What do you think of the US stock market blowing up again?

March 8, Buffett: I lived to be 89 years old. I've only seen the American stock market crash once.

March 9, Buffett: I lived to be 89 years old. I've only seen the US stock market melt twice.

12 March Buffett: I lived to be 89 years old and only watched the US stock market melt three times.

March 16, Buffett: I am too young.

March 2009 65438+ Buffett: I am so cruel. ...

This is just a joke. Although we are used to seeing the US stock market melt in just a few weeks, this melting is really unusual. It shows that there is a problem with the fuse economy, and one fuse after another shows that this problem is still very, very serious. US stocks rose, and there are 10,000 reasons to support the rise. For example, the American stock market system is perfect, the survival of the fittest is concentrated, the best companies in the world are concentrated, the growth is good, the valuation is reasonable, and the economy is prosperous. But there was an avalanche, and I found everything so fragile. For example, Boeing crashed, orders were cancelled, and inventory was overstocked. The epidemic led to a further decline in demand, and a wave of stock price declines hit the original quarter. Star Tesla, oil prices plummeted, the epidemic affected demand, and a wave of falling stock prices hit the original one-third. There are no finished eggs under the nest.

The epidemic has changed the global economic trend. The five fuses are symbols of the financial crisis, which can almost announce the arrival of the economic crisis. Under the expectation of economic downturn, the profit expectations of all companies have to be adjusted. For companies with low original valuation, even if they are in the middle, the stock price is still very expensive, because profits are declining and even losses are expected. Magic is very realistic.

American shale oil accounts for a large proportion of gdp. Shale oil companies develop their debts and rely on high oil prices to support their ability to repay their debts and interests. The plunge in oil prices makes it impossible to borrow new debts, and old debts are also at risk of being unable to repay. If shale oil enterprises go bankrupt on a large scale, it will lead to the crisis of financial institutions, the risks will be transmitted layer by layer, and the market will be teetering.

Even though the American stock market has fallen by a third, there is still no sign of bottoming out. Many analysts think it will fall further to 14000- 16000. Of course, decline will not happen overnight. It may be in the form of fuse, and it is more likely to be a downward oscillation mode of one step and two steps. Controlling the epidemic in an all-round way and the oil price bottoming out to the shale oil break-even line will be the prerequisite for US stocks to rise again. Short-term bearish, the risk is far greater than the opportunity, be careful with the bottom, and be careful with flying knives.