Steam Observation No.63

Recently? Wei Xiaoli lost 25.5 billion yuan a year, which caused widespread concern and discussion in the industry. And listen to the steam mirror image from the media Federation. What's the analysis?

"Car club"? Luo Yu (rotating chairman of Automotive Image Media Federation 2023):

There is a high probability that there is no "Wei Xiaoli" in the rivers and lakes.

Judging from the latest financial performance in 2022, Wei Xiaoli, the three new head forces in China, has a hard book to read.

While the sales scale and total income are expanding, they also have to face the expansion of losses caused by huge R&D expenses.

In 2022, the annual net losses of Weilai and Tucki reached 654.38+0.44 billion yuan and 965.438+0.4 billion yuan respectively, and the ideal net loss that is best at controlling costs is 2.03 billion yuan. The total loss of the three car companies in 2022 was as high as 25.5 billion yuan, which was nearly 1.8 times higher than that of 202 1.

That's right: the more you sell, the more you lose.

However, the temporary defeat is also understandable, indicating that the top three launched a more intense "arms race" for the track.

As far as the differentiation trend is concerned, Li is closest to the profit dividing line, which is very intuitive from the gross profit margin index that can best measure profitability. The ideal gross profit margin in 2022 is 19. 1%. Weilai is 13.7%, and Tucki is 9.4%.

Another important indicator for the future is the cost of research and development. In 2022, Weilaihao invested 65.438+0.084 billion yuan, while Ideality and Tucki invested 6.8 billion yuan and 5.2 billion yuan respectively.

At present, the research and development effect is not ideal. Because these three companies are a little obsessed with dolls, product innovation is not as good as krypton.

Chetoujun thinks that it is a bit inappropriate to mention "Wei Xiaoli" in the future.

Because Tucki has obviously fallen behind, not only its sales volume is not as good as that of rising stars such as Nezha Zero Run, but also its product innovation and quality technology are not as good as those of powerful players such as Kryptonite, Zhiji and Fan Fei.

Judging from the comprehensive strength, the top three new forces in the future will definitely be able to get involved. Farewell, Tucki.

"Uncle Zhong drives on the road"? Xu Zhong:

The loss is a loss, but the fragrance is still fragrant!

Although Wei Xiaoli loses 25.5 billion yuan a year, trams are still the market's favorite. The development trend between traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles is the best proof.

Tesla set off a wave of price cuts for new energy vehicles, and BYD blew the horn of "the same price of oil and electricity". Although the subsidies for new energy vehicles have declined in an all-round way, the advantages of low vehicle cost, many license plates and high driving sense will continue to strengthen the substitution of new energy vehicles for traditional fuel vehicles and become a strong growth point in the market.

The immediate loss does not mean that the future will collapse, or even a causal cycle. The more losses, the greater the future return.

Different from the traditional car companies that have been in the market for decades, the new forces' annual investment in R&D, production, sales and channels is continuous and large-scale. "Burning money" is a routine operation, which is one of the reasons for the obvious loss. The loss is not terrible, but terrible is not worth it.

In 2022, Weilai added 528 new power stations nationwide, and the platform iteration entered the NT2.0 era, realizing the comprehensive replacement of "775" and "866"; Ideally, three new cars L9, L8 and L7 will be released in 2022, and two of them will realize the alternate delivery of new and old products; Tucki launched G9 in 2022, combing and optimizing a series of organizational structures, which is intangible capital.

With the continuous decline of the price of battery raw materials, Weilai, which advocates the ultimate service and accurate product positioning, and Tucki, which is full of intelligence, will continue to bring consumers unexpected new experiences of electric vehicles.

"Zhong Shi Auto"? Zhang Shaojie:

Wei Xiaoli lost 25.5 billion yuan a year, but the steamed bread of the tram is still delicious.

A few days ago, Ideality, Weilai and Tucki released their 2022 annual financial reports one after another, revealing an amazing message. In 2022, the three companies suffered losses of 25.5 billion yuan, of which the losses of Weilai and Tucki both reached record highs. There are more and more products and more expensive prices, but it is getting harder and harder to make money and the losses are getting bigger and bigger, which really confuses many spectators.

In fact, it is not difficult to understand when you think about it. In 2022, except for SAIC-GM-Wuling, which competes with new forces, almost all car companies are sprinting to the high end and launching new models with more expensive prices. "Wei Xiaoli" is no exception, which also increases their income scale and bicycle sales income. However, the increase in income does not mean that you can make money. Judging from the gross profit margin that can best measure profitability, the "micro-plum" will decline in 2022. The gross profit margin of Weilai Automobile decreased from 20. 1% in 202 1 year to13.7% in 2022; The ideal dropped from 20.6% to19.1%; Tucki decreased from 1 1.5% to 9.4%. Cars are sold more, but the profit margin is smaller. There are many reasons for the decline in gross profit, but in general, it is two major factors: the rising cost of batteries and the replacement of new and old models.

Personally, I think that in addition to the increase in marketing and management costs, the substantial increase in R&D investment is also an important factor. For Wei Xiaoli, increasing investment in R&D is an investment in the future. However, it remains to be seen how much value the investment in R&D can ultimately generate. I'm not sure whether there will be blind, unnecessary and value-creating R&D, but we definitely need to be vigilant.

As for the topic of whether the steamed bread of the tram is fragrant or not, the point I want to express is that it is still full of fragrance. From a big perspective, the development trend of new energy is irreversible, and the industrial chain of new energy vehicles in China has been very competitive internationally. In the medium and long term, the profit rate of high-quality companies in the industrial chain is expected to remain stable. For example, you are a player who doesn't talk much like BYD.

"Lots of cars"? Wang Zhiliang:

Still "sweet" after "bitterness"

Tesla took the lead in price reduction, and the tram market was hit hard, so it was impossible to have both profits and sales. It is also inevitable that the new power represented by Wei Xiaoli will continue to lose money.

Under the wave of price reduction and quantity guarantee, electric vehicles are also forced to participate. Of course, after several years of rapid development, the supply chain of electric vehicles has gradually matured, such as the maturity of manufacturing technology and the reduction of manufacturing costs; In addition, the level of battery research and development is improved, and the cost of main modules of electric vehicles is reduced; Moreover, the emergence of new energy fields, such as hydrogen energy, has also brought some pressure to trams.

The current tram market environment is very embarrassing for Wei Xiaoli, who has a "wolf" in front and a "tiger" behind him.

On the other hand, higher and higher R&D costs determine the market price of electric vehicles. R&D investment mainly exists in the fields of batteries and chips. , including personnel and testing expenses, which determines the increase of R&D. ..

At the same time, due to the congestion of the track and the reduction of the stock market, it is normal for trams to reduce prices if they want to compete for market share. For example, the recent zero-run C 1 1 is lower than the expected market price, and its impact will also have an impact on the tram market.

Although the income of some new forces has increased, the losses are further expanding, and there is still a long way to go to make ends meet. Therefore, whoever can endure suffering will have the last laugh.

Duo Lijun believes that the current market competition is not only the competition between new energy and fuel vehicles, but also the competition of new energy is becoming more and more fierce. For example, cars in the range of 200,000 yuan and medium and large SUVs in the range of 300,000 yuan. Due to the continuous iteration of new energy vehicle technology and the improvement of charging and replacing infrastructure, trams will be cheaper and more convenient to use in the next few years, so trams are still sought after by the market.

After the storm, car companies have entered a new growth stage, accelerated the expansion of diversified new energy products, and established clear product planning in order to create differentiated brand competitiveness.

To sum up, for electric vehicle enterprises, sales must first reach a certain scale, and reducing costs through scale and quantity can shorten the time to achieve profitability. In 2023, there are more and more kinds of trams, and with the full efforts of traditional car companies, it is not impossible to preempt, and a new pattern is expected to emerge.

Ghostbusters? Wang Kuijun:

There is still a long way to go, Xiu Yuan, and the new forces still have a long way to lose money.

Different from the traditional fuel vehicle enterprises, the new forces such as "Wei Xiaoli" started from scratch, and the huge investment in various factories, marketing and research and development of new models in the early stage will be the main reason for the huge losses. The transformation of traditional fuel vehicle enterprises to new energy tracks and the sales of traditional models can greatly share the cost of bicycles. Moreover, traditional car companies with scale effect will naturally be more stable if they walk on two legs, and even many accessories can be used in traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles. In this way, the cost of bicycles will be greatly controlled, and even if they are not sold well, the fuel car market will contribute to sales and profits. For example, a few years before and after 20 18, BYD Auto, which had no difference in scenery, once completely transformed the new energy market by giving up its fuel vehicles, resulting in huge losses, and finally had to resume the iterative update of fuel vehicles. It seems to be a burden, but it is actually a ballast stone for car companies. The reason why the new car-making forces, which suffer huge losses every year, do not have the previous traditional models as the basis and directly do new energy is not good for cost sharing, and of course there is a lot less burden. It can only be said that there are advantages and disadvantages, but once the annual sales volume of a brand of "Wei Xiaoli" exceeds 500,000, it is only a matter of time before it turns losses into profits. It's just a matter of one or two explosive products, but the steps should not be too big, otherwise it will be easy to pull eggs.

"W Power" Yan Yan:

In the dispute of quantity, we can't talk about heroes by profit and loss.

At the beginning of the year, in order to revitalize the local economy, but also for the main engine factory and its dealers to go to stock, "Second Automobile" located in Hubei took the lead in firing the first shot of price reduction. Many brands of Dongfeng Department, including Dongfeng Citroen, Dongfeng Peugeot, Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Nissan, Dongfeng Shen Feng, etc., have greatly reduced their prices, and consumers with Hubei hukou can also get high car subsidies from the local government. As a result, a stone stirred up a thousand waves, and then Changchun FAW began to follow up, Chongqing Changan followed up, and more and more automobile brands such as Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing followed up. Some insiders exclaimed that this year's auto market is really crazy. Is the price reduction promotion at no cost to quench thirst or survive with broken arms? Looking at the busy 4S shops of major automobile brands, people seem to be in a trance. Is it similar to the blowout of the automobile market more than ten years ago? Brother Ghost doesn't think so. Most car companies are following suit to cut prices, and there are few discounts similar to Dongfeng Citroen C6, which are close to 60% discount. Some insiders said that if the big price cut really eased the inventory backlog of manufacturers, but once the price dropped, there was no real sales increase, what should I do? This is the most terrible question. Indeed, with the impact of the epidemic and the rapid increase in oil prices in recent years, the oil price that once exceeded 10 yuan has completely changed the direction of Chinese consumers' car selection. Pure electric and hybrid vehicles, which were previously unacceptable and expensive, have been quickly accepted by consumers with the continuous decline in prices. More and more consumers have begun to ask about hybrid vehicles of independent brands such as BYD, Geely and Great Wall. Of course, more and more consumers are beginning to take the initiative to understand the new car-making forces such as Tesla, Weilai, Ideality and Tucki New Car, which directly lead to the direct trampling on the prices of traditional car companies. Recently, this wave of price cuts has intensified, and more and more brands have left the market to participate in "grabbing funds", which will definitely lead to the sales of many automobile brands not increasing but decreasing. The price reduction promotion like drinking poison to quench thirst will become the last straw to overwhelm some brands, and soon more automobile brands will be merged or even disappear. 2023 will be a big year for many car brands to decide life and death!

Hero, get in the car? Ren Hui:

In the long run, trams will remain the only sales growth point in the future automobile market.

According to the latest data released by China Automobile Association, in February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 552,000 and 525,000 respectively, up by 48.8% and 55.9% respectively, and the market share also increased to 26.6%. On the other hand, although the recent price war has made its sales performance rebound, it is still in a state of year-on-year decline. In addition, many parts of the world decided to ban the sale of tanker trucks from the beginning of the year, which also confirmed that trams will become the only sales growth point in the automobile market in the next few years.

Of course, the bright performance of trams in the market does not prove that China's new energy automobile industry is thriving. After all, most of them are still in a state of long-term losses, whether it is an old brand like Wei Xiaoli or some tram brands that have just emerged in the past two years. I believe everyone knows that it is only a matter of time before car companies can get stable and sustained financial support for a long time. Therefore, it can only be said that although the tram is very fragrant, it will eventually make consumers feel "fragrant" and pay for it. This is the real "fragrance"!

Nice car? Li Yunkai (rotating Secretary General of Automotive Media Federation 2023):

Wei Xiaoli's loss is expanding day by day, but its growth can not be ignored.

Weilaihe's ideal brand positioning is very clear and has a considerable fan base. Although Tucki has entered the adjustment period, its technical accumulation in intelligent driving assistance should not be underestimated. If product development and marketing strategies are properly adjusted, Tucki's later performance may be stronger.

In the long run, the development prospect of new energy vehicles is still very bright. Although there are still many challenges, with the support of policies, technological innovation, market expansion and globalization, new energy vehicles in China can be expected. Make important contributions.

"Three drivers"? Liu Zhixiang:

Huge losses are not terrible, but there is no solution.

The loss of Tucki and Weilai is not a big deal for investors, but for the products themselves, the most worrying problem is the decline of competitiveness, and they have no good way to do it.

Wei Xiaoli, Tucki was the first to be left behind. P7, P7i and G9 failed to meet expectations, and the market lost interest in Tucki products. If anything, Tucki people are most interested in its autonomous driving technology. But the reality is cruel. After a period of involution, the differences between autonomous driving technologies are narrowing. For consumers of new energy vehicles, this technology is not the top priority. Then Tucki's position suddenly became blurred. The decline in sales volume is one of the main manifestations of the decline in the competitiveness of its products.

Weilai's ET7 and ET5 didn't reach the expected sales at all. The uncertainty brought by new products has also shaken the market, and ET7 users have been scared away by the constant failures. Although Weilai's service is in place, solving product problems can't be compensated by after-sales service, but it still needs to be solved fundamentally. However, when we look back at Weilai, apart from the service, what are the more attractive technical highlights?

For texture, endurance and playability, stacking can be realized. However, there is no core technology that can determine the product cost, and the premium ability is limited, and the technical bottleneck is prominent. This is the status quo.

For investors, they may not necessarily see Weilai Tucki making a profit, but they can withdraw in an orderly way through financial means. If the money of investors or shareholders is burned out and there is no positive cash flow, Tesla's price reduction again will kill everyone. Faced with such pressure, they need to come up with a solution to the problem, but I don't think I have seen it yet.

"Aki looks after cars"? Ling Yugui:

If we don't increase the sales scale, where is Weixiaoli Road?

The new power "Weilai Xiaoli" published the financial statement for 2022, which was ideal, but each car also lost 1.5 million yuan, Tucki lost about 75,700 yuan, Weilai was the most unreliable, and the competition loss exceeded 654.38+10,000 yuan. Under such a loss, their sales in 2022 only remained between120,000-130,000 vehicles. I want to ask, if the output increases, will it lose more? What is even more frightening is that with the price reduction of Tesla this year, the profit of the new forces represented by Wei Xiaoli is lower, and it has entered an embarrassing situation that the price reduction is more loss and the sales volume is lower without price reduction.

If Tesla cuts the price again, it will undoubtedly make Wei Xiaoli enter a difficult moment of life and death. What is more terrible than losing money and reducing prices is that they don't increase sales when they launch new cars. One car sells about 10 thousand cars a month, two cars also sell about 10 thousand cars, and three cars still sell about 10 thousand cars. I wonder if there will be more and more new cars in the future. Is sales still standing still and entering an infinite loop?

And with the cancellation of preferential policies for new energy vehicles in various places, it is even planned to start collecting toll concessions and cancel the green card, which is undoubtedly a disaster for new energy vehicles. If so, the future of Wei Xiaoli, who can't give the password of sales growth and profit, is quite slim in the future automobile market.

Brother Agui can only ask weakly: Where is Weixiaoli Road?

Ps: The above rankings are in no particular order.

This article comes from Che Yi, the author, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author for any form of reprint. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.