Will it be more difficult for young people to find jobs after delaying retirement?

Although everyone is complaining about delaying retirement, delaying retirement will not make it harder for young people to find jobs.

Let's talk about why delaying retirement won't make it harder for young people to find jobs. The purpose of delaying retirement is only one: to solve the problem of pension gap. Delayed retirement can solve the pension gap from two aspects:

1。 The more people work, the more people pay pensions.

2。 The conclusion is that delaying retirement will not squeeze the employment of young people, but the employment situation of young people in the future is not optimistic. Generally speaking, China's labor force is decreasing. Surprise or not? After being a workforce for so many years, we are finally entering a new era. This downward trend is the same whether retirement is postponed or not. The decline of delayed retirement is slow, and the decline of non-delayed retirement is faster. Anyway, it didn't run away.

Assuming that the delayed retirement scheme will be implemented gradually in 2025 and completed in 2045, the retirement age will eventually be raised to 65. Blue means delayed retirement, orange means no delayed retirement. It can be seen that, in any case, the total working population will decrease from 2023 and will never go back. In 20021year, the total labor force population was 925 million. If retirement is not delayed, the labor force will be reduced to 757 million in 2040, with a decrease of 18. 16%. The decline of labor force in this range is very serious, and all aspects of society will be affected, and the first one is the pension gap. Well, considering the delayed retirement, the labor force population will be reduced to 823 million by 2040, with a decrease of 1 1.03%, which is still not small. At the same time, don't forget that the speed of urbanization in our country is slowing down, and the urbanization rate has soared from 36.22% in 2000 to 6 1.60% in 2020. At the same time, the medium-term urbanization rate of our country is 70%-75%, and the space is getting smaller and smaller. What's more, another way to improve the urbanization rate is to wait for the natural disappearance of the rural population (don't scold me, I'm just stating the facts).

Therefore, on the one hand, the working population itself is decreasing, on the other hand, the transfer of the working population from rural areas to cities is weakening, so even if we consider delaying retirement, the degree of employment involution faced by young people in the future is getting smaller and smaller. On the other hand, the age structure of the working population is also changing.

Changes in the age structure of the working population (2000-2040) divide the working population into three groups according to their age: under 35 (green), 36-50 (orange) and 565,438+0 (blue). In the case of delayed retirement, we can see that the proportion of young people (green) is getting smaller and smaller, while the proportion of old people (blue) is getting smaller and smaller. 202 1, per 100 working population, there are 40 young people, 30 middle-aged people and 30 elderly people. By 2040, there will be 30 young people, 35 middle-aged people and 35 elderly people in the working population of 100. Can you imagine that in 2040, your child just graduated to work and entered a company with 100 employees, 35 middle-aged colleagues and 35 elderly colleagues, but less than 30 employees under the age of 35 are similar to your child.

By then, this age structure will become a common phenomenon, including most companies in first-tier cities. Under this age structure, young people are very popular, because young people have a small family burden, strong work energy and higher output efficiency, and young people are scarce. By then, young people will also become less involved. But then again, the reduction of the total labor force, the slow transfer and the decrease of young people are all favorable places for young people to find employment in the future, but the employment situation of young people at that time may not be optimistic. Why? Because young people are the main force of market consumption.

If there are fewer young people, the consumption power of the whole society will decline, the market will shrink, and the employment and salary that can be provided will decline. At the same time, there are fewer young people, and there are fewer new children. I think you know how much human cubs spend. This part of the market is shrinking, and its impact on the consumer market is quite negative.