Auto faction observation

It rained all night. In 2020, Xiaoyangchun, which was originally expected by the automobile industry, ran into an unprecedented virus epidemic.

With the outbreak of novel coronavirus epidemic, the original production and sales plans of car companies were all disrupted. Although the epidemic situation is far from over, considering the scale of the current automobile market in China, there is no doubt that its losses will far exceed the SARS epidemic situation in 2003.

In the face of the virus epidemic in 2020, the impact of the end of the 20 18 purchase tax concession and the switch of 20 19 countries, five countries and six countries is nothing. The small virus will shake the automobile industry, which will be the biggest in the history of China automobile market.

Facing this dinosaur-class "black swan", automobile enterprises are facing severe challenges-what impact will this incident have? How will China auto market go in 2020? There are still many problems. ...

The first question: How much will the car output drop?

The most obvious impact of the virus epidemic on the automobile market in China lies in the production level. Although the supply chain has not been interrupted, the start-up time of the main engine plant has been significantly extended.

At present, most car companies, including FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC-Volkswagen, BMW Brilliance, Changan Ford and Guangqi Honda, have decided to extend the resumption time to 10 day in February, which means that the car production of China car companies will be reduced by at least 10 day compared with previous years. The production bases in Wuhan are Shenlong Automobile and Dongfeng Honda, and their production resumption time is even more distant.

The delay in resuming work will further affect the output.

According to the prediction of relevant institutions, this epidemic may affect the reduction of automobile production in China by 6.5438+0.7 million. As we all know, in 20 19, the annual sales volume of China automobile market decreased by 8.2% year-on-year. Under the influence of the epidemic, automobile enterprises are forced to stop production collectively, which will directly affect the automobile production in China in 2020-according to relevant forecasts, the automobile production may decrease by 10% in the first quarter.

But if the scale is enlarged to the whole year of 2020, it may be less pessimistic. Since 2065438+2008, many car companies have adopted the strategy of "fixing production by sales". Take Shenlong Automobile at the center of the epidemic as an example. In the past few years, the company's three factories in Wuhan have been in a state of serious overcapacity. Last year, it was reported that one factory would be closed and the second factory would be sold.

It is not difficult to see that the short-term impact of the epidemic on the production level is not enough to cause a devastating blow to the automobile market in China. At the same time, if the epidemic situation is controlled before the middle of the year, the output can be supplemented in the next few months.

A more optimistic estimate is that the impact of the epidemic on the annual production and sales volume is not much different from the previous forecast of the China Automobile Association for the whole year of 2020, and the decline is still around 2%.

Question 2: Will spare parts enterprises become the hardest hit areas?

Due to the long industrial chain, the OEM has a stronger ability to cope with the crisis. In contrast, the epidemic has a greater impact on parts suppliers.

Bosch, the world's largest supplier of auto parts, warned that novel coronavirus may affect its global supply chain and there is a risk of breakage. In 20 19, Bosch's sales in the Asia-Pacific region reached 22.5 billion euros, of which more than 654.38 billion euros came from the China market. Bosch has about 800 employees in two factories in Wu Hanyou that produce steering system, HVAC and thermal management technology. Bosch's CEO is also not optimistic that if the epidemic continues, it may affect its global supply.

Compared with Bosch, Webster, also from Germany, was the first to be affected by the epidemic. China is Webster's largest single market in the world, accounting for one third of the global market. Wuhan factory is the largest factory in the world, which mainly produces automobile skylights, electric heaters and charging solutions.

Because he had contacted his family in Wuhan before going to Germany for training, an employee of Webasto infected novel coronavirus and went to Germany. At least seven employees of Webasto suffered from novel coronavirus (5 Germans and 2 China), and even its factory in Stockdorf, Germany, was temporarily closed due to the epidemic.

Valeo, another component supplier, has 65,438+0,900 employees in Wuhan * * *, and has built a car lamp factory, a front-end module factory and a research and development center in Valeo China. Valeo Wuhan Automobile Lamp Factory also has customers all over the country, including Shenlong Automobile, FAW-Volkswagen, Tianjin Toyota, Dongfeng Nissan, SAIC Volkswagen and Changan Automobile.

Compared with these multinational parts giants, small and medium-sized suppliers are more affected. Compared with multinational competitors, small and medium-sized parts enterprises have weak capital, low ability to cope with risks and no global system as support. Faced with the difficulty of returning to work and the obstruction of logistics, it is expected that a large wave of small and medium-sized parts enterprises will be on the verge of bankruptcy.

The auto parts industry is likely to usher in a wave of "survival of the fittest" under the pressure of the virus, but the large-scale fracture of the supply chain will not happen.

Question 3: What will happen to consumers' wishes?

As mentioned above, it is more important for consumers to decide the car sales in 2020.

There are two completely different views on the impact of novel coronavirus epidemic on consumers' wishes. One view is that when there is epidemic prevention risk in public transport, the rigid demand for private cars will be further released, and the sales volume of passenger cars is expected to show retaliatory growth after the epidemic ends; On the other hand, because China's economy is affected by the epidemic to a certain extent, most of its income will decline to a certain extent in the first half of 2020, and automobile consumption will be "inadequate".

Whether it is a new purchase or a redemption, consumers' demand for car purchase will not change fundamentally. Even if the purchase time is delayed because of the epidemic, the behavior of buying a car will eventually happen.

The above two views may be correct. As a result of mutual influence, the sales of new cars, especially the third-and fourth-tier markets and self-owned brand models below 80,000 yuan, are expected to be further stimulated; For redemption consumption, especially the consumption willingness of luxury brands, there will be a certain degree of inhibition. On the whole, 2020 may not be a year of sharp decline in automobile sales, but it may be a year in which the upward trend of luxury sectors weakens, independent brands launch counterattacks and their share rises.

Related to consumers, dealers, as the front line of automobile sales, are also under heavy pressure in the epidemic. On the one hand, the passenger flow in stores has dropped sharply, and it is difficult to deliver a large number of ordered vehicles; On the other hand, it is a huge fixed cost expenditure. As the saying goes, in order to reduce the operating pressure of dealers, many OEMs, including Volvo, have adjusted their policies and introduced supporting policies to help dealers tide over the difficulties.

Question 4: Will selling cars online become the mainstream?

In the face of this epidemic, some professional organizations and media analysts believe that online car sales will be developed, and on-site car viewing and online exhibition halls will become the mainstream of the automobile industry.

In fact, watching cars in the VR exhibition hall and selling cars in the e-commerce channel has long been a new trend of publicity for many years. Despite the explosive growth of fast-moving consumer goods such as food in e-commerce channels during the virus epidemic, it is optimistic if it is determined that the online marketing method of cars will become a trend and even replace the traditional model of 4S stores.

Cars, as a kind of expensive goods, need to go to the door, which is different from several packages of fresh meat and vegetables. Even when the epidemic continues, consumers can't choose to buy a car easily through the Internet. More importantly, even if you choose to buy a car through e-commerce, because of its special properties, the car still needs 4S stores for delivery and subsequent maintenance services, and online car sales are far from becoming the mainstream.

label

Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the first quarter of last year was not the peak season for car purchase. With the emergence of this epidemic, the weak sales in the automobile market will continue to increase. If the epidemic can be controlled in time, the impact on the whole year of 2020 will not be too great. However, due to the "delayed consumption" effect caused by the epidemic, most industry experts analyzed that automobile consumption is expected to return to normal level in the second quarter and may rebound.

Generally speaking, China's automobile industry is relatively mature and has certain anti-risk ability, and China's automobile industry will not be defeated by the virus. From a personal point of view, 2020 may become a farewell year for more brands.

A few years ago, the automobile market was in short supply, and even some brands that only played reverse engineering and had average quality could make a lot of money. Since 20 18, with the automobile market entering the stock stage, some tail car enterprises began to fall behind, which is the normal state of market competition. The virus epidemic may accelerate this process, and those car companies that lack originality and system research and development capabilities will quit faster.

From a certain point of view, the arrival of the epidemic may make every dark cloud in China automobile industry have a glimmer of light, and help the whole industry achieve high-quality transformation and upgrading.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.