Will gasoline vehicles really stop selling or even be eliminated around 2030?

The biggest problem in 2030 is that charging can't be solved. It can be said that it is impossible to eliminate gasoline vehicles in 2030, and it is difficult to stop selling them. The biggest problem is that charging still cannot be solved.

At present, no matter the convenience of installing charging piles or the carrying capacity of the whole power grid, there is no indication that it can be solved within 9 years. The most important way to popularize trams is to surround cities from rural areas. Generally, rural users with no commercial purpose rarely need long-distance travelers across cities and provinces to drive, and the single trip distance is short and the trip interval is long.

It can be seen that there is no long-distance demand, and it is basically just a short-distance tool. People close to cities and counties can buy an entry-level electric car with a battery life of 200km; If there is little travel demand or basically no long-distance demand, you can buy a low-power electric car with a battery life of 300km; If you need more travel, you can buy a hybrid car, and short-distance travel is basically solved by the pure endurance of 100km.

Combined with the "ultra-slow charging" of rural household electricity, such as the 2KW MINI EV, it can be charged 10 km per hour, and it can be charged as needed. Even if it is charged from 0- 100% in 30 hours according to the cruising range of 300 kilometers, it can fully meet the demand for rural vehicles.

Third, from stopping R&D and sales to stopping on the road, at least 15, many people don't understand the difference between stopping R&D, stopping sales and stopping on the road. In fact, the time span of Theory of Three Represents is at least 15.

First of all, stopping research and development means the beginning of elimination. At present, the time when domestic and foreign car companies announce to stop developing a new generation of fuel vehicles is generally between 2025 and 2030. The research and development cycle of fuel vehicles is usually three to four years, which means that there will still be "possible" new cars on the market between 2028 and 2034.

At present, there are at least two or three brands of mature traditional car companies, with nearly 100 models above 10. At least two or three redesigned or brand-new models are listed every year, and the nodes listed are usually called me or MI. After 2030, this rhythm will be greatly slowed down. If the research and development of new energy vehicles can't keep up, or even stop, the risk of losing market share is extremely high for a car company.

Secondly, stopping selling means the countdown to elimination. The response to the suspension of sales is similar to the delisting of models. Before the old model EOP, the manufacturer usually reserved spare parts for 3 to 10 years, and then dismantled the old production line and reformed it to pave the way for the new model. According to the conventional estimation, the sales suspension time should be around 203 1 year. So what may happen at this node in 2030 is that fuel vehicles will stop selling.

Finally, compulsory parking on the road means formal elimination. Personally, I estimate that it will take at least 5 to 10 years from the cessation of sales around 2030 to the complete cessation of sales of fuel vehicles, and some relatively backward areas may last longer.

Of course, it depends on the game between national determination and public opinion. During this period, there may be a depreciation of used fuel vehicles and an appreciation of spare parts. At this stage, it's really time to put a tombstone on the fuel truck. Jesus can't stay.