Is there a future for Musk to release Tesla in 2024 to completely transform hydrogen fuel cell vehicles?

1 year In April, Musk announced that in 2024, Tesla will fully turn to hydrogen-powered vehicles. A stone has stirred up a thousand waves, and domestic media have interpreted it one after another. Do hydrogen cars really have a future?

This is a fool's cell. On April 2, Musk himself deleted it.

On the technical route of electrification and hydrogen energy, it is obvious that electrification is the mainstream, and hydrogen energy can only be a supplementary route. At present, electrification accounts for 100% (of which pure electricity accounts for more than 70% and plug-in hybrid power accounts for nearly 30%), and hydrogen energy vehicles are almost ignored, not even a percentage point. In 2025, there will be no 3 percentage points for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

Even Toyota and Honda, the strongest companies in Japan, only sold more than 5,000 hydrogen-powered cars in 13. In 2022, the sales volume of new energy electric vehicles in China is expected to be close to 5 million vehicles a year, and electrification of hydrogen is not an order of magnitude.

Then why is it so difficult to promote cleaner, environmentally friendly and completely zero-carbon hydrogen-fueled vehicles?

Insufficient security. The explosive power of hydrogen fuel cell is four times that of TNT nitroglycerin yellow explosive, which is quite dangerous in underground garages, airports, ports, docks, bridges, tunnels and other places, and the safety cost is extremely high.

Energy utilization efficiency is not high. There is basically no hydrogen on the earth, which requires human beings to consume electricity to prepare. Hydrogen energy is a secondary energy source, and the cost of hydrogen production is very high. Not if it's not a special scene. The raw material preparation of hydrogen energy is mainly a by-product of chemical hydrogen production. If all the hydrogen in the world is used by China, the raw material of hydrogen is more scarce than lithium batteries, which is less than the industry demand of110.

The cost of catalyst is very high. Hydrogen energy needs catalyst platinum, which is far scarcer than cobalt and nickel raw materials of lithium batteries.

The cost of producing hydrogen, storing hydrogen and transporting hydrogen is extremely high. The cost of building a hydrogen refueling station is very high. At present, many areas in China only have hydrogen energy planning, but the construction cost of hydrogen refueling stations is high and it is difficult to land. Hydrogen refueling station has always been a demonstration project and image project of government subsidies to burn money, which is not available in many areas.

At present, hydrogen energy can only be used in special fields such as trucks, but it is difficult to popularize it in the field of cars, and the demonstration project has not been launched on a large scale.