7 ways to reach carbon neutrality in the power industry

At the end of 2021, the Planning and Development Department of the China Electricity Council released the "Power Industry Carbon Reduction Report", which proposed 7 paths for the implementation of carbon neutrality in the power industry:

The first is to build a diversified energy supply system and form a low-carbon dominated power supply pattern;

The second is to give full play to the role of the basic platform of the power grid, improve the ability to optimize resource allocation, and support some regions to reach the peak first;

The third is to vigorously improve the level of electrification and serve the carbon emission reduction of the whole society;

The fourth is to vigorously implement management innovation and promote the efficient and coordinated utilization of sources, grids and loads;

The fifth is to vigorously promote Technological innovation will lay a solid foundation for the carbon neutrality goal;

The sixth is to strengthen the awareness of power safety and prevent major risks to power safety;

The seventh is to improve and improve the market mechanism to adapt to the carbon New requirements for peak carbon neutrality.

Content summary

To achieve the goal of peak carbon neutrality, the power industry not only faces major opportunities for transformation and development, but also faces formidable challenges. Based on ensuring the safe supply of electricity and taking low-carbonization, electrification, and digitalization as the basic directions, the study focused on the carbon peak timing of the power industry, the power supply and grid structure, and the cost of power supply. By comprehensively analyzing the power balance, low-carbon power supply contribution rate, and considering the economics of large-scale development and technological progress, the study proposes to ensure that the power industry reaches a carbon peak before 2030 and strives to achieve a carbon peak in 2028, and gradually transitions to a stable and declining state. stage. On this basis, the implementation path for carbon peak and carbon neutrality is proposed: First, build a diversified energy supply system and form a low-carbon dominated power supply pattern; Second, give full play to the role of the basic platform of the power grid, improve the ability to optimize resource allocation, and support some The region is the first to reach the peak; The third is to vigorously improve the level of electrification and serve the carbon emission reduction of the whole society; The fourth is to vigorously implement management innovation to promote the efficient and coordinated utilization of sources, grids and loads; The fifth is to vigorously promote technological innovation to lay a solid foundation for the carbon neutral goal; The sixth is to strengthen the awareness of power safety and prevent major risks to power safety; the seventh is to improve and improve the market mechanism to adapt to the new requirements of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.

Content introduction

1. Development foundation

Clean and low-carbon transformation has achieved new results. As of the end of 2020, the country's non-fossil energy power generation installed capacity was 960 million kilowatts, accounting for 43.4% of the total installed capacity. The proportion of non-fossil energy consumption increased from 12.1% in 2015 to 15.3% in 2019, completing the "13th Five-Year Plan" goal one year ahead of schedule. As of the end of 2019, my country's carbon dioxide emission intensity per unit of GDP has been reduced by approximately 48% compared with 2005, achieving the 2020 carbon emission reduction target ahead of schedule.

Safe and efficient development has reached a new level. As of the end of 2020, 30 UHV projects of the "14th Interconnection and 16th Direct Line" have been completed and put into operation across the country, with 794,000 kilometers of transmission lines of 220 kV and above, and a transformation capacity of 4.53 billion kVA. In 2019, the equivalent availability factors of thermal power, hydropower, gas turbines and nuclear power units all reached over 90%, and the availability factors of major power transmission and transformation facilities such as transformers and overhead lines exceeded 99%.

Electric power technology innovation is changing with each passing day. Nuclear power, ultra-supercritical power generation, new energy power generation and other technologies have made positive progress. The 1100 kV Zhundong Wannan UHV DC project with the highest transmission voltage level and the longest distance in the world has been completed and put into operation. The world's first UHV multi-terminal hybrid DC project has been completed and put into operation. The Wudongde power station project to Guangdong and Guangxi was put into operation ahead of schedule.

The level of terminal energy electrification continues to improve. In 2019, my country's electric energy accounted for 26% of final energy consumption, which is 17% higher than the world average. From 2016 to 2019, the cumulative new electricity consumption replaced by electric energy was approximately 598.9 billion kilowatt-hours, contributing 38.5% to the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society.

The construction of market mechanism is actively promoted. The electricity market trading system has been initially established, and various trading methods and trading varieties are gradually enriched. The power generation industry took the lead in launching carbon trading. As of the end of August 2020, the cumulative transaction volume of the carbon trading pilot was approximately 406 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, with a transaction volume of approximately 9.28 billion yuan.

International cooperation has made positive progress. As of the end of 2019, the overseas investment amount of China's major power companies was US$5.79 billion. China's major power grid companies have built 10 transnational power transmission lines and 12 line corridors of 110 kV and above connecting neighboring countries. The concept of energy Internet has been widely recognized.

To achieve the goal of peak carbon neutrality, the power industry not only faces major opportunities for transformation and development, but also faces daunting challenges. Carbon dioxide emissions from developed economies such as the European Union have reached their peak, and there will be a transition period of 50 to 70 years from "carbon peak" to "carbon neutrality". my country's carbon dioxide emissions are huge, and it only takes 30 years to go from carbon peak to carbon neutrality, making the task even more arduous. Energy and power emission reduction is the main battlefield in my country. Energy combustion accounts for about 88% of all carbon dioxide emissions, and emissions from the power industry account for about 41%. The power industry must not only accelerate the development and utilization of clean energy and promote the industry's own carbon emission reduction, but also help the whole society upgrade its energy consumption patterns, support key industries such as steel, chemicals, and building materials to improve energy utilization efficiency, and meet the needs of the whole society to achieve a higher level of electrification. Require.

2. Research on peak carbon neutrality in the electric power industry

(1) Current status of carbon emissions in the electric power industry

The growth of carbon emissions has been effectively slowed down. Taking 2005 as the base year, the national non-fossil energy installed capacity and power generation increased by 19 and 16 percentage points respectively, and the coal consumption of thermal power supply dropped by 61.5 grams/kWh. The power industry reduced carbon dioxide emissions by more than 16 billion tons. Carbon emission intensity continues to decline. In 2019, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of thermal power generation nationwide were approximately 838 g/kWh, a 20% decrease from 2005; carbon dioxide emissions per unit of power generation were approximately 577 g/kWh, a 32.7% decrease from 2005. Electricity carbon emissions account for about 40% of society's total. In 2019, my country's total carbon dioxide emissions were approximately 10.2 billion tons. The power industry, transportation industry, construction and industrial carbon emissions accounted for 41%, 28% and 31% respectively. The total carbon dioxide emissions from thermal power generation were approximately 4.2 billion tons.

(2) Research on peak carbon neutrality in the electric power industry

my country’s electricity demand is still in a relatively long period of growth. The new pattern of dual-cycle development drives the continued growth of electricity consumption, the conversion of old and new driving forces, and the decline in the growth rate of traditional electricity consumption industries. High-tech and equipment manufacturing and modern service industries will become the main driving forces for electricity consumption growth. New urbanization will drive rigid growth in electricity demand. The development of energy transformation shows an obvious trend of electrification, and the potential for electric energy substitution is huge. Taking into account factors such as energy conservation awareness and energy efficiency improvements, it is estimated that my country's total social electricity consumption will be 9.5 trillion, 11.3 trillion, and 12.6 trillion kilowatt hours in 2025, 2030, and 2035 respectively. The average annual growth rates during the Fifth Five-Year Plan and the Sixteenth Five-Year Plan were 4.8%, 3.6%, and 2.2% respectively. It is estimated that my country's maximum load will be 1.63 billion, 2.01 billion, and 2.26 billion kilowatts in 2025, 2030, and 2035 respectively. The average annual growth rate during the "14th Five-Year Plan", "15th Five-Year Plan", and "16th Five-Year Plan" will be 5.1% respectively. , 4.3%, 2.4%.

The study sets up three scenarios with different development rhythms of new energy and nuclear power for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and medium- and long-term power development. Scenario 1 is that new energy accelerates development and carbon emissions in the power industry peak in 2030. The most economical investment. Scenario 2 is the accelerated development of nuclear power + new energy. The carbon emissions in the power industry will peak in 2028, and investment will be 0.6 trillion yuan higher than in scenario 1. Scenario 3 sees new energy develop by leaps and bounds, with the power industry’s carbon peak in 2025 and investment 1.6 trillion yuan higher than in Scenario 1. However, during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, it mainly relies on the maturity of electrochemical energy storage technology, which is uncertain. Comprehensive analysis, recommended scenario two, before 2030, strive to reach the peak of carbon in the power industry in 2028, with a peak scale of about 4.7 billion tons.

During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, in order to ensure the security of power supply, new coal power projects of a certain scale need to be added. The construction period of hydropower and nuclear power projects is long, generally taking about 5 years. The scale of new production during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is relatively certain. It is expected that by 2025, hydropower will reach 470 million kilowatts (including 80 million kilowatts of pumped hydropower), and nuclear power will reach 80 million kilowatts. . Taking into account the average annual addition of 70 million kilowatts of new energy, wind power will reach 400 million kilowatts and solar power will reach 500 million kilowatts by 2025.

Since the capacity of new energy to participate in power balance is only 10.15%, in order to ensure the security of power supply and meet the requirements of real-time power balance, 190 million kilowatts of coal power need to be added during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Taking into account the decommissioning situation, the installed coal power capacity will reach 1.25 billion kilowatts by 2025.

In the middle and late stages of the "15th Five-Year Plan", the power industry's carbon emissions peaked and gradually transitioned to a stage of stabilization and decline. During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, new energy sources will have an average annual increase of 120 million kilowatts, and nuclear power will have an average annual increase of 810 units. It is expected that coal power installed capacity will peak around 2030, and carbon emissions from the power industry will peak in 2028. During the "16th Five-Year Plan" period, electric vehicles were widely involved in system regulation to further support the development of larger-scale new energy. New energy sources are adding an average of 200 million kilowatts every year, and the pace of nuclear power development remains unchanged. The low-carbon contribution rates of clean energy power generation such as new energy, nuclear power, and hydropower are 58%, 20%, and 22% respectively. Carbon emissions in the power industry have entered a stage of stabilization and decline.

The realization of the carbon peak carbon neutrality goal will push up the cost of power generation. Taking into account large-scale development and technological progress, the construction costs of nuclear power, new energy and energy storage facilities are on an accelerated downward trend. However, since new energy sources are low-energy-density power sources, larger-scale new energy installations need to be built to meet power supply requirements, resulting in a significant increase in annual investment levels in power sources and energy storage facilities. According to estimates, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" During the "16th Five-Year Plan" period, the annual investment in power supply was 634 billion yuan, 736 billion yuan, and 830 billion yuan respectively. , 352.4 billion yuan). Compared with 2020, the cost of power generation will increase by 14.6% in 2025, 24.0% in 2030, and 46.6% in 2035.

Major technological innovation helps the power industry achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. Major breakthroughs have been made in carbon-neutral gases and liquid fuels, including carriers such as hydrogen, ammonia and hydrocarbons, which can store electricity for a long time or be used for power generation. They will replace thermal power units on a large scale, increase the system inertia, ensure the stable operation of large power grids, and increase power production. Entering the low-carbon and zero-carbon stage, supplemented by carbon capture and forestry carbon sinks, to achieve carbon neutrality in the power industry. Achieving carbon neutrality will take new power systems as the basic platform and rely on green and low-carbon cutting-edge technological innovations such as UHV transmission technology, smart grid technology, long-cycle new energy storage technology, hydrogen energy utilization technology, and carbon capture technology.* **Together we promote the achievement of goals.

3. Implementation Path

(1) Build a diversified energy supply system

Adhere to both centralized and distributed power generation, and vigorously increase the scale of wind power and photovoltaic power generation. Focusing on the major rivers in the southwest region, we will advance the construction of large-scale hydropower bases in the river basins in an orderly manner. Develop nuclear power in a safe and orderly manner, and develop gas power in a reasonable and appropriate manner. In accordance with the principle of “controlling increments and optimizing stocks”, we will give full play to the role of coal and electricity in underpinning the supply of coal and electricity, and appropriately arrange the scale of new coal and electricity additions. Develop biomass power generation according to local conditions and promote the development of distributed energy.

(2) Give full play to the role of the basic platform of the power grid

Optimize the construction of the main grid frame, add a number of inter-regional and inter-provincial transmission channels, build advanced intelligent distribution networks, and improve resource optimization Configuration capabilities. Support some regions to reach the peak first.

(3) Vigorously improve the level of electrification

Deeply implement electrification upgrades in the industrial sector, vigorously improve the electrification level in the transportation sector, actively promote the development of electrification in the construction sector, and accelerate the construction of rural electrification improvement projects.

(4) Promote the efficient coordinated utilization of sources, grids and loads

Take multiple measures to improve system regulation capabilities and improve the response level of the power demand side. Promote the integration of source, grid, load and storage and the complementary development of multiple energy sources, and promote the digital transformation and intelligent upgrade of the power system.

(5) Vigorously promote technological innovation

Promote the leapfrog development of new energy storage technologies such as pumped hydro energy storage, hydrogen storage, battery energy storage, solid-state batteries, lithium-sulfur batteries, and metal air . Promote the widespread application of low-carbon power generation technology and the iterative upgrade of smart grid technology, and increase forward-looking technological innovation for carbon reduction and decarbonization.

(6) Strengthen awareness of power safety

Strengthen the randomness and intermittency of new energy power generation to ensure the security of power supply, and the widespread access of power electronic equipment to the safe operation of large power grids. Identification of risks caused by uncertainties in technological innovation. Strengthen the construction of emergency support systems to prevent major risks to power safety.

(7) Improve and perfect the market mechanism

Actively leverage the low-cost carbon reduction role of the carbon market, accelerate the construction of a national unified power market, and continue to deepen the construction of the power market. Promote the coordinated development of the national carbon market and electricity market.

4. Safeguard Measures

Formulate an action plan for carbon peaking in the power industry, conduct research on major issues of carbon neutrality in the power industry, increase investment support for key technology research and development, and promote Form a scientific and reasonable electricity price mechanism, implement fiscal, taxation and financial investment policy guidance, and promote the implementation of the "double carbon" target power industry tasks.