Why is Zhao Kuo so easy to deceive?

Zhao Kuo is not that easy to deceive, and Bai Qi is not that shrewd.

The changing of generals before the formation is all part of the drama, and there are not so many thirty-six strategies in real war. In the case of crushing strength, the art of war has no effect. However, when the strength is equal, can the art of war work?

Soldiers are deceitful. Therefore, when it is possible, it is shown that it cannot be used, and when it is used, it is shown that it is not used.

This sentence itself has a huge flaw. That is: you want to deceive people, so you can show them that you can't, and show them that you don't use them. If you want to deceive people, you must first establish a self-evident premise, which is: you are smarter than your opponent and you know information that your opponent does not know.

But where are there so many unsmart opponents for you to cheat? How can there be so much information related to life and death that you know but your opponent doesn't?

So, sometimes the art of war and trickery are just deceiving oneself and others. The art of war is useless and the tricks are nonsense, so what is the key? The key may be the probability of a gamble. 01. Is the contest between Qin and Zhao a crushing contest of strength, or a contest of equal strength

Since Qin Mi Bazi and Wei Ran, Qin and the Warring States Period have always beaten whoever they want, and whoever they beat will die. Bai Qi's various miraculous achievements were all created in this era. In the Battle of Changping, the Zhao State was brutally killed, but Bai Qi's killing of the Chu State was no worse than that of the Zhao State.

How is Zhao Guo doing during this time period? To be honest, not great. After King Zhao Wuling, Zhao basically did not do much, even if he wanted to create a hot spot and make headlines. The most they can do is cause some friction with the rogue Yan State in the north.

However, Zhao's military strength completed an upgrade after King Zhao Wuling. One is strong mobilization ability. Although the domestic organization is not centralized enough, military mobilization is quite strong. Simply put, it can recruit soldiers; the other is Zhao's martial arts. After full exchanges with the grassland peoples, the soldiers, the army and the fighting style are not weak. . In addition, another point is that Zhao has not fought many major battles and its strength has been preserved. Therefore, the Zhao State should be the strongest military among the six Kanto Kingdoms, and the only Warring States State that can fight Qin.

There is also the Seventeen Cities of Shangdang. This place should indeed belong to the Qin State. Because South Korea ceded territory to pay compensation, it had already ceded Shangdang to Qin. However, after all, the Shangdang area is too far away from Qin's mainland, so Qin's combat capabilities must be discounted when compared to Shangdang. And what about Zhao State? The Shangdang area is very close to Handan, the capital of the Zhao Kingdom. It crosses the Taihang Trail and is the Shangdang area. Therefore, in the key part of Shangdang, Zhao State has a distance advantage and can devote its combat power more efficiently.

So, Qin is indeed very strong, but Zhao is not weak either, especially militarily. In the Shangdang area, Zhao's war efficiency is higher, so it can completely make up for the disadvantage of insufficient national strength. Therefore, the battle between Qin and Zhao Changping was a closely matched contest. 02. Zhao Kuo initiated a gamble in the Battle of Changping because he had no choice but to do so

The Battle of Changping broke out in April 260 BC. The veteran Lian Po faced off against the Qin general Wang Lu. At the beginning, Lian Po was not conservative at all, and the Zhao army was not afraid of the enemy at all, and took the lead in launching an attack on the Qin army. What is the purpose of the attack? The purpose is to drive the Qin army out of the Shangdang Highlands. As long as the Qin army retreats to Hanoi and the Zhao army is all set to Shangdang, Zhao will gain a geographical advantage.

Lian Po thought very well, but he really couldn't beat him on the battlefield because the Qin army was so good at fighting. It can be said that Zhao Jun has never encountered such a tough opponent in the Six Kingdoms of Kanto. Not only could they not defeat Zhao Jun, they were also chased and beaten by Qin Jun. The battlefield was tough and Zhao Jun couldn't stand it, so Zhao Jun had no choice but to retreat and hold on, retreating to the east of Danshui. This was July 260 AD.

This is a change in the battlefield situation. The Qin army is aggressive and the Zhao army is weak and developed. The situation in the temple has also changed. Zhao Guo wants to change his commander and replace Lian Po with Zhao Kuo. Moreover, it is not as simple as changing the coach. Zhao Kuo did not come to the Changping front line alone. He also brought 200,000 Zhao reinforcements.

There must be discrepancies in the numbers. Warring States wars often involved hundreds of thousands or hundreds of thousands, so there must be some exaggeration. But what we can know from this is that it is certain that Zhao will change his commander and increase his troops. Therefore, the scale of the Changping Battle expanded. As the scale of war expands, war consumption will increase, and at this time we have to fight for national strength. There are four hundred people on the battlefield. It doesn't matter anymore. What matters is whose family has more food.

It stands to reason that Zhao State should have an advantage over Qin State. This advantage is the key local advantage of Shangdang. The reason is that it is close to home. But the fact is that the Qin State has a really strong family background. The Zhao State cannot compete with the Qin State in terms of family wealth, and the difference is even two orders of magnitude. Therefore, in the key part of Changping, Zhao Guo has no advantage at all.

Since we can’t compete with our country’s strength, we can only fight quickly. The purpose of Zhao State's plan to launch a full-line offensive is to maximize the violence of war before all food and resources are exhausted. Doing so may have two results:

One result is to drive the Qin army out of the Shangdang area. As long as Shangdang is driven out, the Qin army will have to invest more resources if it wants to climb up again. This was Lian Po's original war vision. Lian Po couldn't do it, could Zhao Kuo do it? The general is not important, what is important is that Zhao Kuo brought 200,000 reinforcements. The two sides were originally in an evenly matched confrontation, but suddenly Zhao had an increase of 200,000 people. This was the injection of new external power.

When both sides have great consumption, it will attract the intervention of external forces such as Qi, Wei, Chu, and Han. Qin and Zhao were defeated, and the other warring states who were eyeing him would naturally intervene. In this case, the war will end early.

So, from Zhao's point of view, winning or losing the war is no longer the main issue, but ending the war is. The reason why Zhao State is anxious to end the Shangdang War is because its national strength does not allow it. If it continues to be wasted, Zhao will suffer economic bankruptcy. Therefore, Zhao Kuo's initiative to attack was also a last resort. 03. King Zhaoxiang of Qin also wants to play a game on the gambling table, with the purpose of defeating Zhao State

Yan State and Qi State are too far away, and Qin State cannot fight even if it wants to. Moreover, Qin and Yan Qi also established friendly relations despite their distant friendship and close attack. Therefore, in the eyes of the people of Qin, except Yan and Qi, all other countries must fight. Chu State was defeated, Han and Wei were defeated, and only Zhao State was left.

Therefore, Qin must occupy Shangdang and beat Zhao severely. The State of Qin is on the rise of its career, and if it wants to make further progress, it must fight against the State of Zhao.

However, Qin did not expect that the battle between Qin and Zhao would come so quickly. Qin also had its own plan, that is, after taking the seventeenth city of Shangdang, it would then send troops out of the Taihang Mountains to compete with Zhao.

However, Zhao Guo is not a fool. He made it clear that he would not allow Qin Guo to get the Shangdang Highlands. Therefore, taking over Shangdang and beating Zhao Guo can be completed in one battle.

As a result, during the peace talks between Qin and Zhao, Qin was not idle and was also desperately sending additional troops to the Changping front line. As for whether Qin's spies have the ability to lead Zhao's temple to replace generals on the battlefield and replace Lian Po with Zhao Kuo, it is best to treat it as a joke.

Zhao Kuo and his father Ma Fujun Zhao She beat the Qin army painfully. During the Warring States Period, nobles led troops and military families led generals. No one can say that Zhao Kuo must be an armchair warrior. It is impossible for Qin to know that Zhao Kuo is a waste, and he is also a very confident waste.

Moreover, Zhao Kuo also has his own advantage, that is, he resolutely implements Zhao Guomiaotang's decision, which is to attack as soon as possible and end the Changping War as soon as possible. This is something veteran Lian Po cannot do. There are both military and political issues in fighting a war, and on political issues, Zhao Kuo is stronger than Lian Po.

When Zhao Kuo attacks, Qin's best strategy should be to defend without fighting, that is, to fight you. But King Qin Zhaoxiang refused to do this and insisted on defeating Zhao Jun on the battlefield. As a result, Qin not only increased its troops but also changed generals, and Bai Qi became the commander-in-chief of the Qin army's former enemies. This is the rhythm of Qin's preparation for Stud. 04. Gambling is all about probability. Qin has a good chance of winning, but Zhao Kuo is not without a chance of winning.

So he deceived and killed all of them, leaving 240 of the younger ones to return to Zhao. They beheaded and captured 450,000 people.

The meaning of this sentence is: In the entire battle of Changping, Bai Qi wiped out 450,000 enemies in one attack, not 450,000 prisoners of war in one attack. And what about the Qin army? The Qin army also suffered more than 200,000 casualties. Not only did the losses on the battlefield be serious, but the Qin State also basically lost all its wealth. The so-called "country was empty and the people were hungry." If Qin had not been unable to conquer, King Qin Zhaoxiang would not have accepted Prime Minister Fan Ju's suggestion and allowed Han and Zhao to cede territory and cease the war.

The king heard this and cut off the six cities of Han, Yuanyong and Zhao to make peace. In the first month, everyone stopped their troops.

What can be seen from this is that Zhao Kuo took the initiative to attack and it was not completely in vain. Although he was not able to kill 800 enemies by losing 1,000, he still managed to kill 500 by losing 1,000. Hundred. King Qin Zhaoxiang, Bai Qi and the Qin soldiers won this battle not easily at all.

The state of Qin and the army of Qin were severely beaten by Zhao Kuo.

Zhao Kuo's bet was to end the war as soon as possible, while Qin's bet was to completely defeat the Zhao army. It can be said that Qin won the bet and Zhao Kuo lost the bet. When you win or when you lose, you always have to look for reasons. There are generally three reasons:

One is that Qin is better than the temple, which increases the chance of winning. The goal of the Qin State Temple is clear and consistent, that is, to capture Shangdang County and to destroy the State of Zhao. However, Zhao Guomiaotang has been hesitant. First he hesitated whether to join the party, then hesitated whether to cease the war, and finally hesitated to change generals on the battlefield. In his own hesitation, Zhao Guo lost all his chips.

The other is Qin’s strength and Qin’s determination. If Qin and Zhao are completely equal in strength, Zhao will definitely be able to gain Shangdang's key local advantage. However, the Qin State was too powerful, so the Zhao State had never taken any advantage at Shangdang's doorstep. When Zhao Kuo fought a decisive battle with Changping, the temples of Zhao State were filled with fear. And what about Qin?

The King of Qin heard that Zhao's food supply was exhausted, so he moved to Hanoi and granted each rank of civil nobility. Those who were fifteen years old or above were sent to Changping, thus blocking Zhao's efforts to save food.

King Qin Zhaoxiang basically went on the expedition himself. Bai Qi was fighting in the front, and King Zhaoxiang went directly to Hanoi County for transportation. Moreover, at the critical moment of the decisive battle, the Qin State was still devoting its strength to the front line, and all the men over 15 years old in Hanoi County were sent to Bai Qi's army. This intensity and determination are completely unmatched by Zhao Guo.

Another one is Bai Qi’s imagination. Sun Tzu's Art of War says: If you are ten, you are to encircle it; if you are five, you are to attack it; if you double it, you are to divide it. What is Bai Qi playing? Bai Qi's plan is to surround you with an army of 500,000. Zhao Kuo's army of 500,000 is surrounded. This kind of imagination is unmatched by Zhao Kuo, a fledgling nobleman.

However, Bai Qi is also taking risks. Because 500,000 people surround 500,000 people, but if one point is broken through, Zhao Kuo will definitely be able to achieve his strategic goal: either drive the Qin army off the Shangdang Highlands, or he will lose one thousand to himself and kill eight hundred of the enemy. It is even possible Lose 800 to yourself and kill 1,000 to the enemy.

Why can Bai Qi have such a magical imagination? Why did King Qin Zhaoxiang dare to bet with Zhao Kuo in a stud way? The reason is that the Qin warriors are really good at fighting. This group of people never retreats and almost never loses. King Zhaoxiang of Qin dared to play Stud with Zhao Kuo because he had confidence in the Qin warriors; Bai Qi dared to play 500,000 to 500,000 because he had confidence in the Qin warriors.

Final summary:

Mortals are not that easy to deceive, and Zhao Kuo, a family of famous generals, is not that easy to deceive. The reason why he took the initiative to launch an attack was because of the political decision-making of the Zhao Guomiao Temple. Is it because of Zhao's national strength, or because he is confident in his 200,000 Zhao reinforcements.

The Battle of Changping was a huge gamble between Qin and Zhao. In this huge gamble, Zhao Kuo had no chance of winning. Because his goal was very low, either to drive the Qin army out of Shangdang, or to kill 800 enemies at the cost of a thousand losses. The whole goal was to end the war as soon as possible.

The Battle of Changping was shared by two people on the Qin side. One was King Zhaoxiang of Qin, who wanted to make a bet with Zhao Kuo, and the other was the famous general Bai Qi. With extraordinary imagination, I dare to surround and eat your army of hundreds of thousands.

King Qin Zhaoxiang and Bai Qi dared to bet with Zhao Kuo, mainly because Qin's goal was clear, Qin's preparations were sufficient, and Qin's national strength could really withstand this war. The most critical hard bargaining chip is that the Qin soldiers and the Qin army are really the best at fighting.