Biden cannot change everything, he can only watch the United States lose its hegemony step by step

Let’s look back at the history of any country. From prosperity to decline, and then from decline to collapse, the most direct reason is: money. Of course, this money refers to national finance, not private wealth.

But now the United States has gone off track and is running wildly to become the poorest country in the world.

In the first half of 2021, the U.S. national debt has exceeded US$28 trillion, and U.S. President Biden will continue to turn on the money printing press and continue to increase debt.

Where did the U.S. debt problem come from?

In fact, after entering the 21st century, the fiscal revenue of U.S. governments at all levels has shown a "strong growth momentum" - increasing from 4.1 trillion U.S. dollars to 6.8 trillion U.S. dollars in fiscal year 2019. It further increased to US$7.2 trillion in fiscal year 2020. The annual fiscal revenue of the United States exceeds the annual GDP of most countries in the world, such as Japan and Germany. Of this record-breaking US$7.2 trillion, the fiscal revenue attributed to the US federal government is approximately US$3.6 trillion, accounting for exactly 50%; the fiscal revenue attributed to US state governments at all levels exceeds US$2 trillion, accounting for 28%; The fiscal 2020 revenue of other levels of local governments slightly exceeded $1.5 trillion, accounting for about 21%.

In fiscal year 2020, fiscal expenditures by U.S. governments at all levels reached US$9.8 trillion, which was US$2.6 trillion higher than revenue, setting a new historical record. Among them, the U.S. federal government’s fiscal expenditure in fiscal year 2020 exceeded US$6.6 trillion, and the fiscal deficit reached US$3.1 trillion. This is the direct reason why the US national debt continues to hit new highs.

After taking office, Biden passed a US$1.9 trillion rescue plan and announced a US$2.25 trillion employment plan in order to restore economic development and "defeat China." It also caused the U.S. federal government's fiscal deficit to hit a high point in March, reaching $660 billion, becoming the third-highest monthly fiscal deficit in U.S. history. In the past, U.S. fiscal expenditures were low in the first half of the year.

What is this concept?

In 2020, the tycoon Saudi Arabia, which ranks 20th in global GDP and is the world's largest oil exporter, sold only US$760 billion in oil for a year, and the United States almost lost money this month.

It can be expected that as Biden’s plan continues to be implemented, the U.S. fiscal deficit will soar. Can the United States still be able to repay the money? Will you still pay back the money? The current conclusion is that it is impossible.

When will the dollar bubble burst?

In 2020, the total GDP of the United States is 20.8 trillion U.S. dollars, and the national debt exceeds 27 trillion U.S. dollars. However, the internationally recognized national debt warning line standard is not to exceed 100~120 of GDP. Calculated based on the GDP of the United States in 2020, its debt ratio is more than 130, which has greatly exceeded the international warning level.

In the first half of fiscal year 2021, that is, from October 2020 to March 2021, the U.S. federal government’s fiscal deficit has risen to US$1.7 trillion, a record high for the same period in history.

The consequence of this is that the national credit of the United States continues to decline, and the world is accelerating away from the US dollar; as of now, at least 53 countries, including Russia, Germany, Japan, and Vietnam, have traded non-US dollar oil, signed currency swaps, and sold “De-dollarization” of U.S. debt and other means. According to US media statistics, as of December 2020, 29 countries around the world, including China, Japan, and Germany, have sold nearly US$1 trillion in US debt.

The current U.S. government can only make ends meet and can only expand the dollar bubble until it is shattered when the bubble is punctured.

Then there are many questions, why can’t the United States increase revenue and reduce expenditure? The United States is already very powerful in open source, so why can’t it reduce expenditures? Here we will know by looking at the fiscal expenditures of the United States.

So where does the money in the United States go?

There are three main fiscal expenditures in the United States: mandatory spending (Mandatory Spending) accounting for about 62%, interest payments on the national debt (Interest Payments on the National Debt, accounting for about 8%, and discretionary spending (Discretionary Spending), accounting for about 30%.

The first is that mandatory spending accounts for about 62%.

To put it simply, this part should be expenditures that are “taken from the people and used for the people”, such as: Social Security and Medicare projects for American retirees and federal benefits such as Medicaid for the poor.

The second is the interest payment on the national debt, which accounts for about 8%.

This expenditure is simply the interest on the U.S. debt. In fiscal year 2019, the interest payment on the national debt was 363 billion. Dollar.

Finally, there is discretionary spending, which accounts for about 30%.

In fiscal year 2019, the U.S. government’s discretionary spending was US$1.305 trillion, which was used to pay for all other government needs. Disposable expenditures include emergency project funds (Emergency Fund), which in fiscal year 2019 are US$111.4 billion, military expenditures of US$886 billion, and US Department of Health and Human Services budget expenditures of US$69.5 billion.

Throttling? The United States is probably just trying to cut down funds for emergency projects. Who else would dare to move? If all is cut, more than 100 billion US dollars will not be spent. Will this save money? Or should we let the more than 28 million government employees in the United States just work without receiving a salary?

Therefore, no matter what Biden does, he can only borrow debt. In fact, Biden is also relatively powerful. He can actually make the U.S. military withdraw from Afghanistan. Whether it is because of checks and balances on China or for other reasons, he can make the super-influential military-industrial complex in the U.S. political arena not object.

However, when he was preparing to change the US tax policy of robbing the poor and giving to the rich, Biden discovered that he still underestimated the greed of capitalists. Capitalists don't care about the survival of the United States. As long as it doesn't prevent most people from making money, they can do whatever they want.

Some people are still buying U.S. Treasuries now, because the U.S. dollar is still the main settlement currency for world trade, and because most people believe that they will not be the last to take over. Unlucky guy.

In fact, the U.S. debt liability accounts for 130% of GDP, which has already created a miracle. But how long will this miracle last? No one can predict it.

Why can U.S. debt create miracles?

In fact, the United States has fallen into a vicious cycle, that is, it never has enough money to spend, and it can only continue to issue U.S. debt to borrow money, otherwise it will be over immediately. Borrowing money = chronic suicide, not borrowing money = immediate collapse.

The most important thing for the United States to be able to continue this cycle is that it has the following two points: military hegemony and technological hegemony, both of which are indispensable. These two hegemonies determine the basis of U.S. debt, which in turn promotes hegemony.

Let’s talk about the U.S. dollar and U.S. military hegemony first:

The war in Afghanistan has lasted 19 years since 2001. The U.S. military has killed about 6,700 people and injured 55,000 people. The total cost As high as 1.7 trillion U.S. dollars;

In the Iraq War, according to the figures disclosed by the U.S. Department of Defense, the United States invested more than 700 billion U.S. dollars in military expenditures and 50 billion U.S. dollars in reconstruction costs. More than 4,000 U.S. troops were killed and injured in the war. There are more than 70,000 US troops;

The two wars launched by George W. Bush in the early 21st century severely damaged the vitality of the United States. Obama, Trump, and Biden are all cleaning up the mess. In 2021, the US military will shrink across the board and try to Avoid garrisoning large numbers of troops in combat zones.

Let’s talk about the war in Syria. Given the size of Syria, it would have been a piece of cake for the United States to clean it up in the early years. Therefore, Turkey, the former little brother, now dares to clamor against the United States, because it knows that the United States no longer dares to launch a larger-scale war. One more thing to say here is that the United States is now struggling to even carry out an assassination, as Erdogan can testify.

So the United States is now spending a small amount of money to do big things, such as allowing Ukraine to directly confront Russia. The United States only provides Ukraine with US$150 million in free military assistance and US$150 million in paid military assistance. If this continues, the United States will not have the money to spread values, support anti-government forces, and engage in color revolutions. Once this happens, the United States will be able to maintain its position as a regional power, let alone a superpower.

Let’s talk about the technological hegemony of the United States:

The technological hegemony of the United States is mainly manifested in the following aspects: First, it uses core technologies to suppress potential competitors. , obtain high profits. The second is to interfere with normal market competition on the grounds of national security, protect core technologies and markets, and undermine fair market order and investment. The third is to use tariffs and other means to restrict the export of high-tech products from other countries to the United States and suppress the development of high-tech industries in other countries.

The technological hegemony of the United States requires the protection of military hegemony. Only in this way can the United States exercise long-arm jurisdiction over other countries through the Foreign Anti-Corruption Act and use CIA personnel and SWIFT dollar settlements all over the world. The system and the Prism plan monitor the world and suppress global companies.

The most powerful provision of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act: Any foreign person or employee of a foreign company who communicates through the U.S. mail system or makes a corrupt payment using an international business tool affiliated with the United States , whether it is a phone call, email or bank transfer, as long as there is contact with the United States, the United States has jurisdiction.

For example, in the case of Huawei Ms. Meng Wanzhou’s arrest, the Canadian police gave the reason for arresting Meng Wanzhou: Huawei was suspected of violating U.S. trade sanctions against Iran. It is difficult for normal people to understand that American law has such a high status in Canada.

In fact, American law also has a very high status in Europe, Japan and South Korea. This is why when Trump tore up the Iran nuclear agreement, the EU issued an incentive bill, but EU companies still dared not continue to do business with Iran. Business, the consequences are too serious: In May 2013, the United States accused Total of bribing Iranian officials to win Iranian oil and gas contracts and fined Total $398 million. European banking giant BNP Paribas is considered by the United States to have violated U.S. sanctions on countries such as Sudan and Iran, and will be fined a whopping $10 billion.

Europe actually no longer has any sense of resistance. There are no large-scale Internet companies in Europe so far. This field is almost monopolized by China and the United States. Don’t Britain, France and Germany have R&D capabilities and innovation capabilities? No, this is just a matter of US control behind the scenes.

But what will happen if the United States loses its money and military hegemony? Now Europe, Japan and South Korea can listen to the United States. That is because the United States has a strong fist and has enough troops stationed in these countries.

Once there is no money, the military hegemony of the United States will no longer exist. Can Japan, South Korea and Europe still be so honest? Who wants to have a father on their head?

The technological hegemony of the United States is to make money for its military hegemony, and China is now dismantling the foundation of American technology. The United States must be anxious, so it will be cruel to companies like Huawei.

The possible critical point of the collapse of the US dollar

I believe that the US dollar debt ratio of 250 is that critical point. When this critical point arrives, the United States will not even be able to repay interest. The current annual interest expenditure is 600 billion US dollars. How much will the annual interest cost then?

Once the United States cannot even pay back the interest, can the U.S. debt still be sold? If it cannot be sold, there will be no money. Without money, can the U.S. military, technology, and public opinion hegemony be maintained?

In July 2020, the weekend edition of the New York Times published a very bizarre commentary article, saying that the raging COVID-19 epidemic in the United States and the West has created a 10-year crisis for China. There is a period of opportunity, but as long as the United States can maintain containment of China in these 10 years, China's overall rise will be "permanently delayed."

In 10 years, if Biden is successfully re-elected, the end of his two terms will be exactly the last year. If Biden continues this way, the U.S. dollar will reach a critical point in less than ten years.

China’s best strategy is to “delay.” As long as it develops with peace of mind for another 10 years, the United States will be powerless.

This is the national destiny of the United States in the next 10 years. No one can change it. The most Biden can do is delay it. That is why Biden said: "China will not be allowed to surpass the United States in his lifetime."