What are the chances of Germany winning World War II?

Germany's chances of winning World War II are slim-in fact, Germany and its rivals are not an order of magnitude at all: Germany is only a medium-sized power with a population of10 million, but its rivals include continental powers such as the United States and the Soviet Union. 1940, the population of Germany was about 70 million, the annual output of steel was 21500,000 tons, and the power generation was 63 billion kwh. In the same period, the data of the United States was 65.438+0.32 billion, 60.7 million tons and 65.438+0.78 billion kWh. You should know that the United States only joined World War II after the Pearl Harbor incident of 654.38+0.9410.02.7.

In other words, the industrial capacity of the United States in peacetime is much higher than that of Germany in wartime, so once the American war machine starts at full speed, it has the war potential to completely crush Germany; At the same time, although the Soviet Union still lags behind Germany in technology, it also has a population of 65.438+0.7 billion, a steel output of 65.438+0.83 million tons and a power generation of 48 billion kWh. Although Germany had conquered and controlled the whole western Europe at this time, it was only slightly ahead of the Soviet Union in steel production and power generation, but the latter had labor resources that Germany could not reach at all.

Since then, it has taken Germany four years to increase its weapons production by 200%. However, during the same period, the military scale of the United States increased by 19 times. By 1944, the arms output of the United States is already 2.5 times that of Germany and 6.7 times that of Japan, and the combined arms output of Germany and Japan is less than a fraction of that of the United States. At the same time, the Soviet Union also caught up and increased its weapons production to 90% of Germany's. When the Soviet-German War entered a stalemate, Germany suddenly found itself in the Wang Yang Sea of the Soviet Union.

When World War II broke out, the German-speaking population in Germany and occupied Austria, Sudetenland, Alsace and Lorraine was about 80 million. During the same period, the population of the Soviet Union was about 65.438+0.7 billion, more than twice that of Germany. The population lost by the Soviet Union in the war plus the population occupied by Germany is almost equal to the total population of Germany. If Germany faces such a big loss, it will die directly. However, the Soviet Union has lost so many people that it can fully mobilize hundreds of millions of people in the non-occupied areas, which means that only the population in the non-occupied areas of the Soviet Union is larger than the total population of Germany.

Although the Germans were like nobody's business at the beginning of the war, they later felt that Soviet soldiers seemed endless. Germany has just defeated a Soviet military adviser, and before it can catch its breath, it will fight with ten Soviet military advisers. During the war, as many as13.6 million Soviet soldiers died (including those who died in prison camps), but the number of Soviet soldiers remained at around10.00000 during the war. When the Soviet army was engaged in naval warfare tactics on the front line, the rear area of the Soviet army was making use of sufficient labor force to continuously produce food, clothing, medicines, weapons and other military supplies and send them to the front line.

During the war, the Soviet Union produced 6,543,802,000 rifles and automatic rifles, 95,400 light and heavy machine guns, 834,000 artillery pieces (including 348,000 mortars), 654.38+008,000 tanks and self-propelled artillery pieces, 654.38+058,265,438 aircraft and In contrast, the total number of tanks manufactured by Germans during the war was more than 20,000, only about one-fifth of that of the Soviet Union. Although the industrial technology of the Soviet Union is not as good as that of Germany until now, the sheer scale has brought endless troubles to Germany.

When the Germans crossed the Smolensk-Kiev line, although the Soviet army collapsed in front of the Germans, the Germans were already weak in logistics because of the long front, and more and more non-combatants: infantry and auxiliary forces began to fall behind because of lack of supplies and poor traffic conditions; At first, the armored forces can break through eastward by themselves, and then they need to stop to rest and maintain. From June of 194 1 year to the end of June of the following year, the Germans lost 940,000 officers and men, 3,000 tanks, 654.38 million cars and 2,500 planes on the Eastern Front. This is equivalent to 1/3 of the total German forces during the war.

Germany also conducted research on nuclear weapons during World War II. The main raw materials for making atomic bombs are uranium, heavy water and graphite. In fact, Germany does not lack these raw materials. In fact, Germany accumulated rich experience in uranium ore processing and isotope separation at that time. However, until the end of the war, Germany still failed to build an atomic bomb. This is because large-scale projects such as nuclear weapons require a lot of manpower, material resources and financial resources. Germany's industrial production potential is not as good as that of the United States, and Hitler's anti-Semitic policy forced Jewish scientists like Einstein to leave.

In fact, Germany's nuclear weapons development plan faces the bottleneck of both talents and funds. At that time, Germany put the development of rocket weapons in the first place from the actual needs of the war. During the period of 1937- 1940, the Germans spent 550 million marks on the development of large rockets, while the funds for the "uranium program" were only 100 billion marks. It is hard enough to lack talents and funds, and people often go to the base to sabotage. The scientific spy team sent by the United States, code-named "Ye", destroyed all the industrial facilities in Germany that might be used to make atomic bombs.

Germany, which is congenitally deficient in manpower, troops and financial resources, is doomed to be difficult to defeat a country with a continental mass like the United States and the Soviet Union. Even before the United States and the Soviet Union entered the war, Germany might not be completely sure of winning Britain-although Britain had begun to decline at this time, it was not until after World War II that the British Empire officially disintegrated. At this time, Britain still had colonies all over the world, which means that Britain can mobilize far more war resources than Germany. Besides, Britain is not alone.

Although Germany conquered the whole of western Europe, these areas needed to be digested, and Britain fostered governments in exile and low-resistance organizations against Germany. Although the government in exile and low-resistance organizations have limited strength, they can also play a certain role in containing Germany. The Soviet Union and the United States went to war one after another, and it was only a matter of time before Germany was defeated-with Germany's limited national strength, it was necessary to single out the three giants of the United States, the Soviet Union and Britain. As for Japan and Italy, the two axis countries, it is impossible to count on them.

The Japanese were involved in the battlefield in China and opened up the Pacific battlefield against the United States without authorization, so they had already taken care of themselves. As for Italy's performance in World War II, it is almost a joke. If the Axis countries really want to meet in one place, then 1942 should be the best time: if Japan moves westward after occupying Southeast Asia this year-sweeping the Indian Ocean from the sea and attacking India on land; In order to compete for Ukrainian oil fields and strengthen its power in North Africa, it is possible for the Germans to link their respective control areas.

Once Germany and Japan join hands successfully in the Middle East, China and the Soviet Union, two allies with land power and human resources, will be isolated from the two peripheral maritime power and economic power, which will make the human resources and economic resources of the allies unable to cooperate with each other. However, this is only the wishful design of Germany and Japan. In fact, at that time, Germany and Japan had reached the limit of their respective expansion: Japan could not resist China and the United States but still had the spare capacity to expand in the direction of the Indian Ocean, and Germany could not attack Ukraine and North Africa at the same time.