How does the National Health and Family Planning Commission respond to rumors of an avalanche of population decline in China?

A few people in society are worried about China's population avalanche and the decline of Chinese civilization. Their concern for the country and the people is commendable. However, if you do some careful analysis, you will find that these people's remarks lack factual basis and are a bit alarmist. the taste. In fact, it is impossible for China’s population to collapse.

A few people use horizontally compressed United Nations low-scenario forecast results to reflect the "inverted V-shaped reversal" of the population. In fact, this is a kind of visual misleading. The same picture of China's population change trend will look like a cliff-like or avalanche-like decline as long as it is horizontally compressed to a certain extent.

If you look at countries in the world where population has turned to negative growth, their negative population growth curves and positive growth curves are not strictly symmetrical, and because average life expectancy continues to increase, the negative growth curve is usually flatter than the positive growth curve. Therefore, worries about a cliff or avalanche decline in population are unfounded.

From a data point of view, the low plan believes that China’s population will experience negative growth in 2022. From 2022 to 2100, China's population will be in negative growth. The average annual decline during the entire period of negative growth was 10.08 million. The largest decline was in 2062, when the decline was 13.47 million. At this time, China's total population was 1.076 billion. For a country with a population of 1.076 billion, the decline was 13.47 million, accounting for only 1.2% of the total population. If you say this is an avalanche, no one may believe it. During the entire negative growth period from 2022 to 2100, the proportion of declining population size did not exceed 1.6.

Compared with the positive growth from 1950 to 2021, the rate of decline during the negative growth period is even gentler. The average annual growth during the entire positive growth period was 12.09 million, which was 2.01 million more than the average negative growth rate. The year with the largest growth was 1969, with a growth of 21.57 million and a growth rate of 2.8, which was much higher than the maximum decline of 1.6 during the negative growth period. Therefore, it is a joke to talk about China’s population avalanche.