Suggest collection! Reading the panorama of aluminum industry chain

Preface

Aluminum is a chemical element with the chemical symbol Al. The content of aluminum in the earth's crust is second only to oxygen and silicon, ranking third, and it is the most abundant metal element in the earth's crust.

aluminum is a silvery white light metal. Ductility and extensibility. Commodities are often made into rods, sheets, foils, powders, ribbons and filaments. Among the metal varieties, it is the second largest metal after steel.

aluminum is widely used. The development of three important industries, aviation, architecture and automobile, requires the unique properties of aluminum and its alloys, which is greatly beneficial to the production and application of this new metallic aluminum.

aluminum industrial chain is a process that bauxite is converted into alumina by Bayer process or sintering process, and then raw aluminum is produced by high temperature molten salt electrolysis process. After adding alloying elements to electrolytic aluminum, it is processed into aluminum profiles, plates and foils by extrusion and extrusion, which are widely used in real estate, automobiles, packaging, electric power and other fields.

the aluminum industrial chain has two characteristics: single raw material and single production process: bauxite is almost the only raw material for producing alumina (nepheline used in Achinsk alumina plant of Russian aluminum in the world), and alumina is the only raw material for producing electrolytic aluminum; More than 9% of alumina in the world is produced by Bayer process, that is, alkali process, and all primary aluminum is produced by molten salt electrolysis process.

data source: open source securities

upstream of aluminum industry chain

The upstream of aluminum industry chain is "bauxite-alumina-electrolytic aluminum", which produces raw materials for aluminum processing. The aluminum industrial chain has two characteristics: single raw materials and single production process. Bauxite is almost the only raw material for producing alumina, and alumina is the only raw material for producing electrolytic aluminum. More than 9% of alumina in the world is produced by Bayer process, that is, alkali process, and all primary aluminum is produced by molten salt electrolysis process.

Bauxite

Aluminum ore is a mineral aggregate containing alumina or hydrated alumina, which has economic utilization value and is the main raw material for producing alumina. In recent years, the domestic supply of bauxite has become increasingly embarrassing. Apart from the policies of environmental protection supervision, mine rectification and reform of mining right transfer system, the basic conditions of domestic mines are not ideal. At present, the proportion of self-mining in China is only 25%, while private mining and imported mining are 35% and 4% respectively.

The data shows that the global bauxite output in 219 was 3.7 billion tons, an increase of 13.15% compared with 3.27 billion tons in 218. In 219, China's bauxite production fell to 75 million tons, a decrease of about 4 million tons compared with 218.

Bauxite is concentrated, with Guinea, Australia, Vietnam, Brazil and Jamaica accounting for 72% of the world's reserves.

The basic reserves of bauxite in China account for only 3% of the world, but the annual output of bauxite accounts for 2% of the world.

in terms of regional distribution, bauxite in China is mainly distributed in Guangxi and Guizhou in the southwest and Henan and Shanxi in the middle.

alumina

China is the largest producer of alumina in the world. There are three main alumina production methods: Bayer process, alkaline lime sintering process and Bayer-sintering combined process. Usually, high-grade bauxite is produced by Bayer process, and medium-low grade bauxite is produced by combined process or sintering process. Among them, Bayer process has become the most important method in alumina production because of its simple process and low energy consumption, and its output accounts for about 9% of the global alumina production.

according to the data of the international aluminum association, the global alumina output totaled 134 million tons in 22 and 132 million tons in 219, up by 1.41% year-on-year.

with the continuous release of domestic alumina production capacity, the output increased rapidly, reaching the highest in 218, reaching 72.531 million tons, up 5.9% year-on-year. By 219, the domestic alumina output decreased slightly to 72.474 million tons, down 1% year-on-year, but it still maintained a high level of development. By 22, the cumulative output of alumina in China is 73.132 million tons, and it is expected to reach 78.382 million tons in 221.

electrolytic aluminum

electrolytic aluminum is aluminum obtained by electrolysis, which is mainly used to produce aluminum processing materials with different uses. The data shows that from 215 to 219, the consumption of electrolytic aluminum in China showed an overall growth trend. In 219, although the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum consumption declined, it still increased by 2.4% compared with 218, and the consumption reached 36.72 million tons. In 22, the domestic consumption of electrolytic aluminum was 38.188 million tons, an increase of 5.77% compared with 219; The output is 37.8 million tons. It is estimated that the consumption of electrolytic aluminum in China will reach 39.87 million tons and the output will reach 38.279 million tons in 221.

based on the built capacity of 42.56 million tons at the end of 22, it is estimated that the ceiling will reach 44.8 million tons in 222. The larger planned production capacity in 221/222 has become a price depressing factor on the supply side under previous market expectations.

As indicators are becoming more and more rare, integrating indicator resources, activating idle production capacity and transferring indicators trapped in environmental capacity to suitable places will become the main focus of electrolytic aluminum industry in the next two years.

planned production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in p>221-222 (unit: 1, tons):

Source: Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd., the middle reaches of the aluminum industry chain of CITIC Securities

The middle reaches of the aluminum industry chain are aluminum processing. The raw aluminum ingots are produced into extruded materials such as aluminum profiles, pipes and bars through processes and processes such as casting, rolling, extrusion and surface treatment.

China is a big country in aluminum calendering. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of aluminum in China increased from 22,375, tons to 57,793, tons from 21 to 22, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.94%. The main aluminum production areas in China are: the cumulative output in Shandong is 11.3787 million tons; The cumulative output of Henan is 1,315,6 tons; The cumulative output of Guangdong Province is 5,283,2 tons.

At present, the domestic manufacturers who master the aluminum alloy forming process mainly include Guangdong Hongtu, Aikedi, Wencan, Derivative Technology, Xusheng, Bethel, Minshi Group, Top Group and Lingyun. The market share of the top five enterprises is 13%:

Source: Huatai Securities

There are few lithium foil battery projects under construction, which are concentrated in several domestic listed aluminum enterprises, mainly including the 5,-ton project of Dingsheng New Materials, the 4,-ton project of Dongyang Light and UACJ, the 35,-ton project of Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. and the 16,8-ton project of nanshan aluminum.

with the gradual production of the project, the global battery foil production capacity is expected to increase from 92,4 tons in 219 to 237,2 tons in 223.

Global capacity share of lithium battery aluminum foil in p>219:

Data source: CITIC Securities

Aluminum alloy

Aluminum alloy has a series of excellent characteristics, such as easy processing, light weight, good conductivity, etc., and its relatively low cost makes it a substitute for steel, copper and other materials. The data shows that the aluminum alloy production in China fluctuates obviously, but the overall growth trend is maintained. In 22, the cumulative aluminum alloy production in China is 9.636 million tons, and the compound annual growth rate from 215 to 22 is 8.9%. It is estimated that the aluminum alloy production in 221 will reach 1.376 million tons.

data source:

aluminum foil compiled by National Bureau of Statistics and China Commercial Industry Research Institute

Aluminum foil can meet the requirements of easy recycling, environmental protection, water resistance, high temperature resistance and so on, and can completely block light, gas and moisture, be waterproof, keep fresh flavor, prevent bacteria and prevent pollution.

At present, China consumes 161,3 tons of aluminum foil every year, which has become the second largest aluminum foil consumer in the world after the United States, but it accounts for a relatively low proportion in the packaging field, with China accounting for only 17%, which is still relatively low compared with 7%-75% in the United States, Japan and Europe. With the rapid development of downstream diversified beverage varieties such as tea drinks, functional drinks and carbonated drinks and the continuous improvement of beer canning rate, it is expected that the market capacity will continue to expand in the future.

data source: sorting out by China Commercial Industry Research Institute

Analysis of key enterprises

Downstream demand of aluminum industry chain

The downstream demand of aluminum maintains a steady growth of 6%-7% all the year round, showing a strong anti-cyclical property.

according to Mysteel statistics, the construction industry is the largest downstream application field of aluminum in China, accounting for 33%. The overall performance of downstream demand in aluminum industry is relatively stable, and the growth rate remains at 6%-7% all the year round.

in recent years, aluminum for transportation, represented by aluminum for automobile lightweight and aluminum for rail transit, has a strong growth momentum, which will be the main direction of product structure upgrading in China's aluminum industry.

driven by the policy of energy saving and emission reduction and the acceleration of electrification, the automobile lightweight is accelerating, in which the chassis lightweight is a new blue ocean, the permeability of aluminum battery box, sub-frame, control arm, steering knuckle, etc. is increasing, and thermoformed body parts are also being applied on a large scale.

At present, the most mainstream lightweight materials are high-strength steel and aluminum alloy. In 221, high-strength steel and aluminum alloy will account for more than 85% of the automotive lightweight market, of which aluminum alloy will account for nearly 65%.

In terms of chassis, Top Group is the leader in the domestic industry, in addition to Fuao Group, a subsidiary of FAW Group, and Bethel, a leading enterprise in steering knuckle; In terms of battery box, Lingyun Co., Ltd., as the largest supplier of automobile metal parts in China, has a leading body part technology in China; Huayu Automobile is the largest integrated supplier of parts in China, and all three sectors of the automobile are involved.

Classification and competition pattern of aluminum alloy lightweight body parts:

Data source: Huayu Body Parts Engineers and Technicians Association, Guotai Junan

Environmental risk of aluminum industry chain

The biggest environmental risk of aluminum industry chain is red mud: 1-2 tons of solid waste red mud will be produced when 1 ton of alumina is produced, which is strongly alkaline. At present, there is no mature treatment scheme, so it can only be stockpiled. There have been many leakage or collapse accidents of red mud warehouse at home and abroad, causing enterprises to stop production.

aluminum is also the basic metal with the strongest energy properties, and it needs at least 4 tons of standard coal to produce 1 ton of electrolytic aluminum. At the same time, aluminum has many characteristics such as low density, high strength and corrosion resistance, which can reduce energy consumption in the subsequent application process; Secondly, the residual value of aluminum is high, the recovery system is perfect and the recycling rate is high.

with the implementation of the last round of supply-side reform, the trend of extensive and high-speed expansion of the industry has ended. Adding Chinalco Group's holding of Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., the domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity/output CR5 will increase to 49.9%/51.9% in 22. Under the background of peak carbon dioxide emissions, the aluminum supply to the ceiling is more stable, and the related carbon emission policy may raise the cost per ton.

aluminum can be widely used in both traditional and new infrastructure fields, such as 5G base stations, big data centers, artificial intelligence, UHV, new energy vehicles, new energy charging piles, intercity high-speed rail and rail transit, and industrial internet, and the industry shows strong consumption resilience.

Analysis of key enterprises

▲ Source: compiled by China Commercial Industry Research Institute.