The government has never said anything about lowering house prices. How can we expect house prices not to rise?

Beijing is the only place where national policies are not implemented at a discount. The rest of the places have either delayed issuing detailed rules or issued some detailed rules that are inconsistent with Article 5 of the State. Therefore, some experts say that "government orders cannot leave Zhongnanhai" now. Although China's "National Five Articles" hope to curb housing prices, a careful review of similar measures in the past and a look at the national conditions can lead to the conclusion that housing prices will not come down. The reason is: 1) Up to now, the criticized "land finance" has not been officially criticized by the government. No criticism means that it will not change. In addition, many local governments have financial debts, and the central government is unable to solve them one by one. If we change the land finance again, where can we get great help to repay the debt, and where can we get the proceeds instead of selling land? Foreign countries do not rely on land finance. In fact, we can learn from them, but our performance evaluation index is much higher than theirs, so learning foreign methods is not enough to deal with the evaluation index. 2) Land is a non-renewable resource, and the scarcity of land determines that the land price will not fall. Recently, the media revealed that the government took measures to "suppress" housing prices, but at the same time raised land prices, which can explain the problem. 3) The last government promised to build tens of millions of affordable housing units, and there were not enough low-cost housing to adjust the market. Public rental housing has just started, and the supply scale is far from meeting the demand. 5) Although the CPC Central Committee has promised to double the per capita income by 2020, if prices are not controlled, they will double or slightly double, and house prices will not stay at the same level for a long time. 6) The law of China's price changes is basically that it is impossible to fall if it goes up. The prices of gasoline, water, electricity, gas, stamps, taxi fares, the income of civil servants and employees of monopoly enterprises, and administrative fees will not go down as long as the quality of goods or products with excess capacity will not be affected because of seasonal changes in the weather. 7) China's investment channels are limited, bank deposits and bonds are obviously devalued, and the rules of stocks, funds, foreign exchange, futures and insurance are unclear, which leads to considerable black-box operation. There are also acts of cajoling and soliciting orders in individual projects, which have low credibility and high risks. Therefore, investing in real estate is still the investment method that people rely on. 8) the purchase restriction is across the board, regardless of the size of the house, the distance from the city center, and the area owned by the family. The purchase restriction is simply based on the number of sets, and the rich goods are artificially restricted into scarce goods. 9) The "official property disclosure system" has been delayed, which hinders the release of more houses through anti-corruption measures and will definitely push up housing prices. 10) delayed the processing of small property rights houses, and many small property rights houses could not be officially listed and the house prices could not be diluted. 1 1) The development of real estate involves many industries. If the development of real estate is curbed, it will inevitably curb building materials, decoration, plumbing appliances, bank loans, freight logistics, furniture, department stores, home appliances and home appliance installation, elevators, property, security, greening, bottom business and other related industries. China officialdom relies on GDP to show its achievements, so naturally it will not easily make decisive decisions on real estate that is easy to GDP. 12) The government has never indicated that it will lower the house price. They all talk about "stabilizing house prices", or curbing the skyrocketing trend, or improving the data of real estate. Even though a governor in Guangdong vowed many years ago that "the government has plenty of ways to reduce housing prices" (to this effect), it can't actually do it. The five restrictions on the purchase of houses in China or the profit restrictions on the sale of houses in some places that can be made now are all temporary shows that violate the laws of the market. 13) At present, the central government lacks the authority and effectiveness of decision-making, and many problems are not handled well, such as reducing the power of officials, building an anti-corrosion system, implementing an official property disclosure system, cutting down the three public consumption, putting an end to government financial violations (auditing has problems every year), worsening environmental air pollution, increasingly serious food safety problems, and coal mine safety has never improved. Performance appraisal has spawned a large number of illegal administrations, and the gap between the government and the people has been huge. Monopoly of state-owned enterprises is still a serious monopoly. Each of the above items is difficult to support the reduction of housing prices, and it will not determine a regression standard. Therefore, if we hope that the government will take effective measures to reduce housing prices to a "reasonable" level, it is difficult to determine this level and it is simply unrealistic. Looking at the effects of various measures to curb housing prices and advanced foreign experience, if you want to curb housing prices at a reasonable level, the best way is to 1) allocate 30 square meters of tax-free housing purchase indicators to each resident (the government does not need to invest in indicators). Regardless of the government and the people, if they buy a house that exceeds the tax exemption index, they will be taxed according to the amount exceeding the standard, such as 20% of the part exceeding the standard; More than 50 square meters 40%; If it exceeds 100 square meter, 80% will be levied (legislation is required specifically). Specifically: a family of three, the tax exemption index is 90 square meters. If they own a house of 1.20 square meters, and the house exceeds the standard of 30 square meters, the income tax on house sales will be paid at 20%. If this 120 square meter is purchased by one person, it is 90 square meters over the standard, and the house will be sold at 40% tax. 2) But for Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing megacities, there should be other flexible measures to cooperate: specifically, the houses that exceed the standard near the urban area should be taxed normally in the above way, and the houses far away from the urban area should be taxed or even exempted according to the distance. For example, the taxes in the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing are normal, and the taxes can be appropriately reduced in the Sixth Ring Road outside the Fifth Ring Road, but not taxed outside the Sixth Ring Road. This separate treatment can divert the population to satellite cities outside the urban area. 3) One more thing, all measures to curb housing prices are aimed at changing the phenomenon of real estate speculation. In order not to mistake the groups that need improvement, the standard of large-scale collection should be relaxed. For example, a family of three has two houses of 40 square meters and 60 square meters respectively, and the total area has exceeded 10 square meters. When selling a house, you should pay the prescribed taxes. In order to improve the housing conditions, they sold two sets and bought a house of 140 square meters. According to the area of 140 square meters, it exceeds the standard by 50 square meters, but the large apartment of 140 square meters is not an upside-down house type. Therefore, in order to encourage proper improvement, if there is only one house and it exceeds 140 square meters, the tax on the part exceeding the standard should be appropriately reduced, and there are villas. The above measures not only give everyone the same tax-free treatment fairly, but you can also buy more suites at will if you like. However, different proportions of income tax can inhibit the motivation of real estate speculation. If there are already more than one suite, owning more than one suite will not bring considerable profits because of the role of tax to curb profits. On the other hand, the more you hold, the less you gain, so you won't have the enthusiasm to hold or buy more, and the situation of real estate speculation will be improved. Rich people can buy more sets at will, and they can improve what they want, and they can also operate houses that maintain and increase their value. In such an environment where there is no purchase restriction, real estate developers will not shrink their business in large quantities, and related industries will not weaken their development because of the contraction of real estate, and there will be no major fluctuations in employment. Unlimited purchase is also in line with the laws of market economy, and it is difficult for outsiders to make an international fuss about our purchase restriction. 4) Of course, even if everyone has a tax exemption indicator, it does not mean that everyone can buy a house. If you are in financial difficulties, you should still pin your hopes on the government's public rental housing or affordable housing. It is the responsibility of the government to help the poor. Therefore, the government must insist on building more public rental housing and affordable housing. Public rental housing and affordable housing can change the current strategy of centralized construction. Legislation stipulates that the construction of urban real estate must bear a certain proportion of public rental housing or affordable housing, which is purchased by the government and distributed to vulnerable groups after completion. In this way, the government does not need to specially demarcate the land, nor bother to engage in development, and it also reduces the chances of corruption through projects. More importantly, public rental housing and affordable housing will no longer be built far away from urban areas, thus reducing the travel costs of applicants and effectively solving the housing problems of vulnerable groups. 5) Another effective measure is to finally solve the problem of small property houses. At present, small property houses cannot be built, sold, collected, punished or demolished, and a large number of small property houses cannot be put on the market, which has artificially aggravated the shortage of housing. In this case, we might as well cut the gordian knot and admit the legal status of the built small property houses. As long as we are willing to pay a certain tax after five years of use, we can be allowed to go public. In this way, after the listing of small property houses, the supply of housing and the choice opportunities of the people increased, and the price naturally came down. 6) Implementing the "official property publicity system" as soon as possible, forcing corrupt officials to release a lot of illegally acquired property and returning those properties to the fair market, which not only cracked down on corruption, but also made the real estate market develop healthily. The above six methods are not expensive and the operation is not complicated. Whether it can be adopted depends on the determination of those in power. If they think this prevents them from using their property to continue to make profits, it is naturally difficult to get their support. I hope that the new decision-making team can seriously consider and truly solve the housing price problem for the people from the interests of the broad masses. When the people's major livelihood issues are solved, the motivation to build the Chinese dream will continue.