A tribute to Suzhou’s mysterious property market policy: the polarization and contradictory unity of optimism and pessimism

Recently, Suzhou’s property market policies have been released one after another, and the atmosphere is relatively subtle.

First of all, Suzhou’s recent policies are not widely announced through official announcements and then agreed to a time for implementation. Instead, they "enter the village quietly and don't want to shoot". Various policy adjustments are implemented directly without announcement at all.

For example, last night’s Moments were all over the place, and this morning various media called the Provident Fund Center to confirm the implementation of the Suzhou Provident Fund policy adjustment, which is a recent case:

Contact Previously, policies such as lowering the social security threshold for house purchase in Suzhou, shortening the sales restriction period for second-hand houses in Suzhou, and allowing foreigners to directly buy houses after selling their houses in Suzhou were all implemented without announcement. We can only say that the adjustment of Suzhou's property market is real. Very low profile.

Secondly, Suzhou’s recent policies have indeed been frequent, but the policies that can really directly heat up the property market, which is what we call the “killer trump card”, have not yet emerged.

Two characteristics make the Suzhou property market shrouded in a veil of mystery.

Any rumor circulating in the circle of friends adds a layer of credibility, especially the various news received at night, like "Schr?dinger's cat".

Before 8 o'clock the next morning and before calling the official department for confirmation, these rumors were a double superposition of authenticity and falsehood, and there was no way to infer them through experience and logic.

Under such an environment, the mentality of friends in the industry has also produced a very subtle polarization, which is quite interesting:

One pole is the optimistic and heckler, no matter what policy is implemented, it must be They opened bottles of champagne and shouted: "Suzhou's real estate market will flourish from now on!"

They caroused in the WeChat group, actively advocating "revival of the real estate market" and actively advocating "housing prices will rise."

Combined with the situation of Suzhou’s property market, you will find that what they said seems to make sense:

Suzhou’s housing prices have been very stable in recent years, and they were even featured on CCTV.

·During the recent epidemics, the management level of the entire city of Suzhou has performed well, which will greatly promote the subsequent "talent introduction" work.

·Recently, Suzhou has implemented a series of policies. Even if the intensity is not large, it is a very clear signal and clearly demonstrates the official’s determination to support the Suzhou property market.

·Coupled with the optimism about Suzhou’s future urban development potential, in the long run, houses in Suzhou still have a certain value.

The other pole is much more pessimistic, believing that the policy adjustments currently introduced on the Suzhou property market will have little impact.

They expressed disheartenedly that the Suzhou property market still has not improved much, and the government will not significantly liberalize the Suzhou market. These current policy adjustments are just scratching the surface and have very limited promotion to the property market.

Take the increase in the provident fund limit that was implemented today. After a little calculation, we found that if an individual buys a house with a total price of 1.8 million, the down payment is 600,000, and the remaining 1.2 million will be paid after adjustment. You can get a commercial loan of 600,000 from the provident fund for 20 years. According to the algorithm of equal principal and interest, the result is:

So before the adjustment, the provident fund can only borrow 450,000, and a commercial loan of 750,000 is required. The same is If the loan is for 20 years and the principal and interest are equal, the result is:

The monthly payment will only differ by 100 yuan, and the total repayment will be 20,000 yuan less.

Looking back at the several relaxed policies that were implemented not long ago, it is true that none of them has a particularly immediate effect on the Suzhou property market.

For example, the social security requirement for buying a house has been reduced from "24 consecutive months within three years" to "24 cumulative months within three years"; and the sales restriction period for second-hand houses has been shortened from five years to Three years.

These measures have not expanded Suzhou’s home-buying group, or even overdrafted the potential of Suzhou’s home-buying group.

Coupled with the influence of the economic environment and the main tone of "houses for living, not speculation", most people's enthusiasm for buying houses has waned, and the property market is indeed unlikely to fluctuate as much as it did in previous years. Therefore, the pessimist's view is very reasonable.

What’s more interesting is that optimists are not clear in their minds: the current property market is no longer what it was a few years ago, and past experience cannot be applied to the present and the future;

And pessimists Commentators are also looking forward to a counterattack in the property market, which is healthy, stable, and developing rapidly.

The ambivalent mentality is a true portrayal of people in the real estate industry in Suzhou now.

In the final analysis, Suzhou adopts such a cautious property market policy mainly for the stability of the property market.

In the face of the epidemic, it is natural to introduce favorable policies to help home buyers and development companies tide over the difficulties.

The delay in the implementation of the "killer trump card" shows that Suzhou is very cautious and serious in "stabilizing the property market."

To use the format of one sentence on the Internet to describe the Suzhou property market, that is:

You can always trust Suzhou’s level of control over the pace of the property market.

The first local auction in Suzhou is approaching, and many people are speculating that influential property market policies may be released before the end of May.

This time, Suzhou will no longer make a fortune in silence.