How to evaluate reasonable but unscientific chicken soup?

There is such a widely circulated chicken soup for the soul:

How much do you know about these two lists?

The first list:, Wang, Bi Yuan, Lin Zhaotang, Wang Yunjin, Liu Zizhuang, Chen Ling, Liu Fuyao,. The second batch of names: Li Yu, Hong Sheng, Gu, Jin Shengtan, Huang Zongxi, Wu, Pu Songling, Hong Xiuquan and Yuan Shikai. Which list do you know more people?

The answer is revealed: the former are all imperial examination champions in the Qing Dynasty; The latter were all outstanding scholars at that time.

When I first watched this broadcast, I found it quite reasonable, with sufficient arguments and strong arguments. This is really a good medicine to comfort the college entrance examination children today: even if you don't do well in the college entrance examination, it doesn't mean that your life is over. Look at the people on this list. The latter has failed, but now it has been passed down through the ages. We will always miss him. Although the former was the top scholar in those days, who knows them now? Therefore, success has nothing to do with education! Go to the exam with peace of mind, and you can have a bright future if you don't get it!

Then I felt something was wrong. After meditation, I wrote a third list:

1. Ouyang Xiu avoids suspicion of Ceng Gong, otherwise Su Shi is the champion;

2. Ceng Gong, the eight masters of the Tang and Song Dynasties, was the champion;

3. Wen Tianxiang is the champion;

4. Wang Wei is the champion;

5. Liu Gongquan is the champion;

6. Guo Ziyi is the champion;

7. He pretends to be the champion;

8. The opening song of Romance of the Three Kingdoms, Yang Shen, who wrote the lyrics of the twenty-first history, was the three great talents of the Ming Dynasty and also the champion;

9. Zhang is a famous child prodigy. Gu Yu was afraid of his youth and pride and deliberately suppressed it for several years. Even so, he was a scholar in Jiajing twenty-six years.

10. His successor, Shen Shixing, is also a top scholar.

From this example, I can briefly talk about some reasons why I don't like success and chicken soup:

First of all, survivor bias

Ten examples in the third list are death data. They can't speak. I'm telling you, you see, I'm also the top scholar, and I'll be told through the ages. This is the survivor bias.

They won't tell you the whole truth. They always generalize and only adopt the data that is beneficial to them, thus concluding the conclusions they want you to get.

Second, deliberately fuzzy causal logic.

Success hides the facts and simplifies the logic, leaving only a simple causal link:

A, the champion in the exam-no one knows;

B, failed in the exam-passed down through the ages;

C, even if you fail, it will last forever.

This idea is really harmful. Especially if this year's college entrance examination children see this, what will happen if they don't have enough reading and rational judgment? He tells you that the college entrance examination has nothing to do with success at all: the second list, not all failed, is still passed down through the ages. The first one is the champion, but it is unknown.

For example, it's not biting your ear or rape that makes you a champion. Tai Sen became a champion because he has enough strength and skills, and he trains hard day after day. If it hadn't been for rape, he would have been more successful.

You can't succeed by taking drugs alone. The success of the god of wealth is because he has enough talent and scriptwriting skills, and also because he reads books and keeps practicing writing. He will only be more successful if he doesn't take drugs.

Similarly, Huang Zongxi and Pu Songling have been passed down through the ages because of their brilliant talents. If they win the first prize, it will only be the help of their life, and it will become more famous all over the world and spread through the ages. Just like Zhang, it is the icing on the cake.

When we latecomers look at history, we often make the mistake of taking the cause as the cause. As long as they are successful, they can learn everything, whether it suits them or not, and no matter how much this factor has to do with their success, sometimes it even backfires, but many times these factors are not as obvious as rape and drug abuse.

Third, simple causal line and one-dimensional value judgment.

The implicit conclusion of this list is that the only measure of success is its popularity among the people. And many things in this world are caused by many reasons. But chicken soup only lists one cause and effect.

In the first list, only Bi Yuan and Fu Yijian were listed as examples.

Bi Yuan: The study of epigraphy and geography in primary schools in Shi Jing is pervasive. He continued Sima Guang's book and became a mirror to continue capital management. Liang Qichao spoke highly of this, saying: "When the sword is completed, all families can abolish it."

Fu Yijian: He is knowledgeable, proficient in classical literature and history, and good at poetry and prose. Scholars call him Mr. Xing Yan. He is a good minister and lover who devoted his life. According to historical records, Fu Yijian was promoted by Shunzhi to the post of Minister of War. Everyone agreed that the choice was correct, the employment was timely, the court was harmonious and the world was at peace.

For example, in the second list, Li Yu and Pu Songling are widely circulated because of their literary works. Besides those who are interested in historical research, who else will notice Bi Yuan's "Continuing the History as a Mirror"?

Just because you haven't heard other people's names doesn't mean they are not good, it only means that your current thinking, pattern and academic level are still too far away from them.

Moreover, this example simply links success with being admitted to the top scholar, and most of them have left their names. For example, Pu Songling was embarrassed before his death. If it weren't for Hong Shangxiu's lack of food, how could he be desperate to rebel? This ignores the behind-the-scenes stories of all the living people and all the factors that make them famous. It simply equates being admitted to or not being admitted to the No.1 scholar with staying in the history books, and then arrogantly equates staying in the history books with success. In fact, people who failed in the exam were embarrassed in front of life and just left their names. How do you know that champions who didn't leave their names are not happy, but simply measure their success by leaving their names in history?

Similarly, there are several childish stories that are often used in our childhood writing:

For example:

1. When Washington was young, he cut down his father's two cherry trees. Later, he took the initiative to admit his mistake and was forgiven by his father.

Edison did an experiment on the train. The train suddenly tilted and had an accident. The conductor punched him, and his eardrum broke, so Edison could no longer hear.

3. Einstein's primary school math is not good, and he gets one point in every exam. Later, he studied hard and became the greatest physicist.

Such stories can be told all the time. The first story teaches us to be honest and trustworthy, which is a necessary quality for great men. If you want to be as great as Washington, you must bravely admit your mistakes. The second story tells us that success is not always smooth sailing. Edison is really poor and strong, and he is really our role model! The third Einstein story comforted us that even if we don't study well now, we can still make a difference and become great scientists in the future!

However, these are not the whole story.

Even some stories don't exist, such as the first Washington and the Cherry Tree. Later, its biographer admitted that this story was invented to highlight the excellent quality of Washington because there were too few historical materials, which is very similar to the biographies of emperors that are common in our history books now. Liu bang is his mother, having intercourse with the dragon, pregnant and giving birth to his great-grandfather. Or some emperors were just born, and the room was full of red light.

As for the second story, according to Edison himself, the real version is just the opposite:

"One day, I got on the train late, holding a big bundle of newspapers in my hand, and barely grabbed the handle of the car that had started, but I was weak and gradually slipped down. The conductor hurriedly reached out to pull, accidentally grabbed my ear and pulled me up. At that time, my ears were buzzing and my life was saved, but my ears were deaf. "

In other words, the conductor is not a bad person, but a savior. As for the later spread (because the car caught fire, he was ordered to take all the test equipment out of the car), it was true, but it happened in 1862. He became deaf two years ago. In addition, Edison suffered from severe scarlet fever when he was 8 years old. I can't blame the conductor for my poor ears since I had a high fever.

It is often said that Edison went to a nearby primary school when he was 8 years old, but he couldn't hear the teacher clearly and his understanding ability was poor, so some people laughed at him and finally dropped out of school to study with his mother. This is the same as the third story about Einstein's low grades as a child, which is used to inspire us. But that's only because people around him, even himself, didn't notice that his ears couldn't hear clearly-not that he had a bad brain.