How to treat the defection of Wagner Group in Russia?

These two days can be described as "the world is changing too fast, don't blame me for not keeping up." When I woke up yesterday, the Russian "Wagner" defected. This morning, "Wagner" turned around and returned to the station. This day's "Wagner" kept many leaders around the world busy. Today, let's talk about Wagner's 24-hour bloodless mutiny.

In the early morning of June 24th, Chief Wagner made a public speech, saying that he would clear Russian moths, cross the Russian-Ukrainian border and go straight to the location of the Russian Southern Command. There was no organized obstruction on the way and the occupation was very smooth. Now all the military supply stations on the southern line of the Russian army are controlled by Wagner. Moscow immediately launched martial law within the city after receiving the news.

Let me talk about the existence of this "Wagner Group".

Wagner Group is a Russian private military service organization, which participates in conflicts and wars all over the world. He is regarded as the white glove of the Russian government, performing some tasks that are inconvenient to disclose. He has strong fighting capacity and advanced equipment, and even has his own plane and helicopter. This organization is very brave in the battle. In the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the limelight even overshadowed the Russian regular army.

Here I would also like to talk about a person-Prigt Ren, who was also the initiator of the mutiny. He is an investor in Wagner Company. His background used to be the owner of a hot dog shop, nicknamed "Putin's chef". He got the nickname because his rise depended entirely on his own restaurant to provide catering services for the Kremlin. Prigogin provided financial and logistical support to Wagner Group through his company and benefited from it.

Let's talk about why Wagner Group defected.

1, gloves are gloves, you can't use gloves as sharp knives, let alone gloves as broadswords.

Now this kind of rebellion seems to be the contradiction between shoigu and Prigt, not a day or two, but fundamentally, this kind of rebellion is inevitable.

After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, Wagner was finally able to fight after several years of actual combat, so he was built into a sharp knife and went to the front of the Russian army. Like Bachmut, who fought the most fiercely in the whole battlefield, Wagner became the main force. This is fundamentally wrong. Is there such a powerful armed force outside the national army? This is a terrible thing.

2. The bombardment of Wagner is the direct fuse to intensify contradictions.

The Russian Ministry of Defence denies this, but those Wagda mercenaries are really dead, so there is something wrong with their own knives, but the war is not over yet, so it is strange that they want to use them. There is no accident in fighting at this time. Now that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is so fierce and tragic, it is foolish to retreat your knife.

Why did Wagner Group quit in less than 24 hours?

Under the mediation of Belarusian President Luska Shenko, the founder of Wagner said that he would stop the attack and let the troops return to their original positions. At the same time, Russia also withdrew the criminal charges against Preeg and pardoned most of the personnel. What is the reason why Wagner went from aggressive to dying in such a short time?

1, the troops are too weak.

Wagner's strength is only 25,000, while the Russian Defence Force is 200,000. Wagner's decisive battle with Russian conventional combat troops in Moscow and other areas is extremely difficult. After all, the strength contrast is quite wide, and various support capabilities are seriously insufficient.

2. There are too many short boards.

According to Wagner, the actual combat troops are basically ground operations, mainly the army. The combat forces of several brigades can play a role in the ground city war, but it is quite difficult to fully confront the Russian army in a large-scale space. The first is the lack of air force, the second is the lack of long-range strike capability, and there are still many shortcomings.

3. The responsibility is too great.

Because according to President Putin's public speech, this will lead to the failure and division of Russia, and this crime is too serious. If Wagner launches a strike like Moscow, it will shake the morale of the Russian troops on the front line of the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield and have a major impact on the operations in Ukraine, and the front line may collapse. In this state, if Russian troops completely withdraw from Ukraine and NATO countries take advantage of it, Crimea, a Ukrainian region, will be completely restored, leading to civil strife in Russia, which may be the biggest sinner in Russian history.

What's the impact of this matter?

1, let Russia really lose face in front of the world.

We said that when they sent troops to Ukraine, many people thought it was a three-day blitzkrieg or a ten-day victory. I didn't expect the blitzkrieg to become a war of attrition. Now that the other side's Nazism or militarization has not achieved results, they have militarized themselves, and their mercenaries and the national defense forces have begun to exchange fire. If it weren't for the cooperation of land and sea gods, a great war would have broken out long ago, just like 19 17.

2. Putin's authority has been challenged.

If there are many reasons for the unfavorable battlefield in Ukraine, Wagner, now known as Putin's chef Pridgeon, launched a rebellion, which will have a great impact on Putin's own prestige. Some experts believe that just from the current situation and the negative impact of Prigt's term of office, if Putin runs for president again in 2024, he may face many problems.

3. Shake the morale of the army.

Although after the accident, Putin asked the local platform to block Prigt's appointment declaration, if the soldiers on the Russian-Ukrainian front knew about it, they would be chilling and the morale of the military and civilians would definitely be greatly shaken.