Deeply understand the changes in the situation in the Asia-Pacific region and objectively evaluate the diplomatic environment around China.

Judging from the recent situation, for example, from Northeast Asia, the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea to the South China Sea, the situation of China, a place facing the ocean, is very different from the trend we have seen in the past decade, or the trend of being friendly to China. It can be said that at present, China's peripheral diplomacy, except the peripheral diplomacy in the eastern and western regions, gives people the impression that it has taken a sharp turn for the worse, that is, it is very difficult. Where is the difficulty? That is to say, in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, headed by the United States, it seems that we can't contain it, which is a great pressure on China. That is to say, in the past ten years, since the mid-1990s, the relationship between China and Southeast Asia has been very good. At present, economic trade and free trade are booming, but mutual investment used to be invested by Southeast Asian countries in China. Now China has entered Southeast Asia and invested more and more. This situation gives people the impression that the situation was good and the trend was good, but it was reversed. Where does the reversal start?

That is, since Hillary Clinton talked about the South China Sea dispute at the ASEAN Regional Forum in July this year, things have gradually evolved, and now people feel that China is under great pressure and can't breathe in this place. What is the reason? For example, even in the past, there were local disputes in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, including disputes with Vietnam or the Philippines, but never like this. The whole area has appeared, and problems have also appeared at the same time. Is it accidental? It may be accidental, but in fact, judging from the strategies of the United States and East Asia, China's strategy has its inevitability. Its inevitability lies in that in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the United States gradually shifted its focus to East Asia. In fact, it recognizes that China is in East Asia, especially Southeast Asia, and hopes to drive away the influence of the United States. Now they are back, which means that Hillary Clinton also talked about this when she held the ASEAN summit in Thailand last year, and the United States finally came back.

The main criterion is that this year has been reflected, that is to say, she has established the relationship between ASEAN and ASEAN countries. That was at the APEC summit in June last year, and in May 438+February, Obama arrived in Singapore for the first time to hold a summit with ASEAN leaders. This time, it is Friday, the second summit. People feel that they are building a defense line against China, and this route is very clear. In addition, Japanese, Yellow Sea, US-South Korea military exercises and a series of military exercises give people the impression that the United States is engaging in strategic confrontation with China deliberately, step by step and with strategic thinking, and even preventing China from further marching into the ocean area. This strategic goal is of course very clear. And I think on the one hand, some countries in Southeast Asia are also actively cooperating with the United States, Japan is also cooperating with the United States, and South Korea is also cooperating with the United States and Japan. As can be seen from the Diaoyu Islands issue, it is very tough.

On the other hand, before his prime minister visited the United States, that is, before meeting with Obama, he was determined not to let go of the Chinese captain. Actually, it gives me this feeling. He wants to give Obama a gift to show that I am tough on China and fully support the US strategy of containing China in East Asia. This intention is also obvious. So from the overall situation, I think that in recent months, China's diplomacy in the eastern coastal areas is basically on the defensive, or very, very passive.