I spent ten years telling you how to go in the future.

For all the people who enter this market, no one comes with the purpose of losing money. However, 90% of people left with losses, or even broke positions. Is it really that difficult to become a master of futures trading? Is the road to listing really as difficult as the road to Shu, and is it difficult to go to the sky?

The success or failure of futures has nothing to do with one's education, IQ, diligence and principal, but with one's understanding and execution. If you are smart enough, the distance between you and the futures expert is actually a turning distance. If we must describe the true meaning of futures in one sentence, I want to say that futures is the art of drifting with the flow. "Find trends and follow them." Futures are such simple things. There is another sentence that is also very important. Let's talk about it: everything goes in when everything is ready, and leaves when the wind blows. Control your hands and heart, and only trade with high odds.

? Find the trend and follow it. The first step is how to find the trend accurately.

First of all, what is the trend? The fluctuation of price either forms a trend or an interval. This has formed the so-called trend city and consolidation city. In a trendy city, fashion is an irresistible impulse. Don't try to stop it.

People in different realms treat trends differently: novices can't understand trends; Veterans like to predict trends; The master just follows the trend.

From the perspective of time cycle: in the medium and long-term operation, the trend of the weekly line represents the general trend of the medium and long-term line, which is not controlled by the banker, but determined by the fundamentals. If you don't understand the fundamentals of the US dollar index, crude oil and copper, don't do long-term operations. The daily line can look at the short-term trend within a week to a month; If you can understand it, you can become a master overnight. Hour line, fifteen-minute line and five-minute line are compasses for intraday trading. If you focus on day trading, you don't need to look at the fundamentals, you just need to strictly implement your trading system. Of course, the premise is that you have a high probability trading system that can stand the test of time and market, and strike hard when you see the trend.

Of course, we can see a higher level trend for the monthly and seasonal lines, but for ordinary people, this time frame spans too much and has little reference significance for their own operations. The general trend above the monthly line should be the general trend that needs to be considered in the transactions of large funds such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan. Looking at the medium and long-term trend, the weekly line is enough.

All trends are based on a certain time frame. Talking about trends without a specific time frame is like castles in the air. ? The so-called follow suit is the seven words mentioned in chaos theory-want what the market wants. The so-called going against the trend is the eight words mentioned in chaos theory-want what the market doesn't want.

As far as the elements of the trading system I rely on are concerned, the core of technical analysis lies in two aspects:

First, the * * * vibration trend in each time period;

Second: deviation and breakthrough. Understand the * * * vibration, deviation, breakthrough these six words, you will understand the essence of technical analysis.

What suits you is the best. Some people like to speculate that seconds and minutes are the time base; Some people like intraday trading, taking the minute line and the hour line as the time benchmark; Some people like overnight, but they can't get an order for more than a week; Some people are experts in fundamental analysis and trading, no more than three times a year. Everyone has his own clock.

What suits you is the best, and stable profit is king.

There are three treasures in speculative trading: good mentality, good vision and good technology. To become a master of one tenth, there must be at least two of these three treasures. Mentality represents the power to make your heart stable; Vision represents the thinking ability, trend analysis and speculative ability of macroeconomics and basic concepts; Technology represents computing power and the ability to judge the quantity and price of specific varieties in time and space.

It is common to see right and wrong. Large-scale trends see the trend enter the market, and small-scale fluctuations are forced to stop losses. This is a matter of mentality and vision. Everyone can understand the big market and trends, but whether it can be done right is another matter completely. This is human nature. After reaching a certain level, technology is only a tool, and spiritual experience is the direction. Understanding and cultivation are far more important than technology itself.

Futures is a concentrated life, which magnifies the greed and fear of human nature ten times and one hundred times. In this speculative market where most people are doomed to lose money, there is no reliable trading system, and what is more important is the execution of the trading system itself. What we end up trading is not price, but faith.

For each transaction itself, the difference between more and less is not the price, but the belief. The same price, some people are bullish, some people are bearish, and they are always in balance. The key to profit is, what time period do you follow? And whether you are in the same direction as the trend. The root cause of the loss is nothing more than three situations: [1] the same import and export transaction, the trend fluctuations in different time periods are confused. Many times, it is right or wrong. [2] There is a tendency of misjudgment. This is an example of doing something wrong. [3] Habitual naked swimming, without any stop loss trading.

Don't go against the trend, don't predict the market, and don't try to outsmart the market.

After a long talk, let's talk about something technical. I think the time structure of technical analysis can be handled as follows: (1) delimit the fluctuation range with the weekly line; Judging the trading trend through the daily line; Select the entry point and departure point through the hour line and minute line. The above is the overnight time structure. If it is done in a day, the changes are as follows: delimit the fluctuation range with the daily line; 60 minutes combined with 15 minutes to judge the trading trend; Use the 5-minute line to select the entry point and exit point. The basis of the transaction, from the technical analysis, the main reference? [1] average arrangement; [2] trend channel; [3] Deviation and breakthrough; [4] Coordination of quantity and price.

The moving average can talk; Trends always appear clearly within a certain time frame, but we lack of discovery. Deviation and trend breakthrough verification are trading opportunities with high odds. Always enter the market when the volume is abnormally enlarged, but stand on the side of the strong trend.

Trends always exist objectively within a certain time frame. Find and determine the trend direction, from long period to short period. The weekly line can't find the trend, look for the past line. The daily line can't find the trend, look for the hourly line; The hourly line can't find the trend, find the minute line. Trends always exist objectively, but there is a lack of discovery. We can't change the trend, but we can find the trend and adapt to it. As far as technology itself is concerned, it is sometimes better to know clearly that losses are better than to make money in a muddle.

Randomness and emotionality are two fatal factors in trading.

The probability depends on the inertia of the trend. Choose to enter the market when a strong trend inertia is formed, and the odds will increase.

Futures is the art of drift. Going with the flow is a passive choice, and we always stand in the direction of being friends with the trend; Flow-by-flow is an active choice, and we can choose stable varieties and varieties with strong inertia.

One step ahead, two thousand gold. I think predicting the market is something that God can do, and following the market is something that mortals can do.

The simpler the trading system, the better. Simple things are used to the extreme, that is, masters. Do simple things a thousand times, and make it an excellent habit to integrate into yourself. Abandon self, transcend human nature and return to nature.

Technical learning experience;

[1] Among all the technical indicators, pagoda is the least prone to cheating, and RSI is the only indicator that can independently establish a trading system.

[2] Mutual verification of breakthroughs and trends, and mutual vibration in different time periods are magic weapons to improve the odds.

[3] The moving average system is the simplest and most reliable ruler for us to identify the direction.