Is China strong?

If such information is credible, it will be very exciting and encouraging-

According to a survey conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington think tank, and the Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun, 65.5% of the respondents believe that China will become the most powerful country in the world in 10 years. (China News Network, February 13)

Once upon a time, "catching up with Britain and catching up with the United States" was our dream. In order to achieve that grand goal at an early date, how much effort we have made, how ridiculous and ridiculous. Decades have passed, and we no longer talk about the slogan of "catching up with Britain and catching up with the United States". Unconsciously, the "British Empire" of that year was really surpassed by us. Only Japan and Germany separated us from the pursued object and then surpassed Japan. Just because we had that terrible experience, we can't say it ourselves, lest we be laughed at by others. At this time, a famous "think tank" abroad gave us a timetable: it only takes 10 years for this grand goal to come true. This is what foreign experts say, not that we are daydreaming there. This really makes people who are still thinking about catching up with the United States feel this kind of "happiness".

However, think calmly, after ten years, can we really sit on the top of the world? Yes, since the reform and opening up, our comprehensive national strength has been greatly improved in the world, and our ranking has been very high. Even Britain has really been surpassed by us. Is it time to catch up with America? Of course, we have to catch up, but how long will it take? I'm afraid we'd better treat the predictions of foreign "think tanks" as "fortune tellers" and laugh them off.

Yes, our comprehensive national strength has improved rapidly in recent years. According to Hu Angang and Meng Honghua's research, the relative gap between China and the United States in economic strength (GDP is calculated at constant international dollar price 1990) has obviously narrowed, from 4 times of 1980 to less than 2 times of 1998; The relative gap of comprehensive national strength between China and the United States has narrowed from five times of 1980 to three times of 1998. In other words, in the past 20 years, the gap with the United States has been greatly narrowed. In 2008, according to the report in the 10th ranking of global comprehensive national strength released by the United States, China's comprehensive national strength ranks fourth in the world, which ranks third in economic strength, third in military strength, eighth in scientific and technological strength and tenth in educational strength. China's comprehensive national strength is equivalent to 48% of that of the United States, including 92% in politics, 89% in diplomacy, 88% in resources, 36% in military affairs, 25% in economy, 20% in science and technology, and 0/2% in education. The above data tells us that the gap between China and the United States narrowed relatively quickly in the first 20 years, but it slowed down in the last 10 year. Let's say that today's comprehensive national strength gap is more than doubled, but it still depends on its composition. The comprehensive national strength is equivalent to 48% of that of the United States, of which 92% is political power and 89% is diplomatic power and resources. In any case, these three items are not much different from those in the United States. They greatly improved the score of China's comprehensive national strength. China is very close to the United States politically and diplomatically. Probably, both sides are permanent members of the UN Security Council and have the same "one-vote veto", so in many things, the influence is not much different, but we all know that the influence of China and the United States in world affairs, especially in diplomacy, is still very different. As for the strength of resources, we have a special advantage in manpower, but we know best. Today, we have a large quantity, but the quality is not high, which is exactly our headache. The mismatch between human resources and other resources makes it a long-standing problem for us to solve the employment problem of labor force, which is actually based on our resource strength and then on our comprehensive national strength. So these indicators are not necessarily scientific and reliable. And the latter indicators, our scores are too low, and I think these indicators are more credible. For example, our economic strength is only equivalent to 25% of the United States, which can be said by data. In 2007, the output value of the United States was $ 654.38+0.3 trillion, while ours was less than $3 trillion. The gap is obvious. When it comes to per capita output value, we can simply calculate it ourselves. 10 years, we let the Americans stay put (will they sleep there and wait for us to catch up? ) and our output value has increased by 10 more than one trillion dollars, which is ridiculous. Now the world economic crisis, the United States may suffer more than China, but after all, the United States is so big. As the saying goes, thin camels are bigger than horses, and their endurance will be much stronger in the face of economic crisis. It is difficult to repeat the story of China's rapid economic growth in previous years. If a country's economic strength is poor, it is obviously unrealistic to want to have a particularly great influence in the world. Economy or foundation. Without this foundation, the "building" of comprehensive national strength will not soar.

It is reported that the theme of this survey is "Asia after 10", which was jointly conducted by the United States and Japan, and 3 13 of the well-known diplomatic experts from 9 countries including the United States, Japan, China, South Korea, Australia, India, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand answered, thus reaching the above conclusion. We can't know the basis of their conclusion. Maybe some people chose it out of a good wish for China to surpass the United States, so I'm afraid we can't especially thank them because they voted for us. For example, both Japanese and Indian seem to have chosen China. Do they really think so? In my impression, these two countries are not friendly enough to China. Did you deliberately choose to stimulate Americans? Tell Americans in a special way: China will surpass you in ten years, and your boss's position will be taken away by China. Careless! I hope this is just the author's belly with the heart of a villain. According to a poll conducted by BBC International, in 2008, the international community's impression of China turned negative, and its views on France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Britain, Japan, the Philippines, Turkey and Egypt all deteriorated significantly. Against this background, it is really surprising that China can get more than 65% of the high votes. The current international situation is complicated, and we should pay more attention to many things. When others praise us, we need to think about whether we really deserve that "praise". There are many things that fool people now.

If China can surpass the United States to become the most powerful country in the world within ten years, it will be a great blessing for the Chinese nation, but it is not a trivial matter to be happy. It is not a trivial matter to be cheated by others and drugged by others' sweet anesthetics.

According to the comprehensive national strength of the Yellow Book on the International Situation, the United States ranks first with the absolute advantage of almost all projects, far ahead of other countries.

Britain, which ranks second, has certain advantages in capital, information, human capital and technology, and the level of natural resources is average.

Russia ranks third, with only natural resources in a certain advantage, but it is at a considerable disadvantage in terms of technology, human capital, financial resources and information power.

France ranks fourth, and ranks sixth in national strength and resources. Its scientific and technological strength and human capital are average, and its capital strength and information strength are strong, but its natural resources are relatively backward.

Germany ranks fifth in terms of national strength and resources, but its overall technical level is higher, ranking third after the United States and Japan.

China ranks sixth in comprehensive national strength. The development advantages of China's national strength resources lie in its abundant labor resources, abundant capital resources, long-term stable domestic environment, and its backward technical level, low labor quality, backward information power, incompatible systems, environment and infrastructure supporting innovation system. At the same time, the government's policies and guidelines of striving for progress steadily and the overall national strength resources are in a backward position. In China's national strength system, the diplomatic strength and military strength are stronger, the government's regulatory power ranks fourth, and the economic strength ranks sixth, while the national strength resources are only higher than those of Russia and India, and the national strength structure is unbalanced.

Japan ranks seventh, with abundant national strength and resources, second only to the United States, and ranks higher in all projects except natural resources.

Canada ranks eighth, and ranks fourth in national strength and resources. Natural resources have considerable advantages, and other resources are basically in the middle or downstream position.

South Korea ranks ninth, and its national strength and resources rank seventh. Among them, the information power is strong and other aspects are weak.

India's national strength is the weakest among the top ten countries. In the national resources, except natural resources, other aspects are at a disadvantage, and the whole is the weakest among the big countries.

The Yellow Book believes that overall, the development of comprehensive national strength cannot be achieved overnight. On the one hand, the improvement of comprehensive national strength needs the balanced development of all elements in the national strength system, on the other hand, it needs to seize the commanding heights of scientific and technological progress and develop leading industries in the global innovation system. Whoever has these conditions will become a powerful country in the future.

Total GDP ranking of comprehensive national strength in 2004

No 1。 America America

No2。 Britain and Japan

Third. Russia and Germany

Fourth place. France