What does it mean when North Korea shells South Korea?

North Korea intends to attack the mountain and Zhenhu Peninsula has hidden concerns

Analysts say it is difficult for South Korea to make a substantive response

After the Yeonpyeong Island shelling incident, international issues experts believe , although the shelling caused casualties and posed severe challenges to the situation between North and South Korea, North Korea's move is intended to attract the attention of the international community and prevent large-scale conflicts between North and South Korea.

Purpose: North Korea uses artillery shells in exchange for bargaining chips

South Korean scholar Lee Sung-hyun believes that North Korea launched the Yeonpyeong Island shelling incident to increase its bargaining chips in future dialogues or six-party talks.

Li Chengxian analyzed that judging from the current attitude of the South Korean government, President Lee Myung-bak does not want to escalate the situation, but the South Korean military has taken a tougher stance. This slightly different stance within South Korea is very similar to the "Cheonan" incident in March. At that time, the military wanted to fight back hard, but the Lee Myung-bak government solved the problem through diplomatic channels.

Comparing the "Cheonan" incident and the Yeonpyeong Island shelling incident shows that North Korea's actions have escalated. After all, the "Cheonan" is full of Korean soldiers, and the targets of this shelling of Yeonpyeong Island include civilians. However, Lee Seong-hyun emphasized that because Yeonpyeong Island has been at the forefront of the 60-year conflict between North and South Korea, the local people are wary and prepared for North Korean artillery fire. Therefore, North Korea's artillery attack on the island is just an excuse to use the method of knocking on the mountain to shock the tiger, to weaken the momentum of the South Korean government and military, and to gain more bargaining chips for future talks or the possible six-party talks.

Prediction: The shelling will not cause a serious accident

Professor Jin Canrong, an international affairs expert at Renmin University of China, believes that the shelling of Yanping Island will not cause a serious accident. North Korea, South Korea and the United States Neither of them wants the situation on the peninsula to deteriorate beyond control. But if the shelling fails to make the United States or the international community pay attention to North Korea's demands, the situation on the peninsula will be risky.

Jin Canrong believes that there is a certain connection between the shelling incident and North Korea's disclosure of 2,000 centrifuges, both of which are reasons why North Korea hopes to attract outside attention. North Korea hopes to attract attention and start talks with the United States and other countries to request economic and other assistance. Therefore, North Korea is not willing to let the shelling incident get out of hand. From a U.S. perspective, the U.S. special envoy for North Korea visited Northeast Asia in the hope of obtaining more information and contacting all parties to put pressure on North Korea through diplomatic means rather than using coercive force. In addition, the United States is strapped for economic problems, and its diplomatic focus is still on issues such as Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan, so the United States does not have the ability to attack North Korea. South Korea also does not want things to get worse. South Korea's economy has not yet recovered. Seoul is very close to the dividing line between North and South Korea and is under the firepower of North Korea. The fragility of South Korea's national security and economic strength prevents South Korea from making a substantive response to North Korea.

However, Jin Canrong emphasized that judging from North Korea’s recent series of actions, if the United States or the international community cannot respond to North Korea and some of North Korea’s wishes are not met, North Korea’s behavior may escalate, and the regional situation in the future will still remain tense. There will be certain risks.

Impact: The shelling is detrimental to the resumption of the Six-Party Talks

Yu Yingli, an expert on North and South Korea issues at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, believes that the North Korean shelling incident on Yanping Island will have a negative impact on the resumption of the Six-Party Talks on the North Korean nuclear issue. The road takes a heavy toll.

Yu Yingli said that before this shelling incident, there had been many exchanges of fire and shelling incidents between North and South Korea in the past. Especially in the western waters and the northern boundary where the shelling occurred, frictions between North and South Korea often occurred, and the South Korean Cheonan ship also sank in this sea area. But North Korea has never fired or shelled South Korea with such serious consequences in the past.

Yu Yingli believes that since the consequences of the Yanping Island shelling incident are relatively serious, the direction of the situation remains to be seen. However, it is unlikely that this incident will escalate into a formal conflict between North and South Korea. Next, we need to see how North Korea and South Korea negotiate and resolve this incident. Negotiations on the North Korean nuclear issue will inevitably be affected. Yu Yingli said, "After the Cheonan incident, South Korea demanded that North Korea denuclearize and apologize for the Cheonan incident. These conditions have not yet been met, and another shelling incident occurred. The restart of the six-party talks seems to be even more distant."