Is Bitcoin’s “M top” scary? Don't tremble

Text/Senior Strategy Analyst of Guibi Coin Hello everyone, I am K God. I only like to study K-line. My friends call me "K-line maniac". You can call me Old K.

God K said

Bitcoin made a comeback yesterday at a new high. As of writing this article, there is still no obvious signal to stop the decline. Are you trembling again amid all the despair?

News

Many people interpret the news of India’s ban on cryptocurrency as the reason for the market decline. This logic is unreasonable. It is very simple logic. Ah San’s purchasing power is not good. , cannot affect the market, and even the Chinese people have no pricing power, Ah San has a hammer. Moreover, it’s not just a day or two since India banned Bitcoin. It was speculated countless times a few years ago and even last year. Russia also banned it, so just take this kind of news and don’t take it seriously. The rise and fall of the market has its own logic, don't follow what others say.

The BMW M8 Coupe has been sold with 100% cryptocurrency payment, and the price of the car is 1.968 million yuan. At first glance, this information seems ordinary to Louis Koo, but it will be interesting if you think about it carefully. According to the current price of Bitcoin, it means that only 5 Bitcoins are needed to purchase this car. Then an interesting question arises: the higher the price of Bitcoin, the more willing people may be to own or even use Bitcoin. Because Bitcoin fluctuates violently, you can get a better purchasing experience by using Bitcoin at a relatively high level, and you can even make your own money to a certain extent - currently 5 Bitcoins are worth about 2 million yuan, assuming a bear market decline of 80%. It means that you use less money to get better goods and services, because in a bear market, the total price of these 5 Bitcoins may only be 400,000 RMB. From another perspective, it can be understood that you bought it with 400,000 RMB. For a product priced at RMB 2 million, you make a net profit of RMB 1.6 million. I don’t know if this logic is correct, but I think that the higher the price of Bitcoin, the better it is for its promotion and use, because the price that needs to be paid will not become higher as the price rises, but will make the value of Bitcoin greatly promote. I will have to think carefully about the payment properties of Bitcoin later. Because according to our past experience, if your money is worth more every day than yesterday, you will not be willing to use it, similar to gold. But the high volatility of Bitcoin seems to perfectly solve this problem - within a certain period of time, it will drop sharply compared to before yesterday, but it will fall sharply in a certain period, so it is not easy for people to store it for a long time and be reluctant to use it. Well worth pondering.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Children's Shoes showed a unilateral decline after 12 noon yesterday, because it fell below the previous high of 58,326 US dollars. In theory, if the previous high breakthrough is valid If it breaks through, then it should not fall below if it is stepped back. Before 12 o'clock yesterday, the ascending channel rebounded from the lower track and showed a parallel trend of yin and yang. The situation is very good. After 12 o'clock, it turned sharply and fell all the way without any rebound in the middle. As of today's writing, the lowest quotation is 53,266 US dollars, which is just a hair away from the strong support of 53,000 US dollars.

Why did it fall like this and whether it will fall again? In fact, Lao K has no answer, because I can’t understand this decline at all, and there is no logic or clue. Just like the past trends, there are always clues and reasons to find the purpose behind Brother Li, but this time, to be honest, there is nothing. I am confused. This situation is not uncommon. It has happened in every rebound in the past. Even people like me who are "professional" and follow Li Ge are fooled. So it is conceivable that for people who don't think about Li Ge, they don't know what the market is going to do. And often times like this, it means that Brother Li is about to start making real big moves. In the words of old users in the community, when old K can’t even understand it and starts to doubt the market, it means the market is about to start. This is a joke, but it's true. For example, as a dead bull, I suspected that there was something wrong with the market many times in the process, and I depended on a mouthful of chicken blood to survive. For example, the price of 9834 US dollars fluctuated. At that time, it could really rise or fall back; another example was the adjustment of 19425 US dollars. , that wave can be played hard to get back 13,200 US dollars. At that time, I also made a callback plan, but in the end I didn't go.

The same is true for the current situation. In theory, I should have made a plan, but I decided not to do anything because it turned out to be a fool's errand. So you can consider the following content, but don’t pay too much attention to it:

First of all, the monthly level:

The monthly moving average deviates, and in this case there is a possibility of stepping back on the moving average. Possibility, and the previous two months have been in the long upper shadow line mode, everyone thinks it is time to look for it this month. Previously, many people were bearish at US$43,000 because this thing was responsible. But no, the opening position in March was the lowest and it reached a new high. This new high means that the previous pressure on the long shadow line is just a cloud. Since the pressure is just a cloud, it is indeed difficult to understand if it falls back. However, because there is still half a month to close the monthly line, according to the current market volatility, it is easy to pull back. It's just idle, so the biggest significance of this monthly line is to break through the previous high of 58,326 US dollars. It declares that this pressure is useless, which means that it is more important to guide the direction.

At the weekly level:

At present, the weekly short-term moving average has not been broken yet. The kiwi fruit hit a new high in the past. Logically speaking, it should continue to rise. It is indeed difficult to see a fall back. I understand, but at least the moving average is still there, and there is still time for the weekly closing line, so it is just a matter of waiting.

The daily line is more interesting, that is, this trend will give people a strong psychological suggestion of a double M head, and the effect of creating panic is quite good. Anyway, at least for now, I am confused, right? However, the performance of the market is very strange. Only large-capitalization varieties have always protected the shipments of small-capitalization varieties. I have never seen small-capitalization varieties surge to cover the shipments of large-capitalization varieties. Furthermore, the volume can only be slightly larger than yesterday. In addition, it was not big at all before, and the probability of shipment was too low, but it was really scary. Many people say that it is a big double top. You must know that once this big double top comes true, it cannot be blocked by US$43,000. It may go as low as US$28,800. After all, that is where the neckline is:

But if it is a big double top, then the problem arises again. The big double top means that this bull market cycle cannot be higher. According to the previous bear market experience, it has dropped 80% every time. According to a simple calculation, it will not stop until it falls back to the US$12,360 level. Moreover, the bear market lasts for several years, and the institution has a loss of US$40,000. Even buying it for 50,000 US dollars, just to kill it and wait for a few years? There must be something wrong with your brain. Furthermore, before, Lige protected the price of 28,800 U.S. dollars from a double-bottom rebound, including the 16,200 U.S. dollars, from falling. Obviously, he did not give people a lower chance. Now you are making a big double top to get back to the 12,000 line. Why did you spend so much effort before? Are you free? Moreover, in terms of market performance, the established counterfeit currencies are still holding strong, so why should they fall? The old traditional mainstream is still at the level of 6,000 US dollars in Bitcoin. If you fight back, these old guns will have to fall out of the sky. There is nothing in a bull market, and it has reached a new low. What kind of bull market is this, a colorful sacred cow? Therefore, if we work backwards, this cannot be an M top. Besides, there is no pattern of M tops in the history of Bitcoin. They are all triangle tops. So in summary, this can't be a top, it can only be a way of washing the market and shaking people.

In 4 hours:

When US$43,000 rebounded, it was a complex head-and-shoulders bottom pattern. Now it has fallen and turned into a complex head-and-shoulders top pattern. The head-shoulders top-bottom pattern alternates between each other. It blends together without any twist. To put it bluntly, what is it, a box. So if you have to analyze the reason here, it would be box vibration plus some inducement factors. The box is relatively clear:

It is divided into two modes. One is a double bottom rebound (white path), which is faster. At most, it will break through in early April, because this This kind of oscillation is tossing, so you can go straight to the beginning of 10 at the end, and there is no tossing in the middle. If it is a slow type, then the box oscillation path (purple path) will take more time. It will break through around late April or mid-May, and the target will be higher than the white path, because it takes more time to wash the market more fully. But there will be a fatal problem, time and space will be seriously imbalanced. In this case, unless the upper limit of the solidification space is greatly opened, the probability is a bit low. So although there are some changes in the current details, the best path is still the 75710 mode.

In 15 minutes:

The Fibonacci retracement position of US$43,000 rebounded to US$61,800 as shown in the figure above. The current price is between 50% and 61.8%, which is still normal. In the callback state, only when it falls back below 38.2 can the market enter a state of shock. For now, we need to wait and see what happens next. Faced with this kind of strange detailed trend, it is not a top situation. If the contract is not easy to make, just wait patiently and rest assured on the spot.

That’s all for today. I wish you all good luck with your investment. I am a confused Pixiu K, and I will continue to do so. See you tomorrow.