Tell me a joke: Weilai is going to go bankrupt this year!

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Today is a good day for NIO.

Hefei City today held the "2020 Hefei City Major Industrial Project Centralized (Cloud) Signing and JAC NIO EC6 Mass Production Project Launching Ceremony" at the JAC NIO Automobile Factory in Hefei.

I wonder if you still remember Yizhuang State Investment’s 10 billion?

That one disappeared later and blew up.

Not to mention how badly Weilai’s stock price fell that day. After all, the 10 billion at that time was equivalent to a life-saving straw for Weilai.

At that time, many people asked me backstage, would Weilai fail?

My answer is: No, because the value of Weilai as a company is nothing more than how much blood Li Bin sheds. There are plenty of people to take over, but it will definitely not go bankrupt.

So today’s news that Hefei introduced NIO’s China headquarters and signed a framework agreement with an investment of more than 10 billion is actually not surprising at all in my opinion.

Most of the media have already talked about the specific analysis and pros and cons of this matter. In fact, after all that, the final summary is just one sentence: Through cooperation with the Hefei government, NIO has achieved a certain level of success. I finally got the death-free gold medal.

You can refute what happened with Mr. Luo and the Chengdu government, but what you can’t deny is that Smartisan phones really have problems, and everyone who has tried NIO’s cars thinks they are pretty good.

I wonder if you still remember the article I wrote a few days ago about Geely’s investment in NIO?

Although Geely’s investment in Volvo was very popular at the time and seemed to be just short of an official announcement, I am still not optimistic about it.

As expected today, things have been verified. Before Geely, Weilai chose the Hefei government and made no comment on Geely’s investment.

In fact, this is not surprising. Let me explain the logic to you again:

First of all, NIO is positioned as a high-end new energy brand in China (don’t care whether it is true or not, Anyway, NIO itself is positioning it like this). With this positioning and actual sales of tens of thousands of units, NIO has its scarcity as an asset.

After all, I have said it many times. Apart from Weilai, the only domestic brand that can sell for 400,000 yuan is Hongqi.

But Hongqi is a well-established brand, so for many independent brands, if they can acquire Weilai, it is actually a very cost-effective thing to supplement their brand lineup.

Because from the secondary market point of view, Weilai is indeed not expensive - a market value of 4 billion to 5 billion US dollars, which corresponds to almost 35 billion to 40 billion yuan. SAIC Group expects to achieve a net profit of about 256 in 2019. Judging from 100 million yuan, in theory, you can buy Weilai without eating or drinking for 2 years.

But NIO’s scarcity does not exist for Geely.

China? Geely and Lynk & Co themselves are like this, and the acquisition of Volvo makes everyone feel that Geely is awesome.

New energy? Geely's own Emgrand EV sells well, and Volvo also owns Polestar.

High-end brand? Isn’t Volvo polestar enough?

So for Geely, NIO is really not very attractive.

But it is different for Hefei.

Once Weilai comes over, it will be a lot of tax revenue plus jobs. In addition, Jianghuai has in-depth cooperation with Weilai, and the country encourages the new energy industry, so for Hefei, Introducing Weilai is indeed a very cost-effective thing.

Then why did Li Bin not want to come to Hefei directly before?

Regarding this matter, I asked a friend who has worked in the financial market for 10 years. He shared his views with me. It was quite interesting. I have coded it here for your reference:

There is something you may not know - the automobile industry around the world is deeply tied to the government because it is too important for taxation, employment and industry promotion.

Including Iron Man and his Tesla, it seems that others are begging him, but in fact Tesla is deeply tied to the governments of Nevada and California.

But NIO is different.

Li Bin wants to create a brand new model - to make money through R&D and sales. In this case, Weilai may find other OEMs at any time. For example, the second-generation platform Weilai has the possibility of finding Geely as an OEM, right? To put it more deeply, what Li Bin means is that I can go to the entire market to inquire about prices without building a factory. Not only can I get the lowest price, but I can also choose different partners.

But what Li Bin did means that he was going against the government and the entire automobile industry alone. However, Weilai does not have the capital to bargain with the government or other manufacturers.

In fact, engineers in the automotive industry have told me that the prices of many of NIO’s purchases are higher than those of some traditional car companies. This is also the reason why NIO’s gross profit is almost always negative. After all, your NIO order volume is currently so small compared to Volkswagen and Toyota. Why should they open a back door for you?

The summary is:

——The automobile industry chain is too long, and Weilai cannot integrate upstream suppliers. Therefore, Li Bin's previous idea was almost certain to fail.

But fortunately, Weilai finally got the death-free gold medal, and there is hope for the second-generation platform.

With hope, everything is easy to say.

Finally, here’s a joke: Weilai is going to go bankrupt this year!

Run! Go! Report! Report!

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This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.