Winter has officially arrived! Five key issues in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine

165438+1On October 27th, the weather in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, was "snowy, with a temperature of 0- 1 Celsius".

Winter has really come.

Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, western weapons have helped Ukraine win local counterattacks on the eastern and southern fronts, but Russia still controls about 20% of Ukraine's territory. At the same time, Russian air strikes that destroyed energy and power systems in various parts of Ukraine continued.

As the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict entered the winter, five key issues surfaced:

1. How will winter affect the battle process?

The conflict has entered the first month of 10. With the deterioration of weather and outdoor conditions, fighting is expected to decrease in general.

Colin Carr, US Deputy Secretary of Defense, said last week that "the bad weather in Ukraine" had begun to slow down the fighting, and muddy weather made it difficult for the warring sides to launch a large-scale attack.

He told reporters: "I think this challenge will become more severe in the next few weeks. We must see if the fighting will slow down."

According to the Pentagon, in response to the severe winter, the United States has provided the Ukrainian army with cold protection equipment, including tens of thousands of snowcoats, wool hats, boots and gloves, as well as generators and tents.

Second, will cold become a "weapon"?

Capitol Hill believes that the Russian army is weaponizing the cold. Last week, Russia launched air strikes on the infrastructure of major Ukrainian cities such as Kiev and Lviv. The head of the Ukrainian electric power company said on the 26th that at present, there is no thermal power plant or hydropower station in Ukraine intact.

According to Al Jazeera reported on the 27th, Kiev Mayor Kritchenko said on the telegraph channel that 90% of residential buildings in the Ukrainian capital have resumed heating and water supply has been restored to every household. However, a quarter of the city's residents still have no electricity supply. According to the weather forecast, there will be heavy snow in Kiev on the evening of the 27th, the temperature will drop below zero, and the snowfall will last until the middle of this week.

Kiev residents lined up in the snow to get food.

Kruger, director of the European region of the World Health Organization, said that Ukraine's medical system is expected to suffer a heavy blow in winter. As the weather gets colder, two to three million people may be displaced in the coming months.

There is also a general view that when NATO countries are forced to burn firewood to keep warm, they will begin to shake NATO's support for Ukrainians. Cold may not be a weapon, but energy is.

Third, can Russia make progress on the Eastern Front?

The British Ministry of Defence issued a tweet on the 27th, saying that in the past two weeks, there was a fierce battle between two towns in Donetsk province in eastern Ukraine. Both Russia and Ukraine have invested a lot of money. "Fierce wars may continue to break out in this region in the future, partly because Russia believes that this region may become the starting point for future northward attacks and then seize the rest of Donetsk controlled by Ukraine."

Reports show that the struggle in Donetsk has escalated in the past week. According to western observers, this is because Russian troops will inevitably send more troops and weapons to the east after withdrawing from southern Hellson.

Putnik News Agency & Radio reported on 27th that Ukrainian troops shelled Donetsk and Yasinovataya from midnight on 26th to early morning on 27th, firing nine shells. These include 155 mm caliber shells in active service in NATO countries.

Fourth, how many Russian recruits can fight?

On the eve of Russian Mother's Day,1October 25th, 165438+ Putin met with 17 military mothers who participated in special military operations in Ukraine. He said that the mother's upbringing of her children is the main foundation of Russia's existence and the history of the whole country. Putin also said that Russia will definitely achieve the goal of military operations in Ukraine.

More than two months ago, Putin announced the recruitment of 300,000 reservists. Western media generally estimate that it will take at least a few months for these reservists to be trained, equipped and sent to the battlefield.

However, the American War Research Institute recently released a report that the first batch of new Russian troops have completed training and have been deployed in Zaporoge, Lugansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. The report also said that "Russian troops may continue to use mobilized and redeployed soldiers to re-launch offensive operations in Donetsk and maintain defensive positions in Lugansk."

Last Friday, when meeting with military mothers, Putin said that under the framework of partial mobilization, there is no need to recruit soldiers. "Hill" said that as the conflict develops into a protracted war, the possibility of a "second wave" of military mobilization in Moscow in June+February, 5438 and June+10/October next year cannot be ruled out.

Fifth, can the two sides have a dialogue?

Mili, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that Ukraine's military victory in "driving Russian troops out of Ukraine, including Crimea" was "not high". A week ago, Millie said at a meeting in new york that both sides should admit that military victory is impossible and the war must be ended through negotiations.

However, Kirby, the strategic communication coordinator of the White House National Security Council, told reporters last week that only Ukrainian President Zelensky can decide when he is ready to talk to the Russians. "No one in the United States is pushing, urging or pushing him to sit at the negotiating table."

So far, neither Russia nor Ukraine has sent a clear signal of negotiation, but the posture of the United States watching the fire from the other side is very clear.

Perhaps there should be a sixth key question: as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict enters the winter, what choices will taxpayers in the United States and the European Union face? Are you still willing to donate the money that should have been spent on children to military enterprises?

Extended reading:

Putin's meeting with the mothers of Ukrainian soldiers killed in battle exposed many deep-seated problems.

Niu kissed WeChat message, which was a very special meeting. In the middle of one side of the long table is Putin, next to and opposite to him is the mother of 17 Russian soldiers.

Some mothers wear dark headscarves, which should be a sign of mourning-their sons were unfortunately killed on the battlefield.

In front of them, Putin said emotionally: "I want you to know that I personally, as well as all the leaders of the country, share your pain, and nothing can replace the lost sons, especially the mothers, who gave us life and raised us."

He also told a mother: "In Russia, people died of vodka, and their lives were ignored. But your son is still alive and achieved his goal. He didn't die in vain. "

I watched some videos and records of this meeting, and I was really emotional.

Putin meets mother of Ukrainian soldiers killed in battle

Three observation angles.

First of all, why is this meeting held?

Russian mother, carrying too much.

Putin said that this meeting was personally proposed by him, "because I want to listen to your opinions and listen to your first-hand assessment. I have received a lot of information from various sources, but your assessment, your opinions, ideas and suggestions are completely different. I will try to ensure that everything we discuss today will be considered and put into practice. "

The opinions of mothers are very important.

Because in western media reports, 654.38 million Russian soldiers and 654.38 million Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or injured. After Putin ordered some war mobilization, many Russians fled to other countries, and some mothers also publicly complained that Putin sent their sons to war as "cannon fodder."

Putin is also under great pressure, and the support of mothers is very important.

During this meeting, Putin also appeased Russian mothers, who are very concerned about their children. He told his mother that he often talked with Russian soldiers and praised their son as a "hero".

He also reminded mothers not to believe all kinds of lies on TV or on the Internet.

In fact, at least one reason for the Russian army's hip-pulling is low morale, which is related to various rumors on the Internet. Therefore, Putin also specifically said that life is more complicated and diverse than what is shown on TV or on the Internet. People should not trust the Internet completely, because it is full of all kinds of false stories, deception and lies, and information attack is another way of struggle.

Second, the meeting exposed many problems.

Seeing some analysis of western media, Putin's meeting was carefully arranged, and many mothers present were pro-Putin activists.

It seems to be a thing, but it's not a thing at all. Meeting Putin's mother must be a supporter of the Russian government. Will the Kremlin be stupid enough to find some opponents to quarrel with Putin face to face?

Even after careful arrangement, mothers still speak freely according to the detailed minutes of the meeting, which does expose many deep-seated problems.

For example, a Cossack mother said that her husband and two sons are both patriots in the army, but their equipment is very problematic.

Especially in the special forces, the Ministry of National Defense does provide clothes and boots, but she wants to say a few words for her youngest son who is a scout. He needs a special uniform: light and warm, suitable for different seasons and different colors. But they don't have camouflage uniforms.

Also, her eldest son is a sniper, without camouflage, only a uniform. Because the trenches are muddy, damp and cold, and the uniforms are badly worn, fires are not allowed in the trenches, and many soldiers are sick. Her husband is a machine gunner. In just a few months, his ammunition transport vehicle broke down and they had to carry ammunition cans themselves.

This is the voice from Russian mother, which should be very real. Even in a constructive tone, it still exposes many problems.

Logistics problems, soldiers need camouflage uniforms, camouflage uniforms can not only keep warm, but also protect lives, but the Russian front is very scarce.

The machine gunner needs ammunition supply, but the ammunition truck is broken and he can only carry it himself. How does he fight?

Looking at Putin's reaction, it seems that I still don't believe it. After his mother finished, he also asked: I heard that materials and meals have improved. Is your information up to date?

Mother told Putin: Yes. Why do I know? Because my sons will write to me in such a situation: Mom, I need this, this, this, this. Ok, we have a good local shop where you can buy all these.

Putin meets mother of Ukrainian soldiers killed in battle

Third, the more distressing fact.

Apart from my mother's tears, I just carefully watched the conversation between Putin and his mothers, and some details were really hard to bear.

A mother told Putin that when the new territory was "liberated", there were many homeless children in the war zone. The good news is that our soldiers eat well, so there is no problem. They often share food with local people, especially children. These biscuits, sweets and so on make them very happy.

Therefore, she suggested that we should strengthen our help to these children. They cannot be abandoned. They can at least be placed in villas in border areas. Many of them are empty now. It is very cold and humid here, and there is no electricity, water or food. This is a big problem.

Regardless of political position, this is a mother's proposal.

What does this mean?

The battlefield was fierce, leaving a large number of homeless children. Perhaps, they are only temporarily separated from their parents and relatives, or they have lost their parents forever.

They are struggling on the verge of life and death. There is no electricity, no water and no food, so they are happy to eat some biscuits and sweets.

But the situation is not optimistic. After all, it is a war zone and the environment is very bad. Since Russia has taken over this area, it should speed up its assistance to them.

After listening to his mother's words, Putin also said that although Russia has also launched relevant rescue work, it is not enough, and some special measures related to finding these children should be taken. "We will definitely deal with this problem."

It's bad enough that they are children. No matter what political position they hold, they are the most innocent.

Putin meets mother of Ukrainian soldiers killed in battle

What do you think in the end?

Three o'clock is simple.

1, Putin also realized the seriousness of the problem.

Mother's pain needs comfort; Mothers' dissatisfaction needs to be answered. On the eve of Russian Mother's Day, I specially set aside time to chat with 17' s mothers and listen to their opinions, suggestions and nagging. Some words are really sensational, not only for mothers, but also for Russia as a whole and Putin's superiors.

Putin didn't expect to expose these problems.

Looking at the dialogue record, Putin should never have imagined that the mothers raised a series of practical problems. Some of them may have improved, but in fact they haven't made much progress. Even front-line soldiers don't even have enough camouflage uniforms. What does this mean? It shows that there are serious problems with Russian military supplies, and it also shows that many things are clear when you listen.

3. Such a tragedy should not continue.

There are really too many tragedies in this world. Putin's special meeting only talked about Russia. If you count the Ukrainian side, really, how many tragedies and tragedies are there? Udon river is poor, once a dream girl; How many poor children have lost their childhood; Poor mother, so I shed tears. This war, or really don't fight again.

Original title: Putin will expose many deep-seated problems.