1 trillion national debt will be frozen? Don't forget that 70 years ago, the United States frozen us 805 million.

In the past two years, the United States has imposed sanctions on China one after another. After Huawei ZTE, TIKTOK and WeChat were also banned. However, compared with these, there is one thing that worries everyone even more, that is, we still have US dollar bonds as high as 1 trillion. Will these bonds be frozen?

On this issue, netizens are divided into two factions. Some people say that the United States is increasingly bottomless and omnipotent. The other part thinks that the United States dare not freeze our national debt, otherwise it will lose the credit and leadership of the US dollar. Is the fact really that simple?

What many people don't know is that 70 years ago, the US government really frozen our assets of $807 million, and the freezing time was as long as 30 years. However, the older generation of leaders who grew up in the war are not easy to mess with. In this freezing incident, we not only didn't suffer losses, but picked up a big bargain. What happened?

Today we will tell this historical story and discuss whether the United States will freeze our national debt. If it freezes, do we have any countermeasures?

The freezing of our assets by the United States this time also originated from the Korean War.

1950 On June 25th, the Korean War broke out and Seoul was occupied on 27th. Almost at the same time, the United Nations troops led by the United States intervened in the war. After Incheon landed, the situation on the Korean Peninsula took a turn for the worse, and the reason that the lips were dead and the teeth were cold was well understood by China people. The border between China and North Korea 1000 kilometers, American planes directly bombed Dandong City, Liaoning Province. It is imperative to resist US aggression and aid Korea and defend the motherland. 19501June19th, the vanguard 38th Army crossed the Yalu River first. It is the first time in the history of the two countries that China and the United States began to confront each other on the battlefield. Even during the National Government, the United States did not directly send troops to the war. However, for strategic reasons, we adopted the name of volunteers. China and the United States did not declare war. In order not to cause the third world war, the United States also cooperated with the performance and acquiesced in this title. Aircraft are strictly prohibited from crossing the border between China and North Korea.

But on another battlefield, the United States is not so polite to us. 1950 12 16. The U.S. government promulgated the Regulations on Freezing China-DPRK Assets and imposed sanctions on China. Generally speaking, it is divided into two aspects:

So, how much money has the United States been freezing us?

This is controversial. The earliest statistic was $805 million. Later, when the two sides negotiated on this issue, the representative of the United States said that only $401700 million was actually frozen. The reason is that China has taken a series of anti-freezing measures. First, it converts some US dollar positions into Swiss francs, German marks and other non-US dollar currencies and deposits them in Swiss banks. Secondly, mobilize overseas institutions to rescue some materials and funds. However, the representative of China questioned this statement of the United States, because the freezing involves not only government accounts, but also a large number of individuals, as well as financial institutions in other countries, so the exact amount is really difficult to count.

Time is up 1979. This year, China and the United States established diplomatic relations, and a series of historical issues were brought back to the negotiating table, including the assets frozen by China and the United States during the Korean War. After a heated debate, the US government announced the unfreezing of China assets on June19791KLOC-0/. According to the later compensation results, Americans honestly paid back $805 million.

In fact, compared with the US$ 805 million frozen by the United States, our frozen US assets are even larger, reaching 654.38+96.9 million. Moreover, from the freezing of 1950 to the thawing of 1979, for 30 years, we have not paid the Americans a dime of interest, which is equivalent to spending $2 billion in construction funds in vain.

It is estimated that many people will feel strange when they see this. They always hear that the United States freezes the assets of other countries. Why can we freeze $2 billion while the United States only freezes $800 million?

The reason why the United States has only frozen $800 million is only one word, poverty. When New China was first established, it was typically poor and the government had no money. 1952, our country's foreign exchange reserves were only/kloc-0.08 billion US dollars, not to mention individuals. Eating enough is a problem, and we won't go to foreign banks to save money. But this $800 million was already a very large sum of money for China at that time.

Let's talk about how we frozen 2 billion assets in the United States.

After the United States announced the freezing of China's assets, on February 28th, 1950, 1950, the China Administration issued the Order on Controlling American Assets in China and Freezing American Deposits in China, announcing the control and inventory of American assets in China and freezing American government, companies and individuals' deposits in China. 1949 before the founding of new China, due to the existence of a series of unequal treaties, great powers could enjoy privileges in China, so they set up companies in China one after another to grab huge profits. After the founding of New China, some foreign capitals left China, while others stayed. Among them, there are 299 British companies, followed by 2 12 American companies. These companies controlled the most advanced and profitable factories at that time, such as telephone companies, telegraph companies, shipping companies, dock warehouses and so on. Take Shanghai Electric Power Company as an example. This is a company sold by the British to the Americans. By the time it was supervised, its assets had reached $57 million. Americans' massive investment in China has become our weapon to sanction the United States at a critical time.

So the situation at that time was that the United States had a lot of assets in China, while China lost relatively little because it was poor. 1979 after the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, the two countries successively unfrozen frozen assets, and this legacy problem was solved.

However, this historical event has also sounded the alarm for us. Under special circumstances, the possibility of freezing our assets by the United States is not ruled out. Moreover, if similar freezing events happen again, the losses in China will far exceed those 70 years ago.

First of all, we have a large amount of US dollar reserves.

By the end of August, 2020, according to official website's data of China Foreign Exchange Administration, the total foreign exchange officially held by China was 3164.6 billion USD. However, although the unit of valuation is USD, not all our foreign exchange is USD assets. The China Administration of Foreign Exchange did not list the specific amount of US Treasury bonds. This data needs to be checked in official website, the US Treasury Department. The specific data is $65438 +0.074 trillion. It accounts for about one-third of China's total foreign exchange reserves.

What is the concept of $65,438 +0.074 trillion?

In 20 19, Beijing's GDP was 35.37/kloc-0.00 billion RMB, which is about the sum of the wealth created by more than 20 million people in Beijing in two years without eating or drinking. During the Korean War, our foreign exchange reserves were only US$ 654.38+0 billion, which was 654.38+0 billion times in 70 years. It is said that barefoot people are not afraid to wear shoes, but now we have passed the stage of poverty, but a lot of wealth is in the hands of others, which is really worrying.

Second, America's anti-globalization strategy.

Because of the world currency attribute of the US dollar, most countries in the world regard the US dollar as a reserve currency. However, the United States does not need to reserve other countries' currencies, but only symbolically reserves currencies such as the euro and the Japanese yen, which is equivalent to 410.2 billion US dollars. From this perspective, China and the United States are very unequal. In terms of direct investment in China, from June last year 1 to June 1, the United States only had $2.7 billion, which is almost nine Niu Yi dollars compared with our 1 trillion US debt reserve. After the Trump administration came to power, the United States engaged in anti-globalization and called on American enterprises to return in an attempt to isolate China. In fact, the globalization pattern in which you have me and I have you is an important pillar for maintaining world peace. After all, the country is the representative of national interests. If you want to start a war, you will definitely get a ship. But the United States is bent on its own way now, and it is really hard to guess what will happen next.

Third, the dollar-based monetary system and trade settlement system are temporarily irreplaceable.

If the United States freezes our national debt, it will not only lose more than 1 trillion US dollars in assets, but more seriously, the RMB will be excluded from the US dollar international settlement system. The reason why the United States is so arrogant in the world is either fines or sanctions, relying on the hegemonic position of the US dollar. According to the latest data released by SWIFT, the proportion of US dollars in international foreign exchange reserves and international payments is 60% and 38.96% respectively, while RMB is only 2.02% and 65,438+0.965,438+0%, which are not at the same level. Once we are forced to separate from the US dollar, we will face economic fluctuations, unstable exchange rates and difficulties in international trade settlement.

However, although the United States holds financial hegemony, it does not mean that it can sanction other countries at will. Especially for a big country like China.

First of all, there is no suitable name.

Financial sanctions need the cooperation of the international community and strict legal support. Strictly speaking, it needs a UN resolution. The United States, by virtue of its position, applies domestic laws to the whole world, but there are still certain legal constraints in any case, rather than just listening to Trump, such as the International Emergency Economic Power Act and the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. These laws will have certain applicable conditions, such as human rights violations, weapons proliferation, money laundering and so on.

Second, the international credit of the US government.

It is true that the United States can blame 1 trillion national debt for no reason, but if the teacher is unknown. Almost declared the bankruptcy of American credit, and we all know that the core of American financial operation is national debt. The government can't make ends meet every year, and now it has owed a huge debt of $26 trillion. In addition, various financial derivatives are also based on national debt. Once there is a problem with the credit of the national debt, no one will buy the newly issued national debt, and those who have national debt will be anxious, the financial empire will collapse, and the status of the dollar will no longer exist.

Third, shake the offshore dollar market and affect the domestic economy of the United States.

Once the national debt as high as 1 trillion dollars is frozen, the energy generated will be several times or even ten times. About 30% of US dollars are circulating abroad, that is, in the offshore market. Money given away is like spilled water. It is difficult for the Federal Reserve to control the dollar outside the United States, and no one knows how many financial products have been derived from this spilled water. China's $3 trillion reserves have been ranked first in the world for more than ten years, accounting for 30% of the world's foreign exchange reserves, more than twice the second place. China is one of the most important dollar markets outside the United States. The dollar is our weakness and weapon. We are fully capable of using foreign exchange reserves to shake the price and credibility of the US dollar, and the financial capital of Wall Street is actually a castle in the air, which simply cannot withstand the sharp fluctuations of the US dollar and US debt.

Fourth, create a situation of direct confrontation between big countries.

Through the Korean War, we can see that when there are contradictions between big powers, both sides still try to exercise restraint and avoid direct conflict, because everyone knows that the consequences of direct confrontation between big powers are too serious. So, why can't the United States freeze our national debt easily? Because this is a very extreme way, it almost declares hostility and war between the two sides. The United States dare not take this move lightly. If you want to take it, you will definitely take strong countermeasures, and the consequences can only be imagined.

First, sanction financial institutions.

These include fines. For example, the United States fined HSBC $654.38+09 billion for money laundering.

Second, restrict financial transactions and freeze institutional assets.

20 14 When the United States sanctioned Russia, it restricted the international financial borrowing of Russian financial and energy industries. Of course, the United States has also frozen the assets of specific individuals and institutions.

Third, crowd out the international settlement system.

One of the most famous is the SWIFT system. In 20 12, under the pressure of the United States, SWIFT cancelled the membership of more than 30 Iranian banks, and the Iranian economy suffered a major blow. In that year, oil exports fell by 60%, and the currency real also depreciated by 60%. Iran has returned to the era of barter, and some oil companies can only trade in gold. This move is cruel, and the effect is obvious, even completing the task that American soldiers can't complete. Therefore, compared with freezing national debt, it will be simpler and more effective to use the US dollar settlement system to attack opponents.

Fourth, freeze the assets of other central banks.

If we go this far, the sanctions have reached a very serious level. However, the freezing of central bank assets and the default of US debt are actually different, and the US dollar and US debt cannot be equated. Strictly speaking, the credit of American debt is higher than that of US dollar. This can be seen from the issuer that the US debt is an endorsement of American credit, the US dollar is printed by the Federal Reserve, and the nature of the Federal Reserve is a private institution, which naturally cannot be compared with national credit. In theory, as long as the United States exists, US Treasury bonds will remain valid.

Therefore, to sum up, there is only one situation in which US Treasury bonds default, and that is direct hostility between China and the United States. But in order to protect the hard-won construction achievements, what we want is not certainty, but foolproof.

In view of the risks that may be frozen, we have responded from the following aspects:

First, improve the structure of foreign exchange reserves. Reduce the proportion of dollars and increase the reserves of euros, pounds and gold.

Second, promote the internationalization of RMB and build national credit. If we want to get rid of the role of dollar ballast stone, we must transfer the anchor to China's credit, and at the same time expand the scope of use of RMB, and use RMB more in international trade and financing. Adhere to the opening up of finance and trade. This is a prerequisite for the renminbi to go global.

Third, establish a RMB cross-border settlement system. If we can't break the situation that the dollar system dominates the rivers and lakes, it will be subject to people everywhere. And now many countries are aware of the importance of establishing other settlement systems besides the US dollar, including European countries, and are also promoting this project. The share of the euro is not small, and the RMB certainly has a place. Our economy and population also have this strength.

It seems a long way to break the monopoly of the US dollar and open up the stage of the RMB, but 70 years ago, the black road came. Are we still scared today?