Now it may be a dead end for the poor to buy a house.

I read an article recently, and the author said that the poorer I am, the more I want to buy a house.

The reason is that the poor people's ability to resist risks is relatively low, and they have to rely on relatively safe ways to buy a house to leave their way back.

It is also said that it is generally the rich cloud and Buffett who advise the poor not to buy a house, because the rich have more channels to get rich, while the poor can only rely on buying a house to preserve and increase their value.

I must say that this idea is not wrong when the economy is stable, because since 2003, the real estate in Beijing and Shanghai has increased by an average of 20% every year. /kloc-before 0/5, I even suggested that you borrow money to get on the bus.

But now, all the logic has changed.

Even if you just need a house, I don't recommend low-and middle-income friends to buy a house now.

I wrote to a friend two years ago, that is, during the epidemic, I bought a set of secondhand goods in Beijing, with a total price of 3.58 million, a down payment of 65.438+0.4 million, and a monthly payment of 1 10,000.

Under the epidemic, her work was greatly affected, and only 2000 yuan was left for living expenses after paying off the mortgage every month.

And because of this house, her parents have been hollowed out, and she can only live on credit cards, and she is very anxious every day.

Buying a house has become a petty bourgeoisie, but life is more difficult, and my hair falls out every day.

This is actually the normal state of many people. I always feel that the house is the most stable asset and may appreciate. Mortgage is far more cost-effective than rent, and you can buy it with your eyes closed.

But buying a house will empty your savings and cut off your cash flow. If your income decreases a little, the pressure will suddenly increase.

What's more, it's not 17 years ago, let alone second-and third-tier cities, and even the house prices in first-tier cities haven't risen much, so buying a house with a high probability can't improve your fault tolerance rate, but it may help you.

It is equivalent to 30 years of debt when you are at the highest risk.

The so-called running water is the first, and the struggle is endless. Now that you have a mortgage, it is equivalent to breaking your running water.

Today I will share why low-and middle-income friends don't buy a house now.

1) Everyone's situation is different. Buying a suite is splashing water. I suggest you close this article.

But if you need to spend all your savings to buy a suite, the monthly payment may exceed 60% of your monthly income. I suggest you read this article.

2) In the case of increasing economic risks, we must maintain sufficient cash flow instead of thinking about buying a house.

Because once you lose your job, stop paying and reduce your salary, you still have to pay back the loan, and you will feel unprecedented pressure.

Believe me, this situation is not in the majority, but it is by no means rare.

When the economic situation is bad, it is best to ensure your cash flow first, especially those who are at risk of unemployment, and try not to hand over their savings. People who have jobs will try to save money, and if they can reduce their consumption, they will reduce their consumption.

3) The real estate market has never had a fault-tolerant mechanism for ordinary investors.

It doesn't mean that buying a house can rest easy and improve the ability to resist risks. It is common sense that heavy assets have never been able to resist risks.

Once the price of heavy assets goes down, it is possible to lose everything.

For the poor, the real estate market has never had a fault-tolerant mechanism.

The real estate market used to look the most suitable for the poor, not because it had a fault-tolerant mechanism, but because the market was on the rise. Once it starts sideways or falling, those who are most hurt must be those who empty their savings.

Yanjiao, Hebei Province, for example, has always been a major town for migrant workers to buy houses in Beijing. Because it was widely rumored that the Beijing municipal government was going to move to Yanjiao and build a subway in Beijing, many people took over at a high price.

But the question is, why did Beijing move the municipal government to Hebei?

As a result, the average house price in Yanjiao dropped from 35,000 to 1.8 million, and the wealth that most ordinary families struggled for a lifetime was gone.

These houses were sold at a reduced price, and no one took over, so they could only repay the mortgage at the original price. This process of cutting meat may last for more than 20 years.

Even if someone can sell the house for a big price, they may not be able to build a mortgage.

Many people have the illusion that house prices will keep rising, but they will not fall anyway, at least not plummet, so they must be high-quality assets, which can improve the fault tolerance rate of the poor.

However, the starting point of this logic is problematic. House prices will not keep rising, nor will they keep falling.

In particular, no matter whether the house price is high or low, it is still necessary to repay the loan at the original price, so be cautious.

4) If you don't just need it, you can buy a house with your eyes closed. Buying a house is never just needed, but having a house is just needed.

Many people say that you can buy a house with your eyes closed if you just need it.

Actually, that's not the case at all. Buying a house as a heavy asset investment may empty your six wallets. If the house falls by 30% in the next five to ten years, can you bear it when you want to replace it?

Buying a house is never just needed, but having a house is just needed. In this case, renting is far more cost-effective and practical than buying.

5) At this time, we should still insist that cash is king, and don't borrow money, invest or buy a house unless we have to.

A few days ago, I read an article written by an animal owner, saying that many people in Zhengzhou defaulted on their mortgages, more than 30 thousand suites became legal auction houses, and the overdue rate of credit cards and the non-performing rate of mortgages increased.

This means that many people have not paid their debts.

Don't think that individual cases have nothing to do with you. This is actually a very bad signal.

Many people cry for the sharp drop in house prices all day, thinking that the real estate speculators must be injured, but in fact, the real estate speculators are either well-funded or have surplus funds, and most of them have left a safe space.

The first victim of falling house prices must be ordinary people with houses, because that means the depreciation of all your assets.

6) Most houses have lost their investment value.

Many people are keen on buying a house, because it can fight inflation and even preserve and increase the value.

But in most hot cities, the increase is not very big, let alone ordinary 2345-line cities and small counties.

My friend @ Lou Jing Observer said:

At least 80% of the second-hand houses in the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing have not returned to the high point of 17, and most of them still have a price difference of nearly 10%. From the lowest point to the present, it has rebounded in four years 15~20%.

Of course, there are still many lots and communities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, but most of them are not as big as before.

In the third, fourth and fifth tier cities, especially where the net outflow of population and the policy of strengthening the province are introduced, houses are even less valuable for investment.

7) The sense of security is not brought by the house, but by cash.

Many people will think that having a suite of their own is a sense of security, but in fact, this so-called sense of security is illusory and can't really bring you a sense of security.

As a big asset investment, the core of buying a house must be an investment behavior, not the pursuit of a feeling.

As a million-dollar asset, a house may be the life savings of many people. Simply for safety, it is obviously unreasonable not to look at liquidity, value trend and income expectation.

Of course, this idea may be difficult for most people to accept.

Don't always think that the house is the best asset of the poor, and it may be right at other times, but when the economy is under pressure, especially when the epidemic brings a lot of uncertainty, it is the best strategy to wait and see with money.

The logic of the times that house prices will always rise and houses will never lose money may change now.

Always leave enough cash flow for yourself, and the sense of security is brought by cash, not the house.

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