About 37,000 pigs will be culled by Japanese "rotten intestine plague", will it affect the pig price in China?

The resurgence of Japanese swine fever in neighboring countries has little effect on pig prices in China. As a reference, the data of 500 markets monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs show that in the fourth week of March, the price of pork in China fell for 9 consecutive weeks to 44.09 yuan/kg, down 2.6% from the previous month and 22.5% from the same period last year, with a cumulative drop of 18.7%.

The continuous decline of pork prices in China this year is mainly due to the sufficient supply. According to the monitoring data of granaries around the world, as of March 30th this year, the average profit per pig in China was 160 1.55 yuan. Driven by high breeding profits, China's pig production capacity has obviously recovered and the market supply is sufficient.

By the end of February, the number of fertile sows in China was equivalent to 95% at the end of 20 17, and the number of live pigs in China remained above 400 million. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in February this year, the number of fertile sows in China increased by 1.0%, continuously increasing by 17 months. Year-on-year growth of 34. 1% for 9 consecutive months.

In order to ensure the domestic pork supply, China continues to import pork. From January to February, China imported 700,000 tons of pork, up 26.2% year-on-year. However, in order to ensure food safety in China, the quarantine standards for meat imports are extremely strict. For example, six Australian meat enterprises have been "stopped" from exporting to China, and they have not yet re-obtained admission tickets.

At the same time, China's pork imports are diversified, and Japan is not the main source of China's pork imports. The data shows that in 2020, China's pork imports totaled 4.39 million tons, up108% year-on-year; Imported pork comes from 20 countries including Spain, America, Germany, Brazil, Canada and Denmark, among which Spain, America, Brazil and Germany imported 960,000 tons, the United States imported 700,000 tons, the United States imported 480,000 tons and the United States imported 470,000 tons.

Extended data

Breeding of classical swine fever in Nara, Japan:

According to CCTV financial report, on March 3 1, a pig farm in Nara, Japan, found that many piglets died one after another, and were confirmed to be infected with classical swine fever by testing. This is also the second outbreak of swine fever in pig farms in Nara, Japan since 1962. After the outbreak, the local authorities in Nara banned outsiders and vehicles from entering the pig farm, and immediately decided to cull about 1 100 pigs raised in the pig farm.

The report pointed out that some sick pigs infected this time have been vaccinated with swine fever vaccine, which is also the fifth county-level administrative region in Japan that still has an outbreak after being vaccinated with swine fever vaccine. Therefore, many voices question the poor effect of swine fever vaccine. Subsequently, the Japanese Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries responded that vaccination does not mean that all pigs can be immunized and cannot rely too much on vaccines, resulting in other epidemic prevention measures being ignored.