China stock market is not a barometer of China's economy! I gave a few examples.

It is true that the stock market is a barometer of the economy, and GDP does not represent the quality of the economy, at least not all. The sharp drop since 0 1 is caused by the market price circulation policy of state-owned shares. If a large number of stocks flood into the market in a short time and there is not enough funds to undertake it, the price will definitely fall and the price will stop falling. Capital * number of shares = market value is relatively fixed for a period of time. What if the number of shares increases and the other two remain unchanged? The price per share will naturally decrease. As for the plunge in 2007, it is essentially the same. A steady stream of stocks have been listed in large numbers, and non-tradable shares have also poured out in large numbers after the lifting of the ban. Coupled with rising prices, the existing funds in the market can't support such a high market value, and a sharp drop will definitely happen. Even if there is no financial crisis, the state has not introduced relevant policies.

Aside from the definition of GDP, it reflects the total added value of various industries in the national economy. As long as you keep printing money, GDP will rise indefinitely, and it is useless to look at GDP alone. Let me give you an example. This is a joke. It is said that two billionaires saw a dog leaving a pile of poop on the road. Regal A said to Regal B, "I'll give you 100 million yuan if you eat this pile, and cash it immediately." Regal B hesitated, walked over and ate, and A fulfilled his promise. Although B won the money, he felt that he had lost a game, and A felt a little sorry. As they walked, they saw another lump of poop. B immediately said the same thing to A, and A ate it back without hesitation. At this moment, A said to B, "What are we doing? We have nothing, only one person is eating a shit. " . B said, "No, we have contributed 200 million yuan of GDP to the country."

In the economic operation, if the price can't freely express the willingness to buy and sell, and the real demand of the market can't be fully considered in the business decision of the enterprise, then any data is distorted. On the other hand, if these two points are achieved, the economic operation will be traced and the analysis will be meaningful. According to this logic, the vast majority of stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen main boards do not have the value of fundamental analysis in the conventional sense. According to my understanding of future policies as a pure China person, asset reorganization and backdoor listing are the inevitable choices for most state-owned enterprises. For those listed companies with deep background of major shareholders and diversified group assets, integration is a matter of time, not one time. In this way, the remaining small-cap stocks, especially private enterprises and listed companies whose products are products of free competition, have the so-called fundamental analysis value. Moreover, the main energy should be put on the analysis of entrepreneurs. Policies are changeable. If entrepreneurs do not have a belief in doing business, it is impossible for enterprises to develop and survive.

After deleting the garbage, you can understand the relationship between the stock market and the economy in the remaining enterprises. The stock market will reflect the economic operation 3-6 months in advance. Enterprises will first feel the economic changes in their operations, and then they will be reflected in their performance, that is, quarterly reports. If those freely competitive enterprises happen to have a decline in business, an increase in inventory and a decline in performance, the question will already be answered. As for government investment, it will only produce crowding-out effect. "Come out and mix, you have to pay it back sooner or later." Aren't you paying the bill now?