Excuse me, who knows when the next census will be held?

Hunan Provincial Bureau of Statistics April 2004-15

In the new century, China has organized the fifth population survey and the second basic unit survey on the basis of summarizing the last round of regular population census. Despite their success, however, in the process of organization, the statistical department has encountered unimaginable difficulties and made great efforts, deeply feeling the responsibility and pressure of census work and the increasing difficulty in obtaining real and valid data. How to conduct regular population census in China is an important issue for management and statistics departments to study and think about.

I. What is a regular census system?

Census refers to a one-off, large-scale comprehensive statistical survey organized by a country or region. It collects, sorts out and provides statistical data reflecting national conditions and national strength by investigating social and economic phenomena in a certain period one by one. Census data is comprehensive, systematic, accurate and reliable, which is the basis for making national economic and social development plans, implementing scientific decision-making and conducting sampling surveys. Because the census needs to invest a lot of manpower, material resources and financial resources, it is impossible to do it every year, but only once every few years, that is, a regular census. The periodic census system has a history of hundreds of years in the world and has been adopted by most countries. China's regular census system was established in 1994, and the regular census items approved by the State Council include the census of population, industry, agriculture, tertiary industry and basic units. Among them, the census of population, tertiary industry, industry and agriculture is conducted once every 10 year, respectively in 0, 3, 5 and 7 years, and the census of basic units is conducted once every 5 years in 1 year and 6 years. During the ten years from 1990 to 1999, China successively organized and implemented the first census of tertiary industry, agriculture and basic units, the third industrial census and the fourth population census, and obtained important basic data for national economic and social development, which fully reflected the national conditions and national strength of China. Throughout every census, there are some unsatisfactory places, especially the two censuses organized in the new century are more prominent. As a basic statistical investigation method, population census has been proved to be scientific and reasonable after hundreds of years of practice. However, China's census system has encountered so many difficulties and obstacles that it can only be found from the specific national conditions of China and the periodic census system itself.

Second, the reasons that affect the smooth implementation of the regular census system

At present, China's economic system reform and opening to the outside world are developing in depth. There are many reasons for the above problems, both institutional and institutional, which can be summarized as follows.

1, the regular census system is not perfect. After the first round of regular census, we should make a comprehensive, in-depth and systematic summary of the regular census system. Although the country has done some useful work in this regard, it is still far from being in place, and some problems found in the last round of census have not been effectively solved. First, the census institutions are not perfect. The newly established national census organization is a general organization, which is only equivalent to a professional department. Its specifications are not high and its functions have not yet been finalized. Provincial census institutions, especially most city and county census institutions, have not been established, and the overall functions of census institutions have not been fully exerted. Second, there is a lack of overall planning and design. The design of the census plan is basically undertaken by the professional department of the National Bureau of Statistics. When designing the census plan, most professional divisions are based on their own needs, lack of proper communication, and are inconsistent in statistical standards and the use of directory databases, resulting in overlapping in scope, objects and indicators among census projects. It not only increases the workload of the census, but also greatly reduces the rationality and scientificity of the census system. Third, the arrangement of census items remains unchanged, and the merged ones have not been merged, and special investigations and temporary investigations have increased. Often this census has not been completed, and the next census will begin. For example, the end of 2002 is the key stage of the second basic unit census registration, and grassroots statistical units have to undertake heavy annual statistical reports, data development of the fifth population census, and sampling of 1% population. For another example, in 2002, while continuing to do a good job in the fifth population census and the second basic unit census, the grassroots statistical departments should also meet the preparatory work for the input-output survey and the tertiary industry census. Some government leaders have to undertake more than three census tasks during a term of office, and their attention naturally declines; The pressure of grass-roots units is self-evident. Grassroots statisticians with multiple jobs are in a state of fatigue all the year round, so they can't devote themselves to a census, which directly affects the efficiency of census work and the quality of data. Fourth, the means of investigation are single and the technical means are backward. At present, the census organized by our country is to distribute census forms, and a large number of census takers collect census data directly at home. There is almost no telephone survey system with data entry and voice recognition functions, which is almost blank in China. Census enumerators are mostly transferred from various departments and units, and their quality is uneven. With only a few days' training, it is difficult for them to get familiar with the theory and related knowledge of statistics in a short time and master the correct reporting methods and requirements.

2. Low degree of social cooperation. With the establishment and development of the socialist market economic system, the social environment faced by regular census is becoming increasingly complex. First, under the condition of market economy, people pay more attention to events or phenomena closely related to their own interests, and the propaganda work is not in place. The public, especially some respondents, have insufficient understanding of census, low awareness of cooperation and weak awareness of participation; The second is the negative effects of some management departments. Some departments mainly charge fees, with little management education, leaving people with the shadow that management is charging fees and investigation is auditing. For example, the management departments of individual business units involve industry and commerce, taxation, prices, public security, urban construction, sanitation, technical supervision, environmental protection, streets, etc. , but only pay attention to the self-employed units or "escrow by penalty", and pay insufficient attention to the difficulties encountered in their production and operation, such as project funds, rights protection and market information. , greatly reducing the self-employed people's understanding and trust in administrative management, and even resisting the investigation tasks deployed by the government.

The third is the interests of local departments. Due to the management system, some local governments and administrative departments are driven by various interest mechanisms. For the sake of local and self-interests, the administrative information they have can't be provided well (for example, grassroots cadres are afraid of assessment, and grassroots units are afraid of paying more related expenses, etc.). ), which also increases the difficulty of the census work.

It is difficult to raise funds for the census. According to China's current financial system, the funds for population census and large-scale investigation are shared by the central and local governments and included in the corresponding annual budget. The National Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a document for this purpose. However, the document only stipulates the principle of raising census funds, and there is no scientific quantitative standard and lack of operability for how much each place should bear. There are many difficulties in raising funds and great regional differences. City, county (district) level, especially in economically backward areas and poverty-stricken areas, can be described as miserable. For example, in the fifth census, economically developed provinces are 3-5 times higher than the most populous provinces in China, and the funds for the "five-year plan" in some areas have not yet been fully put in place; Another example is the second basic unit census. In some provinces, from the preparation in June to the census registration in February, there were 1/5 counties (districts) without start-up funds, and most cities and counties with start-up funds could not meet the needs. Due to insufficient census funds and inadequate census preparation, such as inadequate basic office conditions, equipment and communication, inadequate publicity, and especially inadequate training, the scope of the census that should have been expanded, the required census contents, and the necessary simulation operations could not be properly implemented, the contents that should be mastered, and the problems that should be solved could not be solved, resulting in many mistakes in filling in the census form and low quality, which greatly reduced the role of training in the census work. At present, the shortage of census funds has seriously affected the normal development of various census work and the working mood of statistical institutions at all levels, directly threatening and shaking the improvement and development of the regular census system.

Third, the development direction of the periodic census system

1, strengthen the census legislation. The census is an important survey of national conditions and national strength, and an important basis for the state to manage the economy and society.

At the beginning of the founding of the United States, the decennial census was determined, and then it was fixed in the form of law and given more perfect content, which has continued to this day. In order to speed up the legislative pace of China's periodic census system, we should make provisions in the form of law on the setting of census items, the determination of scope, the design of schemes, the financing of funds, the propaganda and mobilization, the organization and implementation, and the methods of rewards and punishments, so that all census activities are carried out within the legal scope and the overall census work will be brought into a legal, scientific and standardized track as soon as possible.

2. Establish and improve census institutions. Lightweight and efficient census institutions are an important guarantee for doing a good job in census work. An important problem exposed by China's regular census system is that there is no permanent working organization responsible for the overall planning and arrangement of various censuses. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a powerful census institution to take charge of the comprehensive census. National census institutions should improve their specifications and be responsible for the planning, design and implementation of all census plans. In view of the fact that a lot of census work is at the grassroots level. The specifications of census institutions in provinces, cities and counties can be defined as deputy departments, deputy departments and deputy departments, which implement civil servant management and exercise government management functions. For large-scale projects that cross regions or have a long construction period (such as the Three Gorges Project and Xiaolangdi of the Yellow River)

A census institution should be established. It is necessary to establish and improve census leading institutions and organizations throughout the country to ensure the efficient operation of census work.

3. Scientifically set up census items and reasonably determine the contents of the census. Census items are very important to the overall function of census.

Therefore, the setting and content arrangement of various census items should be scientific and reasonable. The first is to set up reasonable census items. Adjust and merge the existing census items, specifically: keep the census and agricultural census in 0 and 7 years respectively; The industrial census, the tertiary industry census, the basic unit census, and the future construction industry census and foreign economic census will all be included in the economic census, which will be conducted every four or nine years. In this way, the four census tasks in ten years can not only reduce the pressure and burden of governments at all levels and grassroots statistical departments, but also further enhance the comparability and applicability of census data. The second is to reasonably determine the content of the census. The rationality of the census content directly determines the effectiveness of the census work. To this end, when determining the content of the census, we must first conduct investigation and study to understand what kind of data or information the government, departments, the public and related data users hope to obtain through the census, and then identify these needs; Secondly, we should fully consider the acquisition method, difficulty and comparability of census data; Thirdly, we should pay attention to the support of census costs and the affordability of grassroots.

4. Establish and improve the directory database of statistical units. The reason why the census work in developed countries in the world can directly send questionnaires to enterprises, reduce the workload of enumerators, and achieve high efficiency and low cost in census is that they have a large storage capacity, wide coverage, unified standards and timely updates of statistical units, such as the SSEL in the United States and the French state-owned enterprise directory database. There are many management departments in grass-roots units in China, and there is a lack of cohesion between departments and the standards are not uniform. So far, there is no complete, standardized and comprehensive directory database reflecting social and economic activities. Therefore, we should step up the construction of the directory database of grass-roots units. The first is to set up a leadership coordination group. Because the establishment of the directory database is a complex systematic project involving many departments and units, the state should establish the directory database of grass-roots units with high standards, set up a coordination group to coordinate various functional departments, and make it clear that the statistical department is specifically responsible for the establishment of the directory database. The second is to formulate and use unified statistical standards. In accordance with international practice, we should formulate and improve China's statistical standards such as unit division and code, national economic industry classification standards and codes, occupational classification codes, and administrative division codes. Third, the functional departments of industry and commerce, establishment, taxation, technical supervision, etc. should provide administrative registration materials to the statistical department regularly and timely, and establish an administrative registration information exchange system. Fourth, the state should allocate special funds for the maintenance of the established directory database and do a good job in updating the directory database.

5. Modernization of census means. The modernization of census means is the key factor to improve work efficiency and reduce census workload, and more efforts should be made in this regard. In terms of survey methods, advanced survey methods, such as computer-aided telephone survey system (CATI), should be actively cited to increase the weight of online and email surveys. In data processing, the whole country should implement a unified data processing scheme, actively use advanced means such as photoelectric input, and at the same time, some excellent statistical analysis software (such as SAS, SPSS, etc.). ) should be suitable for the processing and analysis of census data; In terms of management means, it is necessary to increase the weight of magnetic media to realize the efficiency and safety of census data.

6, strengthen public opinion propaganda, enhance public participation awareness. Census is a huge social system project, and it is very important to gain the understanding and support from all walks of life, especially the respondents. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the publicity and mobilization of the census. First, the national census institutions and propaganda departments should formulate feasible propaganda opinions, and the propaganda departments should be included in the annual work plan. It is strictly forbidden for any unit to treat or charge related fees negatively for any reason. Second, in the propaganda content, focus on the importance and necessity of the census and its benefits to the country, units and individuals; The contents, methods and methods of the census; The legal nature of the respondents' cooperation with the census and how to cooperate with the relevant regulations and requirements of the census; The scope of use, management principles and confidentiality provisions of census institutions and census personnel for census data. Third, in form, we should make full use of radio, television, newspapers, slogans, Quyi performances and other forms. You can also send emails to respondents who have certain conditions, directly enter the survey users, and conduct extensive and in-depth publicity in various forms. It is necessary to make all sectors of society pay attention to and attach importance to the census through publicity; Make the respondents know and understand the census, enhance legal awareness, eliminate ideological concerns, and actively cooperate with the census work.

7, reasonable accounting census funds, to ensure implementation. Census funds are the basis of census work and the key to the success of census.

Therefore, census funds should be regarded as the key issue to improve China's cycle system. First, the census funds are guaranteed according to law. Second, the state can put forward a total budget according to the tasks and workload of each census, and clarify the basic projects and scope borne by governments at all levels. In the formulation of funding standards, we should fully consider the comprehensive economic strength, geographical situation, population, land area, number of units and other basic conditions in various places, reasonably determine the census funding standards in various places, issue them in the name of the government or the Ministry of Finance, and timely check the implementation of supervision funds to avoid the recurrence of the phenomenon that census institutions are heavily in debt when the census work is over and the census funds are far from in place. Third, on the basis of comprehensive consideration of census funds, the state gives necessary subsidies to key poverty-stricken areas throughout the country to ensure the most basic needs of census work in poverty-stricken areas. Fourth, census institutions should also give full play to their own advantages, actively undertake investigation projects or data processing entrusted by relevant departments or units, actively broaden financing channels, and ease the pressure on census funds.