Talk about sales

How effective is the "price war"? See you in March.

We still can't underestimate the impact of the Spring Festival holiday and policy switching. The automobile market of 65438+ 10 and February has always been a "demon".

We have given a point before. When comparing the "demon" months, we should count 1 together with February, which is more referential. These days, the Federation's data has been released. In 20231-February, the domestic retail sales totaled 2.679 million vehicles, down 19.8% year-on-year, and "down by 20%". This decline is really worrying. Because as long as the Chinese New Year is over, the new energy state subsidies and fuel vehicle purchase subsidies will be withdrawn, which will inevitably have a certain overdraft effect on the car sales at the end of the year.

Perhaps, many people are thinking about another reason: it must be that ordinary people have no money in their pockets and don't buy a car. Recently, the frenzy of "price war" swept to fuel vehicles, which seems to confirm this truth. "Supply exceeds demand, cars can't be sold, and they are all selling at reduced prices." Is it that serious? We are also thinking about this problem.

The market is hierarchical: ice and fire are dual, and the temperature is self-aware.

There are two main directions for the stratification of the automobile market:

1, joint venture and independent stratification;

2. Fuel vehicles and new energy sources are being stratified.

According to the data of the Federation, the retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands in February was 480,000 vehicles, down 12% year-on-year and up 2% quarter-on-quarter. Among them, the retail share of German brands was 20.6%, a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points; The retail share of Japanese brands was 17.6%, down 5.4 percentage points year-on-year.

In contrast, the conclusion is clear. The share of joint venture brands is declining. After the Japanese passed the mountain, they began to decline. The reason is also clear:

1, a Japanese brand, has no new energy vehicles to play with, and cannot grasp the incremental market;

2. The fuel-saving advantage of Japanese brands is being compared with the cost advantage of independent hybrid and pure electric vehicles, and then the sales volume is not smooth, which leads to the decline of terminal prices, and even the advantage of high value-keeping rate of Japanese cars has collapsed.

On the other hand, self-owned brands sold 7,654.38+million vehicles in February, up 29% year-on-year and 65,438+02% quarter-on-quarter. Even if the market share is included, the retail sales of independent brands reached 5 1. 1% in February, up by 7 percentage points year-on-year; Including1-February, the retail share of independent brands also reached 50%, up 9.8 percentage points year-on-year. The situation of joint venture brands is like the "middle layer" of sandwich biscuits. Up, luxury brands seek sales, but down, brand power is absolutely crushed; Downward, independent brands attack, product advantages are all caught up, and the brand power of joint ventures is consumed. There is no doubt that the "middle layer" is the most fragile. At present, there is no new energy product that can be regarded as a pillar, and the increment is hard to find. Now the theme is "stop bleeding".

Let's talk about the stratification of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles. There is a set of "worrying" data:1-During February, the retail sales of domestic automobile market decreased 19.8% year-on-year, while the retail sales of new energy still increased by 22.8% year-on-year. So, how much has the retail sales of fuel vehicles decreased? The answer is 29.6%, which is equivalent to a drop of nearly 30%. Therefore, fuel vehicles are trying to recover the decline, and new energy sources are chasing increments. From the permeability, we can also see the growth momentum of new energy. In February, the retail penetration rate of new energy in China was 3 1.6%, which was 10 percentage point higher than the penetration rate of 2 1.7% in February. Among them, the new energy penetration rate of independent brands is 52.9%; The new energy penetration rate of luxury brands is 22.6% (including Tesla); The new energy penetration rate of mainstream joint venture brands is only 4.2%. Why is it so difficult to establish a joint venture brand? The answer is self-evident.

The price reduction is very fragrant, but the local water is different.

Wuhan has been searching for huge car subsidies these days. Citroen, which was not paid attention to before, is famous for its low price. After the new energy, it is of course a fact that fuel vehicles will start a "price war", but we must also see clearly that this subsidy is not that simple. Let's start with Citroen's low-priced cars and draw a key point. This is a "government-enterprise car subsidy", which is equivalent to a little from local car companies and a little from local governments. So there is a relatively high price reduction.

It is not a precedent in Wuhan that local governments provide car purchase subsidies to stimulate local car consumption. In fact, many places have done it, but this time Wuhan and Citroen "out of the circle". For example, last year, Jiading, Shanghai had a car subsidy of 1 1,000,20000, which could be fuel vehicles or new energy sources. We know that different districts in Shenzhen also have different subsidies. However, there are usually several limitations:

1, subsidize local car companies, because car companies are generally large local taxpayers, provide subsidies, and the fertilizer will not flow out;

2. Subsidize local consumers, who may settle here or apply for temporary residence permits, indicating that tax payment and consumption are in the local area.

The specific form of subsidy may be direct cash return, or it may be the issuance of "large consumption coupons". For users who just need to buy a car, the price is really cheap, which is definitely a good thing. It is said that there are certain restrictions on buying Citroen in Hubei. For example, if you need a local account, you need to buy it at the guide price first, and the purchase tax is also calculated at the guide price. Then the subsidy amount is transferred to your personal account. The whole process is long.

In addition, it cannot be ignored that cars are a market for buying and selling games after all. The price of new energy vehicles is relatively transparent. Many direct stores sell according to the guide price, and generally do not bargain. So, this is what government subsidies are all about. However, fuel cars usually have a preferential margin. After the introduction of government subsidies, the original preferential prices may be withdrawn. More people buy, the price will go up, or some decoration is needed. The depth varies from place to place, but as far as the overall environment is concerned, the lower car price is indeed a trend.

Does the switch of National Six B have such a big impact?

You should also hear another saying that the big price reduction of fuel vehicles is related to the official entry into force of the "National Six B" standard in early July. It is said that after July, cars that are not "National Six B Standards" cannot be licensed, and fuel vehicles will be retired. Let me talk about it first. What is "National Six"? Its full name is "the sixth national emission standard for motor vehicle pollutants". This is for the car company. The cars they produce need to meet emission standards. According to the regulations, the implementation of "National Six" is divided into two stages: A and B. In the first stage, from July 1 day, 2020, cars below the National Six A standard are not allowed to be sold, registered or licensed. In the second stage, from July 1 day, 2023, cars below the national B standard cannot be sold, registered or licensed.

This time, it is mainly a nationwide switch. For example, Beijing, Shanghai and other cities implemented the national six B standard on 20 19. Whenever emission standards are switched, there is indeed a wave of price disturbance. Reduce the price and sell the old standard as soon as possible; After that, the price rebounded and continued to sell new standard cars. Then, the question is, have all the models of the National Sixth A been reduced in price? How many "national six A-share cars" are there in China? We got a group of research reports, and the accurate data is not easy to count, but the general situation is as follows: among luxury brands, BMW and Mercedes-Benz have basically switched, and Audi is under a little pressure; Among the joint venture brands, most of Volkswagen's models have been switched, and the Japanese switching pressure is relatively high; Autonomous switching is more active, and the current pressure is relatively small. Only some models with unfortunate replacement cycles have caught up.

But one thing is clear, because the emission standard needs to specify the sales volume of the warehouse, which is definitely not as much as the online 6 million. It is estimated that there will be hundreds of thousands of vehicles. To sum up, the switch of National Sixth B will definitely bring pressure to car companies to clean up their inventory, but it still needs to be treated calmly. This is not the absolute main cause of the "price war". Don't be brought into the rhythm. The impact of the switch of the National Sixth B on each car company is also different.

Write it at the end

The core factor is "oversupply". As long as we build more and buy less, the "price war" will continue. Undoubtedly, this wave of price war will inevitably cause great disturbance to the sales rhythm and profit release of various car companies.

The author of this article is helping Bay.

This article comes from the author's Kicking Car Gang, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author if reproduced in any form. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.