Is the country with the strongest potential in Southeast Asia Vietnam or Singapore?

Vietnam ranks among the top 50 economies in the world, accounting for about two-thirds of Shenzhen, with a population of nearly 654.38 billion. From 20 16 to 20 17, the Vietnamese government issued a series of macro policies to open the door to foreign investment, which accelerated the economic growth of Vietnam in the following years.

Because of the rising labor costs in China and the 20 18 trade war, Vietnam has become the production transfer destination of many international companies. Judging from the current wage level, the labor force in Vietnam is really cheap. The minimum wage in China is 2420 yuan/month, and that in Viet Nam is 1 159 yuan/month.

Intel, Uniqlo, Olympus, Microsoft, Foxconn, LG, Sony ... It is estimated that hundreds of companies will set up factories in Vietnam, the most famous of which are Nike and Samsung, and Vietnam carries most of their production lines.

China, a neighboring country, is at home in globalization. Judging from the current development trend, Vietnam's overall economic performance is strong and external demand is rising. Taking advantage of this wave of demand, Vietnam has signed a number of international trade agreements, reduced tariffs and given tax breaks to foreign businessmen who set up factories. At the same time, Vietnamese president Ruan Chunfu also tried his best to crack down on the corruption of domestic officials, implement the restructuring of state-owned enterprises, reduce the national debt burden, and convey the determination of comprehensive reform and opening up to the outside world.

Therefore, we believe that it is still the golden age of Vietnam's development. Even though it is unlikely to become the "second China", its advantages in system, labor force and geographical location are far superior to those of other ASEAN countries.

But it is undeniable that there are systemic risks in Vietnam's economy. Because there is a lot of external information, I will pick two core risks.

(1) Vietnam's economy is growing rapidly, but its industries are not diversified enough.

According to the data of Statistics Vietnam (GSO), Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 7.08% in 20 18, which was the highest level in the past1year. This figure exceeds China's GDP growth of 6.5% in 20 18 years.

However, in terms of per capita GDP, Viet Nam was closer to China in 2006, when the GDP growth rate of China reached 65,438+02.7%. Therefore, although Vietnam's economy has developed at a high speed, it has basically remained above 6% in the past decade, but the speed is only above the average. One of the reasons for this situation is that the industry is not diversified enough.

During Kim Jong-un's trip to Vietnam to learn from the scriptures, there are two places that symbolize the rapid development of Vietnam's economy: Beining, a manufacturing base in Vietnam, and Haiphong Port, an industrial port—representing Vietnam's manufacturing industry and exports respectively.

20 18 the biggest driving force of Vietnam's economic growth is the manufacturing industry, with a growth rate of 13%. According to Vietnam's People's Daily, in 20 17, foreign investment accounted for 23% of Vietnam's GDP, half of its industrial output value was created by FDI enterprises, and about 70% of its exports were brought by foreign direct investment.

This leads to a result ―― the success of Vietnamese development is also the failure of Xiao He. According to the analysis, the pace of foreign investment opening in Vietnam has far exceeded the carrying capacity of the domestic economy, and it is necessary to increase the resilience of the domestic economy by stimulating domestic demand and industrial upgrading.

(2) The population is young, but there is a shortage of talents, and the age is not commensurate with economic development.

By 20 15, the median age of China is 37, while that of Vietnam is only 30.4. This shows that more than half of the Vietnamese population is still young and middle-aged, which is suitable for long-term high-intensity work such as manufacturing.

(Viet Nam on the left and China on the right)

However, most people who set up factories in Vietnam can realize that Vietnamese workers have a fatal shortcoming: there are many people but they don't have the necessary skills. It is difficult to provide higher training and education because of low income. Nearly 77% workers in Vietnam lack professional skills, and only 23.5% have diplomas. At the same time, similar to China, the working population of Vietnamese cities is much lower than that of farmers living in rural areas, but the total agricultural production only accounts for 10% of the national GDP.

China popularized compulsory education on 1986, while Viet Nam started on 200 1. Previously, the popularization of education in China brought sufficient talent reserves for the rapid development after the reform and opening up. But Vietnam has just begun. The lack of quality education is not only a shortage of talents, but also a potential hidden danger of social stability. Think about it, Vietnamese young people with little education, especially bachelors, will be easily angered, which will lead to social unrest.

In addition, The Economist published a report in June last year 165438+ 10, directly pointing out that Vietnam grows old before it gets rich.