What is the future trend of LPR?

In the next 10 year, LPR is more likely to decline.

First of all, from the historical situation of our country, the financing price has been declining. 190' s, the deposit and loan interest rate was above 10%, and now it is basically below 5%.

Secondly, from foreign experience, interest rates in Europe, Japan and other places have been zero or even negative. At present, the domestic interest rate is around 5%, and there is still a lot of room for decline.

Finally, from the current tone of the People's Bank of China, short-term interest rate cuts are high probability events, and reducing financing costs is also a high probability event.

In a word, according to historical prediction, LPR is more likely to decline.

In addition, we can also analyze the future interest rate trend from the "supply and demand relationship" of economics.

First of all, the whole world is doing a lot of quantitative easing to increase the money supply. At present, the money supply has greatly exceeded the actual demand, that is, inflation is rising and the currency is depreciating, in other words, the price of money is falling, in other words, the price of LPR will fall.

Secondly, it is easy to release water and difficult to tighten it. If the money supply is contracted, it is difficult to explain, and easing is a happy thing. Therefore, monetary tightening is a short-term and temporary measure, while easing is a long-term trend. Further easing and further depreciation led to a further decline in LPR.

Finally, the future is the innovation market, the capital shortage stage has passed, and the future is the shortage of human resources. Correspondingly, the value of money drops, that is, the price of money drops relatively, that is, the LPR drops.