of Dongxing Securities also believes that the actual mood of the industry in the second half of the year is not positive. With the continuous decline of pig price since 1 1, the pig production capacity may be turned on again. "Under the dual effects of weak actual replenishment and rebound in consumption, pig prices are expected to remain relatively prosperous next year."