How did the "summer curse" come from?

Is summer always a romantic season? The movie said yes. In this season, men and women often meet and fall in love, such as "That Summer, Silent Sea" directed by Kitano Takeshi and "What Tea to Drink in Summer" starring Sammi Cheng and Richie Jen.

This summer, you may be lucky enough to escape from this furnace-like city early and go diving on an island in Hawaii or Malaysia. In addition to all kinds of new fish and corals, you also met a group of white fish, some of whom may come from investment banks, fund companies and other financial institutions. You had a good time drinking beer together. You think this is really a perfect summer.

However, for another thing in this world-financial market, it is not perfect or romantic, and it will be plagued by the "summer curse" as always.

The Financial Times explained that the so-called "summer curse" is because in the summer months, transactions are often extremely light and executives go on vacation. If something goes wrong, the market may be completely out of control. Considering that so many executives of financial institutions are on vacation at the seaside, it's like an air captain suddenly appearing at an altitude of 10,000 meters to tell jokes and give gifts to passengers. Then who's flying the plane, the stewardess? )

This is also the case. In this summer, in addition to the bleak stock market, this situation has also occurred constantly. For a time, the bank's "money shortage" lending rate soared, and the stock market appeared "Oolong Finger" incident.

Yes, in summer, besides fluttering long skirts and charming bikinis, there are more troubles in financial markets.

In the summer of 20 12, the European debt crisis continued to spread, leaving the EU at a loss. In the summer of 20 1 1, the United States suffered a crisis of default on its national debt, and S&P downgraded its national debt rating for the first time. In the summer of 2009, it was even more difficult. With the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the financial tsunami is getting higher and higher. Furthermore, in the summer of 1997, the Asian financial turmoil swept through Thailand and the Thai baht depreciated. Soon, the storm swept through Malaysia, Singapore, Japan and South Korea. Some Asian economic powers have entered recession, and the political situation in some countries has even begun to be chaotic.

Economists have long found that high temperature in summer is also bad for the stock market. For example, scholars in Taiwan Province Province use the daily stock market and weather data of Taiwan Province Province from1997 to 2003 to study the influence of temperature on stock market profit. The results show that 29℃ is the critical value of the influence of temperature on stock market returns. If the temperature is higher than 29℃, the income will drop sharply.

So how does summer affect financial markets? The entry "Weather" in the New palgrave Dictionary: Money and Finance has this description: "Weather is regarded as a good exogenous variable ... weather is certainly useful for evaluating the information processing ability of financial markets." Economists find that psychological factors such as people's emotions and feelings play an important role in decision-making. The weather factor is an "emotional proxy variable" in financial investment decision-making, and emotion is the real reason to link the weather with the return on income.

Economists Howard and Hoffman believe that under high temperature, people may become hysterical or extremely indifferent. Cunningham, another economist, also pointed out that in cold or overheated weather, people become unwilling to help others. Aggressiveness will lead to more risk-taking behavior, while indifference means unwillingness to take risks.

It is these extreme emotions that eventually lead to the disorder of financial markets, which is also the most important reason for the emergence of the "summer curse".