In the Black Iron Age, how will real estate develop in 2022?

Three major trends have initially emerged.

At the beginning of the Year of the Tiger, Yu Liang, chairman of the board of directors of Vanke, has sounded the alarm for the real estate industry.

This time, Yu Liang defined the current era of the real estate industry as the "Black Iron Age" and proposed that 2022 will be the year when Vanke "breaks the boat and fights with all odds": either die or live, there is no in-between state.

Behind these remarks is the cold wave that has lasted for nearly a year in the real estate industry. Today, real estate has been shrouded in a pessimistic and fragile mood, and the stock and bond markets are in turmoil. It is undeniable that the real estate market in 2022 has undergone qualitative changes.

However, amid the pessimistic rhetoric, policy enthusiasm has been blowing frequently towards real estate recently, and credit has also ushered in a long-lost window period. Under the alternation of "cold" and "hot", where will real estate go in 2022?

Real estate companies are gathering together to "rush" and offer deeper discounts than before

Since the beginning of this year, personal housing loan disbursements have accelerated, interest rates have been lowered, and there are obvious signs of recovery. At the same time, the financing environment for real estate companies has improved.

According to the latest data released by the central bank, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan in January, a record high for a single month, and credit received a "good start." Among them, medium and long-term loans increased by 2.1 trillion yuan.

CITIC Securities pointed out that with the recovery of infrastructure and the relaxation of housing-related loans, the credit window is expected to gradually open. However, this window period is short. He believes that the first quarter will be the high point of credit supply throughout the year. The current bond market has entered a bull-tail market, and we need to be wary of adjustments after the data picks up at the end of the first quarter.

In the view of Lu Wenxi, chief market analyst of Shanghai Zhongyuan Property Consulting Co., Ltd., the current rescue policy is warm and the market sentiment is also warm. During this time window, the price can be exchanged for volume to "recover blood" "It's doable. "It is expected that real estate companies will take active marketing measures in the future."

In fact, many real estate companies have already started to "grab sales". On February 14, Jinke Shaanxi’s official Weibo announced that Xi’an Jinke’s Bocuitianchen project is snapping up special discounted parking space qualifications for 0 yuan; Xianyang Jinke’s Jimei Jiayue project’s daily supply starts at 13.3 yuan to grab a good spot; Ankang Jinke’s Jimei County project’s down payment Starting from 60,000 yuan, you will get 10 square meters for free when buying a house. On the same day, the three northeastern cities of Longfor jointly launched a discount event, with project discounts ranging from 9.3% to 9.9% off.

According to incomplete statistics, the list of discount promotions currently includes Longfor, Sunac, Vanke, CIFI, Poly, Gemdale, Rongsheng Development (002146), Country Garden, R&F, China Resources, There are more than 10 large real estate companies including China Shipping, Agile, Yuexiu, Jinke, etc.

For example, Jinmao Beijing International Community’s New Year’s special housing offers a limited-time discount of RMB 20,000; Agile Skyline 715 has a discount of nearly 50%; China Overseas Vision’s “fixed price” special housing offers, if old If the owner recommends a new customer to close the transaction, he or she will receive 5 years of property fees. The new customer will also receive benefits such as a certain reduction in the total house payment (excluding preferential housing).

Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of Shell Research Institute, told

that real estate companies are currently under great pressure to repay debts, and it is expected that real estate companies will have about 960.3 billion yuan in maturing debt in 2022. Real estate companies have a high demand for sales repayments. After the housing credit environment improves, it will be conducive to the entry of demand for home purchases into the market. Real estate companies with greater debt repayment pressure will adopt promotional strategies and discounts will be greater than in previous years.

The volume of second-hand housing transactions is expected to quadruple

Although developers have resorted to real money promotion methods, consumers have not yet shown a strong willingness to purchase.

In previous years, the Spring Festival holiday was the peak period for home buyers, but this year’s performance was very sluggish. According to monitoring data from the Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, during the 2022 Spring Festival holiday, 959 new homes were sold in 15 key cities, a record low in the past five years and a decrease of 42.1% year-on-year. During the same period, China Index monitoring data also showed that the transaction area of ??newly built commercial residential buildings in key monitored cities dropped by 51% compared with last year’s Spring Festival.

As for the reason for this phenomenon, IPG China Chief Economist Bai Wenxi explained that it is because the current market situation is very sluggish, consumers have insufficient confidence, and they are worried about problems such as unfinished products and substandard quality. , so under the circumstances of strong downward pressure on house prices, consumers’ transaction psychology will tilt towards quasi-existing houses, existing houses and second-hand houses. "The proportion of second-hand housing transactions is expected to increase significantly this year."

At the same time, Hu Jinghui, chief economist of Jinghui Think Tank, believes that another tipping point for second-hand housing transactions is coming, and that is real estate tax The start of the expedition. This year, real estate tax will be implemented in some domestic cities, and it will most likely be levied on owners who hold multiple properties or large areas. The consequences will undoubtedly increase the number of properties for sale and rental.

Hu Jinghui emphasized that under the general principle of not increasing the overall tax burden, while the tax on the holding link is increased, the tax on the transaction link should be reduced accordingly. "As housing supply increases, customers increase, and taxes are reduced during the transaction process, the transaction volume of second-hand houses will increase significantly."

Taking Beijing as an example, he pointed out that the average annual transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing in recent years has been 160,000-170,000. Compared with the stock pool of 10 million units, the turnover rate is only 1.6-1.7, while the annual turnover rate of stock houses in the United States is around 7. In other words, once the real estate tax is levied, the transaction volume of second-hand houses is likely to increase. twice.

From the data point of view, the current transaction volume of second-hand houses has shown a rebound trend. Data from the Shell Research Institute shows that the transaction volume of second-hand houses in popular areas of Beijing has increased month by month since November 2021, and the corresponding number of listings has also increased.

Statistical data from the Centaline Real Estate Research Center shows that the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing in October, November and December last year were 9,340 units, 11,851 units and 14,265 units respectively. Since January this year, Beijing’s second-hand housing transaction volume has maintained restorative growth. According to Securities Daily, from January 1 to January 23, the average daily transaction volume of Beijing Lianjia’s second-hand houses increased by approximately 5% compared with the daily average level in December last year.

The wave of asset transfers will continue

Although market credit has been loosened, not all companies can seize this window period. For thunderstorm real estate companies, financing channels have been blocked, and consumers and investors have lost confidence in them. Even during the policy window period, it is difficult to change their situation, and they still have to rely more on transferring assets to "recover blood."

As Pan Jun, the president of Fantasia, said in a book of ten thousand words: "The group now has no function of "recovering blood" and no function of financing. It can only rely on selling some assets."

At the beginning of 2022, many real estate companies have also joined the army of selling their assets to supplement cash flow. According to incomplete statistics, real estate companies such as Evergrande, Shimao, Zhongnan, Yuzhou, Agile, Fantasia, and Blu-ray Development (600466) have all transferred some of their assets.

“Lu Enterprises are currently unwilling to offer large discounts and promotions because the prices will be pushed very low now.” Lu Wenxi said that real estate companies are currently unwilling to release too many assets because the current market prices are very low. , but companies prefer to make money through the sales side, rather than heavily discounting promotional assets. But in another quarter to two quarters, companies will realize that there is really no way to "recover", and they will speed up the pace of selling off assets, and the wave of asset transfers will continue. At that time, the price can only be "at the mercy of others", and buyers have more say. It is expected that local urban investment companies, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises with abundant cash flow, such as Vanke and Longfor, will come to buy the bottom.

Although these peers with abundant funds are like killers waiting to be hunted, trying to take over profitable projects at a very high price, in Bai Wenxi's view, very cheap transfer assets are a big deal. The probability will not be realized, because if assets are disposed of on a large scale and at a large scale, companies with already high debt ratios and poor cash flow will go into general insolvency and direct bankruptcy, so the discounts for real estate companies' asset disposals will not be strong enough. would be too big. "General mortgage loans are at a 40-30% discount, and the transfer of assets is for money, so the discount will not be higher than the mortgage rate."

Nowadays, some real estate companies have made it clear that they will not sell assets at low prices. On the sixth day of the Lunar New Year, Xu Jiayin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Evergrande Group, held a mobilization meeting for the start of the 2022 New Year.

At the meeting, he bluntly stated that selling company assets at low prices would never be allowed. "We must pay attention to preventing loopholes in the asset disposal process. We cannot rely on selling assets at low prices to pay off debts. Otherwise, it will be difficult to pay off debts even if the assets are sold at low prices."

However, whether real estate companies are willing to admit it or not, the pressure to repay debt cannot be ignored. According to data from CRIC, the overseas debt financing maturities of 100 typical real estate companies in 2022 are mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, with the maturity scale in January reaching 62.7 billion yuan, the highest in the past two years; in addition, March and April , June and July are all small peaks in debt repayment for overseas debt financing.

The start of 2022 is more complicated than in previous years. Next, what awaits real estate companies will still be a bloody melee. Who can finally be invincible will test the judgment and decision-making power of the decision-makers.