Paul samuelson's Character Evaluation

Susan Hockfield, president of MIT, said that Samuelson "changed everything he touched".

"In the long run, we will all die." June 65438+February 65438+March 2009, paul samuelson, the greatest Keynesian of the 20th century, quietly left us. His thoughts and actions have many intersections with Keynes, and they are not only reflected in the theory of state intervention. When Keynes declared that "the thoughts of economists and political thinkers, whether correct or not, are stronger than generally believed", in order to influence young people, he said: "If I can write economics textbooks for this country, I don't care who drafted the laws of a country." This has become a well-known slogan and a footnote in his brilliant life. "I am a grandstand seat on the sports field, and I can sit on it and observe the history of basic economics for almost a century."

He claimed to study economics, which was a coincidence that a blind cat met a dead mouse. He thinks he is "lucky" all his life-"I am always in the right place at the right time." When he was in his sixties, he realized: "All these things caused by good luck should be understood in the context of fundamental trends in the history of economics."

According to the date of birth, he was born in1965438+May1May. However, he always thought that his real date of birth was1932+1the morning of October 2, at the University of Chicago. "At 8 o'clock in the morning, when I first walked into the lecture hall of the University of Chicago, I was reborn. The theme of the lecture was Malthus' theory-the population will not multiply like rabbits until the density exceeds the minimum living standard of the population per acre, and then the increasing death rate will balance with the birth rate. They are so simple and easy to understand some different differential equations. I wonder if I have missed any mysterious complexity. "

At that time, Samuelson of the University of Chicago came to the research center of old and new classical microeconomics because he was close to home and school, and he was only 16 years old. In his view, 1932 is a great opportunity to be an economist. Because at that time, the field of political economy was waiting for the arrival of new methods, new paradigms, new experts and new problems. "Science is a parasite. The more patients there are, the more progress will be made in physiology and pathology, and the treatment will come from pathology. 1932 was also the trough of the great depression, and new seedlings grew in the rotten soil, which we call macroeconomics today. "

Perhaps more important than the result of luck is that economics is just suitable for his beneficial reality. He was born for academic research. At that time, the subject had just entered a mathematical stage in theory and statistics. As a precocious young man, "I have always been familiar with logical operation and IQ test games to solve puzzles." Therefore, if economics is my ideal subject, I can also be said to be the ideal economic researcher. Therefore, like Zweig, he reminded young people, "Never underestimate the extreme importance of finding a job that suits you early in your career. This can turn potential underachievers into happy soldiers. "

To some extent, he really wants to thank Hitler. It is precisely because of the latter that he was able to catch up with the wave of Harvard's economic revival during the period from 1935 to 1940, which was driven by economists like joseph schumpete, Wassily Leontief, Gottfried Haberler and American Keynesian alvin hansen, thus avoiding the disaster of war. All Harvard graduate students in the same period have this new Harvard talent. Richard musgrave, Wolfgang Stolper, Abram bergson, Joe Bain, Lloyd Metzler, Richard Goodwin,

Rob terry Finn, james tobin, robert solow, ...-all contemporaries of Samuelson-became dazzling stars in the pre-school world economy of 1950-2000. "Indeed, Harvard made us. However, as I have written many times before, we also created Harvard. "

At Harvard, he began to become a Keynesian. From 65438 to 0936, john maynard keynes, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers of the British Cabinet, published his most influential book, General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. His theory holds that the modern market economy will also encounter difficulties. To solve the difficulties, what is needed is a strong promotion of government spending or tax reduction. In addition, loose monetary policy is needed to repair the economy. Many economics students will never be interested in the view of19th century that the private market can solve the unemployment problem without government intervention. Many economists in the United States are interested in Keynesian theory, and Samuelson and his teacher Hansen are constantly promoting Keynesianism and further supplementing it. Samuelson believes that Keynesianism came into being under the historical background of the economic crisis in the capitalist world, which started with the American Wall Street stock market crash in April 1929 and basically stopped in June 1933. Keynes's theory is of great value to the development of capitalism. Therefore, he decided to study Keynesianism from the problems of investment and employment that needed to be solved urgently at that time. Gradually, he began to become the main representative of American Keynesianism. For the rest of my life.

1940 10 in June, he began to come to MIT, where he spent all his academic career. He soon began to be recognized by his peers. Among them are members of American Academy of Arts, National Academy of Sciences, American Philosophy Society and British Academy of Sciences. And all kinds of titles have come. However, the birth of three children made his financial conditions begin to be stretched. So he decided to write an economics textbook. When he sets his own writing standards-this book should not only attract students, but also have mature and systematic quality. He also hoped that through this book, he could focus on the viewpoint of Keynesian revolution, which was still unpopular at that time. He said that he worked very hard to write this textbook. He hired people to add charts, color charts and humorous paragraphs.

The great influence of this textbook called Economics can hardly be underestimated. Economics has made generations of students understand john maynard keynes's thoughts. It has been translated into many languages and published, and it "has made great achievements in giving the world a common economic language." Students are attracted by its energetic prose style and its relevance to their daily life. Since then, a large number of textbook authors have begun to imitate this writing style. And "Economics" also makes its author step into the ranks of the rich.

His textbook Economics teaches students how to think about economics. His economic research achievement, Fundamentals of Economic Analysis, has taught professional economists how to study trade. Between these two books, Samuelson redefined modern economics. When economists "sit down and take out a piece of paper and start to calculate or analyze something, you have to say that no one is more important than Samuelson in providing them with the tools and ideas they use." Samuelson's colleague at MIT, Robert M. Solo, said.

1970, when he won the Nobel Prize in Economics, the Royal Swedish Institute praised him for "doing more than any contemporary economist in improving the research level of economic theory" and he was called "the last encyclopedic economist". He changed almost every aspect of academic thought in the economic field, from Marx's labor value theory to the randomness of stock price fluctuation. Although social scientists had adopted mathematics before him, it was under his influence that mathematics became such an important mainstream tool in economic thinking. Through him, simple mathematical prediction gained strong theoretical prediction ability. And "if you study and analyze the achievements of modern economists, you will find that a large proportion of standard research methods can be traced back to Samuelson's life research," Solo said.

In addition to students and economists, the beneficiaries of Samuelson's views include the President of the United States, world leaders, members of Congress and Federal Reserve officials. He has served as an adviser to the US Treasury, the Budget Office and the President's Advisory Council. His most influential student is John Kennedy. 1960 after the election, he once gave students a 40-minute class alone. After his election, although he was the first choice for the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers of the Kennedy Administration, he refused the nomination. He refused any government post in principle. He said that he didn't want to put himself in such a situation that "he can't say and write what he believes".

He once told a joke between himself and Friedman: "If the devil exchanged your soul with a wonderful theory, would you make the deal?" "I won't do that," Friedman said. "If it is an inequality theory, I will consider it." Behind the joke, the dispute between him and Friedman's economic views became a public case in the 20th century American economic history. He admitted, "We disagree on almost every issue, but we are still friends."

Unlike the liberal Samuelson, the conservative Friedman opposed the government's intervention in the economy in most areas except national defense and law. He believes that giving freedom to individuals, private enterprises and competition can do better than the government. But in 2008, Keynesianism and its powerful defender Samuelson formally staged a wonderful "Return of the King". At the beginning of the recession, western governments no longer stood idly by, but actively participated in and even led the rescue plan.

He once wrote: "What is unusual is not the degree to which the government controls economic activities, but the degree to which it does not control economic activities." In an interview at the age of 93 in 2008, he claimed that the current economic crisis had proved the correctness of his own economic views-and this also falsified the fallacy of his long-time rival Friedman's views. "Today, we have seen how wrong Milton thinks that the market can adjust its views," he said. "... now, everyone understands the opposite view, and the view that it can't be solved without government intervention is correct. Keynes's viewpoint, fiscal policy and deficit expenditure have played an important guiding role in market economy and have been re-recognized. I hope Friedman is still alive, so that he can witness how extremism in his mind led to his failure. "

But he never regarded Keynesianism as a religion. After the history of the second half of the 20th century, even he said, "His optimism that the government has the ability to create miracles has faded.". "If the government becomes too big, too much national income will flow through its hands, and the government will lose efficiency and become slow in meeting people's needs, so it will start to threaten people's freedom." He said. However, he still firmly believes that no serious political or economic thinker will reject the core view of Keynesianism, that is, a democratic government that is kind to others can succeed in avoiding economic problems that the free market cannot achieve. "The government and the market, either side acting alone, can not do without the help of the other side." He finally admitted it. As for its purpose, he wrote in My Philosophy of Life: Policy Credo and Working Style, "Although the empirical analysis of the real world guides and restricts my every action as an economist, I have never really forgotten my concern about the moral standards of results. My rule is very simple, that is, to support people at a disadvantage and hate inequality (other conditions are the same). "

In June 5438+February 65438+March 2009, the great economist died at his home in Massachusetts, USA, at the age of 94. "As always, when I do something that brings me pure pleasure, my income far exceeds my efforts." At the age of sixty-nine, he has already commented on his life like this.

China: Samuelson wrote an article on June 5438+065438+ 10, 2008, which was published in China-Europe Business Review on June 5438+ 10, 2009 after his death. This article was regarded as his "China will" by some critics. According to the article, by 2050, more than 10 billion people in China will create the world's highest annual real gross national product. He suggested that China should aim at pursuing a "moderate middle course" economy in the future. The middle line excludes the unregulated laissez-faire system that liberals such as milton friedman and friedrich hayek deeply love.

He pointed out that pure capitalism cannot achieve self-regulation. It will always lead to the aggravation of inequality and the instability of macroeconomic fluctuations. The middle line requires democratic supervision of the market and enterprises. Although rational supervision can never be perfect, it is a better goal than others.

Moreover, he pointed out to American readers that China's future success might be welcomed by American patriots. Economy is definitely not a zero-sum game. The increase of Swiss wealth is not necessarily at the expense of the decrease of American wealth.