Will Turkey send troops to Syria to resume the war?

There is another war in the Middle East-this time Turkey and Syria.

13, the United States announced that it would train a "border protection force" with about 30,000 people and Kurdish armed forces as the backbone along the Turkish-Syrian border; 65438+1On October 20th, Turkish President Erdogan announced the launch of the "Olive Branch" campaign against Kurdish armed forces in Aflin region; On the 28th, Turkish President Erdogan once again stated that the Turkish army would eliminate Kurdish armed forces in the entire Turkish-Syrian border area.

This means that Turkey's "Olive Branch Action" may last for a long time. This has also aroused many people's concerns: will Turkey send troops to attack the Kurds this time, will it trigger a new round of melee in the Middle East?

In this regard, Uncle Island's answer is very simple, two words: no.

Russia-Turkey-Syria

According to the official position of Turkey, the current Syrian Kurdish armed forces are essentially the Syrian branch of Turkey's "PKK". Turkey has always regarded it as a big worry, fearing that it will unite with Kurdish separatist forces in Turkey after it sits in northern Syria.

Although Turkey has used fighter planes, armored forces and artillery at present, it seems that the momentum is fierce, but it is not without scruples. The attitudes of the United States and Russia will ultimately directly affect the determination of Turkish President Erdogan.

When launching the "Olive Branch" operation, Erdogan said that he had negotiated with Russia, and Russian military personnel stationed in this area quickly evacuated before the Turkish army attacked; Since we have negotiated with Russia, it means that Turkey's actions will not fundamentally harm the Bashar regime-after all, Syria is a staunch ally of Russia in the Middle East.

Another intriguing thing is that Bashar government forces recently launched a fierce attack on opposition forces in the south of Idlib province, one of the four "conflict relegation zones". According to the Russian and Pakistani sides, their targets are mainly the former "National Front" armed forces under Al Qaeda; However, Turkey made it clear to Russia that please pay attention to Turkey's interests in this region. According to Turkey, the current target of Bashar government forces is not the terrorist armed forces of Al Qaeda, but their own "Freedom Army".

Although these two things don't seem to be directly related, considering the current attitude of Turkey and Russia, things are related.

In short, the result of Russia-Turkey compromise is likely to be: Russia can tolerate Turkey's military action, after all, this is the Kurdish armed control area, and it is located on the Turkish-Syrian border generation; Similarly, Turkey has to accept the control of the Bashar regime over the Idlib region (this region is of strategic significance for the Bashar regime to guard the main roads leading to the Syrian economic capital Aleppo and the capital Damascus).

In the final analysis, Turkey's attack on Kurdish armed forces is also a pleasure for Russia. Earlier, the United States announced the establishment of a "border protection force" with Kurdish armed forces as the backbone, which greatly enhanced the Kurds' right to speak in the future Syrian pattern, which is obviously unwilling to be seen by Russia, which has always dominated the Syrian pattern. The United States and Turkey belong to NATO, and the rift between the United States, which now supports the Kurdish armed forces, and Turkey, which hopes that the Kurdish armed forces will be quickly removed, is also welcomed by Russia.

If the Russian-Turkish compromise is really like this, it means that Erdogan's seemingly "adventurous" action has been recognized by the number one player at the Syrian negotiating table. This avoids the greatest risk of conflict.

United States of America

Next, America's attitude is very important.

As an ally of the other side of the Syrian game, the United States has three goals in Syria at this stage: to weaken the Bashar regime as much as possible and expand its influence in Syria; Prevent organizations such as the "Islamic State" from making a comeback; Obstruct the formation of the "Shia arc" and prepare tools for containing Turkey in the future.

In view of Erdogan's tendency to alienate Germany and NATO on the Syrian issue, the United States has to plan ahead even if it believes that Turkey will not leave NATO in the end. Therefore, the establishment of the Kurdish "border guards" has become a move of killing three birds with one stone.

Of course, the United States has considered that fostering Kurdish armed forces will stimulate Turkey. Last year, Turkey sent troops to Syria for the first time, and the United States quickly deployed US troops stationed in Syria to Kurdish towns near the Turkish army's operation area. The attitude of the United States is clear enough: even if the United States can accept Turkey's pursuit of its own interests in Syria, it will never give up its support for Kurdish armed forces.

The same is true this time. After Turkey sent troops, the United States only euphemistically "urged Turkey to exercise restraint in military operations"; When Turkish officials announced that they might launch an attack on the aforementioned Kurdish town, US President Trump directly warned Turkey "to consider the danger of armed conflict with the US military" in a call with Erdogan on the 24th.

The American abacus speaks for itself. As long as Erdogan doesn't make efforts to "eliminate this kind of food" by Kurdish armed forces, the United States will tolerate him occupying some territories and fostering his own "opposition" or something. But once you cross the line, you can't. Therefore, the United States will not immediately stop Erdogan's actions, but "knock on the door first" and then "see his actions."

The armored forces of the Turkish army were assembled on the border between Turkey and Syria.

Will it be noisy?

As mentioned earlier, Turkey is a member of NATO and the United States is an ally of NATO. Theoretically, the two should have highly consistent strategic interests. It was true during the cold war. However, when the Soviet Union, America's biggest enemy, disappeared, NATO continued to exist. First, European countries can "enjoy the cool under the big tree" and use the super strength of the US military to reduce the burden of defense expenditure. Second, in the case of consistent values, it is obviously better to speak with one voice than to do things separately.

So, why is there such a "crack" between Turkey and the West?

Time transfer is easy.

At that time, NATO accepted Turkey's membership, apparently paying attention to its strategic position, and deliberately letting Turkey block Russia from entering the South and the Middle East. After the Cold War, Turkey's "use value" in front of the West has obviously shrunk. On the contrary, the "clash of civilizations" gradually emerged in the west after "9 1 1". As a country with a completely different background from western civilization, Turkey has been pursuing western values for decades, but its recognition is very poor-just look at how bumpy its road to joining the EU is.

Not only that, Erdogan's strong personal religious color also made the west have strong doubts about his political inclination. A series of events after the attempted coup last summer further deepened the rift between Turkey and the West.

But from a realistic point of view, it is obviously unwise for Turkey to give up the most powerful political and military alliance and the most developed economy in the world, no matter how angry it is with NATO or the European Union. If Turkey wants to improve its marginal position and let the EU realize its "value", it needs to demonstrate its determination to implement the national will in addition to having sufficient economic and military strength. In the past two years, Erdogan's contacts with Russia and his two attacks on the Kurdish armed forces, an American agent, are aimed at demonstrating this determination.

As a veteran of politics, apart from his flexible figure and tough iron fist, Erdogan's grasp of the current situation is no less than his speculation about the intentions of relevant countries. Although he constantly claimed to "hit the border between Syria and Iran in one breath", he also constantly asked the United States to stop supporting the Kurds. The latter, I'm afraid, is its real purpose.

abstract

After analyzing so much, let's briefly talk about the conclusion-

In short, from Turkey's point of view, if we can achieve the established military goals and win another territory with a strategic backrest for our "Freedom Army", we can not only ensure our "interests" in Syria, but also show that Turkey is a "big country" with independent action ability and will. In this way, Turkey's value in front of the United States, Russia, Europe and Arab countries will inevitably rise, and it has also won enough freedom of strategic choice for itself. This is the main consideration of Turkey's move.

Russia and the United States, the two main players in Syria, expressed tolerance for the actions of the Turkish army. Erdogan understands that as long as he does not cross the bottom line between the two countries, there will be no conflict with these two countries. The cost of the conflict is beyond his ability to pay.

What about countries in the Middle East and other parts of the world? In fact, the current chaos in the Middle East has determined the decline of the influence of other countries.

For example, the GCC countries, which were very active in the Syrian civil war before, are now preoccupied (Saudi Arabia, the leader, is deeply mired in the battlefield in Yemen, and it is not clear from the infighting in Qatar); Although the French President and EU diplomatic representatives expressed "concern" about Turkey's actions, there was no substantive content except delaying Turkey's "entry into Europe". Instead, Turkey holds the Syrian refugee card. The most embarrassing thing is NATO. While acknowledging Turkey's right to "self-defense", the Secretary-General urged that "self-defense must be measured", which is almost half comfort and half reminder. Embarrassment is beyond words.

It can be seen that Erdogan's "olive branch" is a "card grab" action after careful political calculation. Theoretically, it has a high probability of success and will not cause new chaos in the Middle East.

But then again, Erdogan's "disaster is not in the face", "but in the wall."

You know, the Second Army of the Turkish Army, which participated in this operation, is an elite force of Turkey. In addition to being stationed in the capital, his main task is to suppress the guerrilla warfare of the Kulapur Party in the southeast, which has always been trusted by Erdogan. So loyal, they build nests, which may not be a problem for a short time, but once the war drags on for a long time, the country will be empty. At that time, PKK and the forces dissatisfied with it in the army may have a chance.

After all, Kurdish armed forces are not easy to pinch. The Aflin area attacked by Turkey thIS time, although the area is not large, can not be underestimated because the Kurds can stand firm in the IS siege. What's more, they were trained by American instructors, and their level must have improved a lot. In other words, even if the Turkish army can finally win, it will not be easy; If the Turkish army loses too much, it will be a serious political blow to Erdogan.

After all, Erdogan's "heart" is still not completely "safe". After the attempted coup, Erdogan continued to prolong the domestic state of emergency, and its political root was still the cost of economic construction when he was in power. In addition to the strong cleansing of the military police and the government, he has always taken high-handed measures in political control. But once its domestic economic situation declines, Erdogan's prestige is bound to be damaged again. The consequences at that time were hard to say.

Peace is good.