The second-hand car industry under the epidemic situation: it is not as bad as imagined.

The Spring Festival in 22 should be said to be the most unforgettable one for the people of China.

It has been two months since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus epidemic. According to the official data of "People's Daily * Lilac Garden", by 12: on February 11th, 22, 42,714 cases were diagnosed, 21,675 cases were suspected and 1,17 cases died. This data shows that the scale of the epidemic in novel coronavirus has surpassed that of SARS 17 years ago.

Many enterprises originally planned to resume work on February 1th, but in the end most of them chose to postpone their work or telecommute. On February 1th, china automobile dealers association conducted a special investigation on its member companies and related enterprises. Of the more than 3 automobile dealer groups surveyed, * * * involved 167 4S stores, only 32 resumed work or partially resumed work. The overall start-up ratio of 4S stores is 28.3%, less than one third.

as for the second-hand car trading market, according to the data of the "national free inquiry tool for car dealers' opening status" (click to directly inquire), as of February 11th, 22, only 21 of the 262 trading markets in China were opened in the tool, and the starting ratio was only 8%. The start date of most used car trading markets is tentatively scheduled for February 17th, depending on the development of the epidemic.

In the past few days, many second-hand car dealers from all over the country have communicated with my Lao Pan, including those from Wuhan. Everyone expressed great pressure, and all of them were worried about what the second-hand car industry would be like in 22 under the influence of the epidemic, and what kind of development trend it would have.

Here, Lao Pan also briefly summarizes several views based on his communication with peers:

1. Second-hand car dealers always rely on their strength to speak.

under the epidemic situation, we have seen major OEMs decompress their dealers one after another, for example, without the KPI assessment of Q1, they can enjoy the reward of picking up the car immediately, the special rebate subsidy for special vehicles is extended, interest-free financing is provided during the epidemic period, financial discount subsidies are provided, and online exhibition halls are opened on platforms such as Tmall. For second-hand car dealers who fight alone, there is no upstream enterprise to support them, and there is no downstream enterprise to help them. Second-hand car dealers are porters of used cars and always rely on themselves and skills.

Of course, there are differences in policies, culture and other aspects in every place. Some used car trading markets responded to the call of the state and reduced the rents of merchants during the epidemic, which is also a direct manifestation of helping each other.

2. Small and medium-sized used car dealers are the core strength of the industry and have the strongest ability to fight.

There has been no accurate statistical caliber for the number of used car dealers. According to the data of china automobile dealers association in 216, the number of used car trading markets in China is * * * 1,68, and the number of service enterprises in the market is 44,274. According to the characteristics of the second-hand car industry with brokers as the transaction subject, it is speculated that the actual number of second-hand car dealers has at least doubled, which does not include employees of various e-commerce platforms.

let's assume that there are 1, used car dealers.

according to the data of china automobile dealers association, from January to December of 219, 14,922,8 used cars were traded nationwide, with a transaction amount of 935.686 billion yuan and an average transaction price of 62,7. Assume that 8% of the transaction volume is generated by physical car dealers, that is, the overall annual transaction volume of used car dealers in China is close to 12 million.

according to this data calculation, based on the number of car dealers of 1,, the annual transaction volume of a single car dealer is 12 units, which translates into 1 units in a single month. According to the average inventory of 45 days, the monthly inventory of car dealers in Man Ku is about 15 units. According to the average transaction price of 62,7, the average inventory amount is about 94,.

That is to say, the average monthly inventory of each car dealer is 94,, regardless of labor cost and rent, and without using inventory financing. The actual situation is that the car dealers will decide whether to increase or decrease the inventory in the current month according to the off-peak season and market conditions. The end of the year is an opportunity to adjust the inventory, which involves the Spring Festival holiday, and basically focuses on clearing the inventory, except for special models.

Let's look at the time from the outbreak to the outbreak, which is close to the Spring Festival in 22. At this time, the inventory of car dealers should be reduced. Assuming a 3% discount, it means that the average inventory of used car dealers during the epidemic period is 94 * 7% = 658,.

assuming that the whole Q1 is in a state of paralysis, it should be logical to offset the discount of vehicles for three months with an average gross profit margin of 3-5%.

according to the above assumptions, during the epidemic period, the average inventory of second-hand car dealers was 688,, and the direct loss of Q1 was the rent and labor cost, and the indirect loss was the loss of bank interest due to fund precipitation, as well as other time costs and uncontrollable factors.

On the whole, small and medium-sized used car dealers are still very strong in fighting.

3. It is equivalent to the extension of off-season.

Many experts and investors are saying that the second-hand car industry is too fragmented for mom-and-pop stores to scale up and replicate. In contrast to the development of the industry, the best cooperation mode of the used car industry is the mom-and-pop shop, which has strong trust, high efficiency, quick decision-making, flexibility and maneuverability, and there is no need to consider flying orders (there is a joke in the industry, if you want to prevent flying orders, let them get married. The joke was made by Lao Pan. For small and medium-sized used car dealers, the delay in returning to work under the epidemic situation is equivalent to the extension of the off-season, and it is far from facing the degree of life and death. Dealing with the off-peak season has long been a habit.

4. Who is the biggest victim?

let's talk about the second-hand car business in the 4S shop system. Although major OEMs and dealer groups are paying more and more attention to the second-hand car business, the second-hand car business is far from affecting the life or death of a 4S shop. That is to say, the second-hand car business in the 4S shop system is supported by OEMs and dealer groups, and it depends mainly on the vitality of dad. Small and medium-sized used cars extend the off-season and will not have a fatal blow. So who is the biggest victim in the industry? 1. A very large independent exhibition hall. High car price, large inventory, high labor cost and high capital cost. 2. Used car e-commerce platform. No matter C2B, B2C or C2C, no matter which mode, second-hand car dealers will always be the transit point of these platforms. In other words, these platforms all rely on second-hand car dealers to survive. Without car dealers, there would be no platform. If there is no second-hand car trading on such a platform, the monthly cost is still relatively fixed, including: annual advertising cost, labor cost, capital cost, store rental cost and so on. For them, it is time to test their cash reserves, otherwise, it is likely that they will face another wave of mass layoffs. 3. Third-party service organizations, similar to point 2. Smaller scale, controllable cost and diversified business can survive this difficult period. 4. Start-ups. Start-ups that rely on second-hand car trading have a great impact on their living space without cash flow.

5. What are the chances after the epidemic?

There are two opinions now: one is that there will be a small peak of car purchase after the novel coronavirus epidemic, just like the small peak of car consumption after SARS in 23; Another point of view is just the opposite. There will be no car buying peak, and the national economy will go down and face a turning point.

Let's look at the data first:

In p>23, the number of cars in China was 24 million, less than one tenth of that in the United States. The production and sales of cars were 4,443,7 and 4,39,8 respectively, and the annual transaction volume of used cars was 878,9.

in p>219, the number of automobiles in China reached 26 million, and the automobile production and sales were 25.721 million and 25.769 million, respectively, down by 7.5% and 8.2% year-on-year. However, it continued to rank first in the world for eleven years, and the second-hand car transaction volume was 14.9228 million, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.96%.

two sets of data show that it is an indisputable fact that China's automobile market has changed from "incremental era" to "stock era", and the development of used cars has become an endogenous driving force to activate the automobile market.

during the epidemic, the safety factor of private cars is much higher than that of public transportation. After the epidemic, there should be a wave of car buying climax, and second-hand cars with high cost performance must be the best choice for consumers.

strengthening brand building, keeping the car condition transparent, and paying attention to the standardized operation of after-sales service will become the general trend of the development of used cars. If the second-hand car market and its dealers don't change their ideology in time, the second-hand car business of 4S shops based on the dual-brand endorsement of the OEM and dealer group will definitely jump up.

I hope that the epidemic will end soon.

6. What should we do now?

It's almost time for a rare holiday, so it's time to do something:

Don't read rumors, talk less about gossip;

read more books and supplement your knowledge, which will definitely be needed in the future;

Pay attention to enterprise dynamics and see how other industries and enterprises responded during the epidemic;

Learn online and see how other people's Tik Tok is played;

Dare to try, open a live video to try the water;

Exercise, a strong body is the foundation of everything;

think hard, write articles and send them to me, and I'll help you publish them, and share good things with you.

wechat WeChat official account: Pan Pan (id:carman228)

This article comes from the author of Chejiahao, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.