How is "Ordos City", known as Little Hong Kong, doing now?

Having been in Inner Mongolia for a few years, I went to Ordos because of construction. I went there twice and felt that the first infrastructure was very good. The bus stations, schools, stadiums, and parks are all very well constructed, not inferior to any big city. The second person is too few. I believe that parking spaces are tight, because almost every household has a car, so traffic jams are unlikely. We were constructing in Ordos and stayed in Yijinhuoluo, a very good hotel for 81 nights. We had to drive to the site and came back at three in the afternoon. There was no one on the street. Only the traffic lights on the main roads are open. We also made a special trip to Kangbashi, but there was really no one there. There are many tall buildings, and any building with three lights on at night is considered popular. There are still a lot of people in Yijinhuoluo. I don’t know the name of the place where the traffic light is, but it is near the iconic six buildings. I went there two or three years ago, but I don’t know if there are too many people now.

As a native of Ordos, let me tell you my feelings! Ordos is an energy city that relies on coal resources to rise strongly. Ordos covers an area of ??86,752 square kilometers. It is said to be the city with the largest coal reserves in my country. According to the current mining rate, it can still be mined for hundreds of years.

In the past few years, coal prices have skyrocketed, housing prices in Ordos have risen rapidly, various real estate projects have sprung up, and migrant workers from all over the country have flocked to Ordos. For a time, Ordos has experienced unprecedented prosperity. To build a house, you need to acquire land. Ordos is already sparsely populated. Which of the native aborigines doesn't have a few acres of land? A tax of several million is considered a small amount. It can be imagined how rich the people of Ordos were at that time. Many people were not used to the sudden wealth, so they bought various luxury cars (you did not need to buy a house, and there was no need to buy a house). (every house has several houses), loan sharking... This is where the title of Little Hong Kong comes from, and it can be said that it is in the limelight for a while. But as the saying goes, money never lasts a hundred days. Not long after, the private lending crisis broke out, and the poor people of Ordos lost their money, so they gradually entered a period of silence.

After talking about the history of Ordos, let’s talk about Ordos in my eyes. When talking about Ordos, we are actually mainly talking about Dongsheng District, because Dongsheng District was the seat of the former municipal government and has the largest population and is the most representative.

The advantages of Ordos are good public security and good environment. This is recognized. As early as more than ten years ago, my classmate went to Tianjin to study and said that Ordos is much cleaner than big cities like Beijing and Tianjin. It is cooler in summer. There is a little less snow in winter.

After talking about the advantages, there are naturally disadvantages. Due to the financial abundance in previous years and the city leaders did not see the shortcomings of their large land and sparse population, they made the stalls extra large, which directly led to the Kangbashi ghost town. Unfinished buildings can be seen everywhere in Dongsheng District. We all know that people are the basis of all economies. Without people, everything is empty talk. However, the Ordos Municipal Government focuses on the theme of a livable city, so Tiexi District and Kangbashi District There are basically no business districts in the district, and people are still accustomed to going to the old city for consumption and entertainment. As for Kangbashi District, where my classmates live, most people go back to Dongsheng to buy things. What is the point of building such a new district? I also asked the students who go to college in Kangbashi District. They said that there is nothing in front of their school and they are not allowed to leave the school. Then I want to ask the beloved leaders of Ordos City, why did you build this school? Do you spend hundreds of millions just to send your children to school closer to home? Those are thousands of college students. Even if each person spends ten yuan a day, they can still contribute a lot to GDP, right?

In recent years, the government has focused on tourism. To be honest, the tourism resources in Ordos are very limited. In my opinion, they are all sightseeing tours. Tourist participation is limited, and the prices are extremely expensive, although tourists don’t say so. , but what I must be thinking about is that I will never come again!

With the implementation of the new national housing reform policy and the implementation of the local government’s rule not to approve new commercial housing within five years, the main urban areas of Ordos, A Town, Kangbashi, Dongsheng, Shagedu, and Xuejiawan, House prices are rising steadily. Taking Dongsheng, Azhen, and Xuejiawan as examples, the average price of new homes has increased from 2,800 yuan/square meter to 4,900 yuan/square meter. Kangbashi is a special case, and the average price of new homes has reached 9,500 yuan/square meter. , unlike cities that are hot spots for real estate speculation, Ordos City has experienced a roller coaster economy, the people are calm-minded, the buyers are mainly those who just need to buy houses, and the transaction volume is stable.

With the recovery of the coal economy after the end of 2015, the economy has recovered, the employment rate and income have increased significantly, and people's purchasing power has increased. The CPI index ranks among the top in third-tier and above cities in the country. To sum it up as a joke, a skinny camel is bigger than a horse. After experiencing a 10-year golden period of the coal economy, Ordos City has experienced a downturn of nearly 4 years. However, the abundant coal and natural gas resources and perfect infrastructure are destined to allow Ordos to continue its glory. According to the 2017 National Economic Indicators Statistics , Ordos’ per capita GDP continues to rank first in the country (excluding Hong Kong and Macao). In 2018, the Ordos Municipal Government no longer blindly pursues GDP performance, but focuses on pragmatic work such as debt repayment, environmental governance, and shanty town reconstruction, making every effort to squeeze out GDP and give everyone a real Ordos. Welcome to Ordos.

First of all, let’s talk about the economy. The economic aggregate of Ordos is still firmly the first in Inner Mongolia. Although it has experienced real estate pains and private lending turmoil in the early years, relying on its economic foundation and rich resource attributes, Ordos still ranks first. After surviving the crisis, the economy is slowly getting back on track. In recent years, it has also developed its own characteristic industries, such as the coal chemical industry, which relies on abundant coal and is second to none in the country. A complete coal chemical system has been formed, such as coal to oil, coal to natural gas, coal to olefins, coal to ethylene glycol, etc., among which there are many national large-scale demonstration projects. At the same time, it also drives the development of related upstream and downstream industries. There is also an equipment manufacturing base, BOE Ordos Industrial Park. All have injected strong vitality into the development of Ordos.

Human environment The permanent population of Ordos is relatively single, with the majority of local residents living near Dongsheng. In some local formal occasions and daily communication, the local dialect is mostly used, and Mandarin is rarely used. There are many high-rise buildings in the city, and there are not many pedestrians on the streets. People basically travel by car, and the number of people using public transportation is small. The locals live a comfortable and prosperous life.

Tourism Ordos City is rich in tourism resources, such as the Ordos Prairie, Xiangsha Bay, Genghis Khan Mausoleum, etc. are all good choices. Self-driving tours in Ordos also have a unique flavor.

In the first decade of this century, Ordos, a little-known third-tier city in Inner Mongolia, created a series of economic myths. In the peak year of 2007, the Ordos region's GDP increased by 25.8% year-on-year, and fiscal revenue increased by 38%! This growth rate is crazy even in China, where the average annual growth rate is 10%.

However, Ordos’ economic growth is based on resources. It seems difficult for resource-based cities to escape the fate of "construction-development-shrinking-abandonment". Long-term reliance on resource extraction, neglect of diversified development of industries, technological innovation, and environmental pollution have made cities inevitable towards decline.

The collapse of Ordos’s economic myth began at the end of 2011. Coal volume and price plummeted, the property market fell into a downturn, and Ordos, a coal-rich city, fell into a debt crisis. Obviously, relying solely on coal resources, a single industrial structure, a short industrial chain, and extensive production have led to environmental degradation and backward production capacity. At the same time, they are keen on speculation in real estate. This has made Ordos's development path narrower and narrower, and there are many hidden dangers of bubbles. Finally, overnight In between, the myth is shattered.

In this round of economic cooling, Ordos’ economic growth rate has declined severely. In 2011, it was still growing at 15.1%, but by 2015 it dropped to 7.7%, almost halved. By 2017, it dropped further to 5.8%, less than a quarter of the peak in 2007.

In recent years, Ordos has also been pursuing economic transformation. The first is to extend the coal industry chain. Great progress has been made in coal-to-gas conversion and coal chemical industry. The industrial chain has also been extended and the added value has also been increased. The second is to develop other manufacturing industries, use equipment manufacturing bases as powerful engines, and introduce top 500 companies and high-tech industries. At present, the added value of non-coal industries in Ordos accounts for nearly 50% of the industrial added value, which has been greatly improved. The situation of coal dominance is changing.

Before 2011, Ordos’ economic growth rate ranked first in Inner Mongolia for nine consecutive years. With private lending and real estate collapsing, and the coal market falling to freezing point, the Ordos economy has been hit hard. In the past two years, coal prices have recovered and the monetization of shantytown reforms has deepened, giving Ordos a chance to get out of the trough.

Ordos is a typical energy-based city. In the past two years, coal prices in Ordos have continued to recover. In 2017, the average coal price in Ordos was 307 yuan per ton, an increase of 48%. In 2017, Ordos coal output was 600 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; coal sales were 620 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14%.

Ordos’ GDP in 2017 was 357.981 billion yuan, excluding price factors, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%.

However, Ordos’ financial pressure is still huge. In 2017, Ordos' fiscal revenue was 35.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, and fiscal expenditure was 47.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.1%. At the same time, Ordos' industrial investment resumed its downward trend in 2017. The annual industrial investment was 174.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%. The ability to absorb industries has not yet recovered.

Ordos is a typical city with two districts, the old city Dongsheng and the new district Kangbashi. Kangbashi attracted world attention because of a 2010 Time magazine report titled "Ordos, China: A Modern Ghost Town."

From 2010 to 2015, Kangbashi’s house prices hovered at 4,000 to 5,000 yuan per square meter for a long time. However, as destocking accelerated in the past two years, Kangbashi became the biggest beneficiary.

Ordos’ monetized resettlement ratio reached 94.5% and 100% in 2016 and 2017 respectively, which is second to none in the country’s monetized housing reform process. Through the renovation of sheds, Ordos has achieved remarkable results in destocking. In 2016 and 2017, the area of ??existing commercial housing digested through housing reform in Ordos was 5.898 million and 5.11 million square meters respectively.

Housing renovation has also become the main force driving the recovery of housing prices. At present, the house price in Kangbashi has risen rapidly to 10,000 yuan, more than doubled, approaching the highest level in the history of Kangbashi District. However, the occupancy rate in Kangbashi Community is still low.

Housing prices in the old town of Dongsheng remain unchanged, with an average price of 5,000 to 6,000 per square meter, slightly recovering.

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The latest information is that “ghost towns” are gradually emerging. House prices have returned to the level of 10,000 yuan per square meter.

Around 2010, as the real estate bubble burst, Ordos was called a ghost town, with a lot of vacant new houses without even a soul. It's really scary to think about.

Although the house price is said to hover between 4,000 yuan and 5,000 yuan, there are very few transactions, and I am afraid that no one wants to live in it.

Looking back on the past, in 2006, due to the explosion of funds brought by the coal industry, the real estate industry in Ordos began to soar, rising from 1,500 yuan per square meter to 5,000 to 6,000 yuan per square meter in one or two years. 2010 was the craziest time. In some areas, housing prices reached 20,000 yuan per square meter, with 3 to 4 houses per capita.

Nowadays, things seem to have changed significantly.

The news from June to July 2018 was mostly positive reports.

For example, some media reported that "House prices in the former ghost town of Ordos have soared by leveraging the shantytown reform to monetize", and the Securities Times published an article on July 26, "House prices in Ordos New District have rebounded: How to get rid of the ghost town label", both in Said that housing prices have rapidly exceeded the 10,000 yuan/square meter mark in the past two years, returning to the highest level in history.

"Securities Times" investigation found that the average price of residential communities such as Oriental New Land, Jinxiu Villa, Jinxin Hanlin Garden, and Huaying Xincheng has exceeded 10,000 yuan. Even in the "civil servant community", the house price in this area dropped to 2,000 yuan per square meter when it was the lowest, and has now risen to about 5,000 yuan.

Policy stimulus has enabled the inventory in Ordos to be quickly digested, including policies such as monetized resettlement of sheds, room ticket system, and government buyback. According to official data, the proportion of monetized resettlement in shantytown reforms in Ordos reached 94.5% and 100% respectively in 2016 and 2017. Such a high proportion of monetized resettlement is rare in the country.

Ordos is a typical city with two districts. Kangbashi District is a new district, and all conditions are much better than those in the old district, Dongsheng District. Therefore, from the overall perspective of Ordos, it is difficult to say that the real estate market has returned to health. Unfinished buildings are still everywhere.

The healthy and sustainable development of a city requires sustainable industries to be maintained. The future of Ordos is still worrying.

The rise in housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities driven by shantytown reform may prompt a surge in demand in the short term. However, in the medium to long term, it is still difficult to be optimistic.

Ordos is a typical city that hollows out its body for appearance. According to Ordos’ actual capabilities, no matter what it does, it cannot achieve the “brilliance” of previous years.

However, Ordos has indeed been "brilliant" in the past few years, so "brilliant" that it hurt many people's eyes.

However, such "brilliance" will only leave today's depression. Because Ordos plays by hollowing out the body. Relying on the temporary prosperity brought about by rising energy prices, they began to engage in real estate development and used real estate to create false prosperity, which interacted with the energy boom, draining urban resources and overdrafting the city's future.

Think about it, how long can a city like Ordos, where manufacturing and other industries are not very developed, be able to support itself by relying on energy and real estate? After the sharp decline in energy prices, the foundation supporting Ordos' "glory" disappeared, and real estate quickly collapsed. Without these two major supports, can it still survive? Therefore, for Ordos, it is actually a city with only appearance. After all, there is no manufacturing industry, no good innovation conditions, and no effective industrial investment and service industry investment. What is waiting for Ordos is to start over, do some practical things in a down-to-earth manner, and develop the manufacturing industry. The so-called economic recovery is not a reflection of Ordos' economic recovery, but a new false prosperity brought about by rising coal prices. If Ordos wants to truly get out of its predicament, it can only rely on developing the real economy and using the real economy to make up for the deformed structure left by the development of previous years.

We can be confident about the future of Ordos, but the road ahead is rugged and may be more difficult and difficult than many cities.

Ordos has a glorious past, because Ordos is one of the 18 typical areas in the 30 years of reform and opening up. It is an economically emerging city in Inner Mongolia. It was once well-known throughout China, and housing prices have continued to rise. However, in recent years Ordos has really declined due to resource depletion and other issues.

In terms of housing prices, since 2006, the economy of Ordos has been booming with the financial support from the coal industry. By 2011, housing prices in some areas of Ordos had risen to more than 20,000 yuan. , but now due to various reasons, the house price in Ordos has fallen by 3,000 yuan, and no one is interested. What’s even more frightening is that due to the real estate crisis, many projects in Ordos have been suspended, which is to say that the legendary unfinished buildings.

In terms of economy, although the economy of Ordos has been greatly affected after housing prices were cut in half, a skinny camel is bigger than a horse. If we only look at Inner Mongolia, Ordos is still the economy of Inner Mongolia. The most powerful urban area, data shows that Ordos’ per capita GDP reached 215,500 yuan in 2016, ranking third in the country.

However, Ordos is a city that relies on resources after all. With the upgrading of resources and energy, Ordos’ advantages may gradually disappear in the future. Therefore, the author believes that the focus of Ordos’ future development must be towards tourism. , after all, the tourism resources in Ordos are pretty good.

Foreigners say that Chinese people are poor and have poor infrastructure, but the result is exactly the opposite; outsiders say that Kangbashi is a ghost town with no people, but the result is that Ordos locals have difficulty finding a house, traffic jams every day, and beautiful scenery Very good. Without practice, you have no right to speak. Please see it in person before speaking, otherwise the locals will laugh at you for being uneducated!