How about selling leftover goods in the mall?

See how the clothing "godfather of tail goods" sells 2 billion business planning genius Ji Liangan.

(20 10- 1 1-25 13:52:09)

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See how the clothing "Godfather of Tail Goods" sold 2 billion yuan.

From artists to planners, from ordinary planners to outstanding managers, today's man of the hour. What kind of business wisdom does Liang, a new commercial real estate figure in China who has created a sales myth of 2 billion yuan in three months and is known as the "godfather of tail goods"? It must be a hot topic that everyone is most concerned about.

notice the time

Liang Jiliang, who lives in Taian, Shandong Province, has a persistent dream since he was a child, that is, to create his own life value through his own hands. It is this dream that supports him to overcome one hardship after another that ordinary people can't imagine and overcome.

"I still remember that when I was studying computer design at 1999 Central Technical School, I started to do several jobs, such as lettering and writing advertising slogans for the owners of clothing stores and shoe stores. I often stay up all night and feel sore all over, but I feel very full. " Recalling his initial schooling experience, Mr. Liang smiled.

With sincere enthusiasm and good craftsmanship, Liang has accumulated many customers. After a long time, these people became his good friends, which also provided him with the opportunity to go to sea for the first time. According to a friend's introduction, Liang rented a counter in Tianlantian Jiezhuang Building Materials Market at a rent of 1200 yuan/month. This experience laid the foundation for his later success.

Liang is doing building materials business. He earned 2000 yuan in the first month, but it was too hard, so he worked for two months. Liang feels that this is not the industry he wants to engage in. He can't find his position, and he intends to leave this industry. Liang Jiliang has a bigger ideal, and his ambition is not here. The place where he lives is a small shop.

This building materials business made Liang taste the ups and downs of life. The brutal competition and indifferent interpersonal relationship in business completely broke his heart. At this time, I felt that Liang was a little discouraged. He feels that he has not found his position after changing so many jobs, or that no career can succeed.

In March 2000, with infinite disappointment and frustration, Liang returned to Jinan after a long absence. He stayed in Jinan for more than ten days. During these ten days, he locked himself in his room every day without eating or sleeping. Liang made a thorough reflection on his two-year experience in Beijing. His mind replays all kinds of study and work experiences and details during his stay in Beijing over and over again.

He remembered a sentence often said in the book: where you fell, get up from there. He shouted this sentence and frantically wrote these words on the paper, over and over again, until the pen could not write another word.

Thankfully, I finally realized the power of Liang. This time, he returned to Beijing again to find his dream.

After returning to Beijing, Liang took his resume to attend job fairs everywhere. In May 2000, by chance, Liang entered a Taiwan-funded enterprise and began to engage in planning work-this was the beginning of Liang's planning practice. After working for more than ten days, Liang was appreciated by the company's senior leaders for his outstanding work performance, and was sent to Dalian by Chinese clothing company to be responsible for the planning and publicity of the "Luoqiao Bear" clothing exhibition. After Liang's careful planning and whimsy, "Luoqiaoxiong" children's wear was successfully listed in the north. In the same year, the brand won the title of "Top Ten Brand Children's Wear in China".

"From then on, Liang Jiliang gradually fell in love with planning this industry and felt that he was very suitable for this industry. Engaged in planning work can give full play to his imagination and let his thoughts fully integrate into his own creativity and ideas. " Mr. Liang said.

After working in Taiwan Province Huashang Clothing Company for nearly a year, Liang felt that his planning ability could not be improved here, and he wanted to do more advanced and cutting-edge planning. The company has no room for development in China. Although the Chinese company offered him a high salary, he chose to leave without hesitation.

In April of 20001year, Liang went to Jiutouniao to apply for the position of marketing director. During his two years working here, Liang has brought the integration of Chu culture and Jiutouniao brand to the extreme. Since then, the nine-headed bird has owned a number of franchise stores in Beijing in just one year, and its business is booming. Every day, the guests are full and endless. The boss has more trust in it and has been entrusted with heavy responsibilities again and again. "I really didn't expect that just one of my own ideas could bring such a big change." Mr. Liang said with a smile.

During his stay at the Nine-headed Bird, Liang personally worked out a series of planning schemes. His planning strength has been greatly improved, and his own planning theory has been formed through various practices and research. After forming his own planning theory system, where will Liang go this time?

seek business opportunities

On February 26th, 2002, at 65438, Liang registered and established his own "Aries Pavilion" planning co., Ltd. in Beijing. On the day the company was founded, only 6 yuan money was left on Liang.

After nearly a year's efforts, the company's development was basically on the right track by 2003. During this period, Liang specialized in all kinds of marketing planning, served as planning consultant for more than 80 Chinese food chain enterprises in Beijing, and planned and guided famous catering enterprises such as Baiyeju, a century-old model of Chinese food, Pangxielaosong, and Chu, a flavor restaurant. In addition, he also dabbled in the marketing planning of liquor, clothing, electronics, fast-moving consumer goods and other industries. Liang's career has reached a new level.

In 2006, commercial real estate was in the ascendant all over the country, and a large number of commercial real estate projects mushroomed, but the success rate was less than 15%. Is commercial real estate really the Red Sea?

At that time, Liang's lover was engaged in investment promotion in Tianlian Commodity Wholesale Market in Lizeqiao. Under a very accidental opportunity, when chatting with my lover, I learned that due to the small number of merchants and the partial location, the investment promotion work was not progressing smoothly, and the boss was very anxious.

Liang knows something about the "blue sky" market where his lover works. When he used to do propaganda planning for the famous Chu catering company in Beijing, he had to go through Tianlaitian market every day, and he also saw the brochures and propaganda strategies in the early stage of Tianlaitian market.

Liang believes that Tianlantian market is unlikely to successfully locate the small commodity market. First, the Lizeqiao business district where it is located is not a prosperous business district in the traditional sense. The small commodity market focuses on popularity and passenger flow, which obviously does not have such conditions; Second, the business circle around Lizeqiao is a traditional building materials business circle, with many foreigners around, relatively low consumption purchasing power, mature commodity markets nearby and relatively fierce competition. If you want to locate accurately, you have to find another way.

As a result, an affair between Liang and his wife inadvertently led to the birth of a new concept, which Liang did not expect at that time. Business opportunities are everywhere, and it only favors those who have the will. On June 5438+February 65438 +0, 2006, under the introduction of his wife, Liang officially accepted the entrustment of Hou Xujiang, the boss of Tianlantian, as the marketing planning director of Tianlantian.

See how the clothing "Godfather of Tail Goods" sold 2 billion yuan.

As the saying goes, everything is difficult at the beginning. Before Liang became the planning director, Tianlantian market suffered a financial crisis. Due to market positioning and planning mistakes, it can't start business within three months, because it can't recruit merchants, and the previous investment of more than 5 million yuan has been spent in Shui Piao. Not only that, but also more than a month's salary is in arrears, and many employees are preparing to find another place.

Liang felt that he had received a very difficult case. He thinks that before he denies that Lantian is positioned in the small commodity market, he must have something unique and novel. Now is the time to find a way.

He learned that in recent years, the anti-dumping problem of China's textile and garment exports has become increasingly prominent, and some garment processing enterprises can't successfully clear customs, so they can only switch to domestic production. Some domestic businesses engaged in the wholesale of clothing in stock range from 30,000 to 50,000 pieces of clothing to more than 100,000 pieces. These enterprises are eager to solve the inventory problem in order to withdraw funds and invest them in the next stage of production.

Liang also found that many clothing enterprises' inventory sales channels are to squeeze out goods far beyond their normal sales to the market and channels at all levels, especially the first-class commercial channels, that is, pressing warehouses or stuffing goods, which is usually a helpless sales behavior and the lowest-level marketing activities. The quickest shortcut for manufacturers or distributors to deal with pressure goods should be to sell them in the professional inventory market. Judging from the present situation of Beijing clothing wholesale market, most clothing wholesale merchants have not found their own professional market, which constitutes a market blank-professional clothing inventory wholesale market.

"There are more than 3,000 dealers in Beijing engaged in warehousing and warehouse pressing business. They are distributed in every corner of Beijing, mainly scattered, underground and small-scale operations. An important missing point of these dealers is supply information. Their survival depends on the supply of goods, so people generally expect to establish a professional market that can supply goods centrally. " Mr. Liang said.

The keen market vision made Liang set his sights on the clothing inventory industry. However, everything in stock is old-fashioned, so it seems that we should give it a brand-new concept. What's your name? Liang thought hard, and finally, the word "tail goods" jumped into his mind. Liang used his intelligence to name the stock goods as "tail goods" and extended them to form his own theory of "tail goods", which is of epoch-making significance.

There are only a few days left before the curtain. At the first investment promotion meeting, 26 merchants came. For a 15000 square meter and more than 900 stalls, these 26 merchants are only nine Niu Yi cents.

On February 28th, 65438, Tianlantian opened as scheduled. Of course, the scene can only be described as miserable: the weather is not beautiful and the snow is falling. Because the shopping center is close to Lize coach station, a large number of migrant workers are waiting at the gate of the shopping center to go home for the New Year.

Liang thought, anyway, there is no one in such a big shopping mall, so let them go to the shopping mall to avoid the cold. In addition, it is not easy for migrant workers' brothers, so it is unintentional for managers to invite these migrant workers into the mall to avoid the cold. When the migrant workers' brothers saw that a down jacket in the shopping mall was only sold in 30 yuan, they all felt incredible, so they snapped it up, and most of the goods were snapped up in an instant. On the same day, individual merchants sold more than 6,000 yuan of goods in one day.

The news spread from one merchant to another. After 26 merchants tasted the sweetness brought by "tail goods", they quickly spread this exciting news to other merchants. On the afternoon of the investment promotion meeting, all 328 booths on the first floor were rented out within one and a half hours. A * * * three-tier market, each layer of investment promotion work from the beginning to the end of no more than 3 hours. Today, when there is a serious surplus of shopping malls and commercial places have changed from seller's market to buyer's market, this is a myth in the history of investment promotion.

Create huge wealth

During the trial operation of Tianlantian Tail Goods Market for three months, the market shipment has exceeded 65.438+0.2 billion pieces, with sales of nearly 2 billion yuan. By the end of 2007, Tianlantian's popularity and dominance in the tail goods market had been initially established. After development, Tianlantian Tail Goods Market has become a wonderful flower in the field of commodity circulation and commercial real estate development, and achieved a commercial miracle with the real speed of China.

During the Golden Week in 2009, Tianlantian Tail Market received180,000 person-times. With the opportunity of "May Day" Golden Week, tourists from all over the world flocked to Tianlantian Tail Goods Market while visiting the scenic spots, and felt the stimulation of snapping up ultra-low-priced brand names.

The huge tail cargo throughput of Tianlantian tail cargo market has become a barometer of China tail cargo market. The sudden economic crisis in 2009 cast a shadow on garment production enterprises. This financial crisis has not only hit the world economy hard, but also China's economy is inevitably in trouble, and clothing export and clothing retail are in a survival dilemma. On the other hand, the clothing tail market is another scene. Due to the economic crisis, people's income has generally decreased, and people have tightened their wallets. The previous luxury style has been restrained, and the fine tradition of advocating frugality and eliminating extravagance and waste of the Chinese nation has been picked up again and joined the Taobao army one after another.

I have to admit that Liang's concept of "tail goods" not only created considerable wealth, but also eased the difficulties of a large number of clothing tail goods wholesale merchants. The inventory of large clothing manufacturers has been solved, and the inventory has been converted into funds, which is conducive to market sales and investment. At the same time, it has also played a great role in promoting taxation. And put forward a new concept of clothing market, focusing on protecting the intellectual property rights of clothing brands.

The two-hour interview ended, and the wisdom and courage of Liang, a senior planner and self-made successful businessman, convinced people.

Where is the centralized production area of foreign trade garments in China?

The main foreign trade garment factories in China are concentrated in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong and other provinces. Most of the tail goods of our garment factories are sent to Beijing through several wholesalers in the middle, and also to Hebei, Tianjin, Shanxi, Shaanxi and other places. Therefore, some people don't think so little, and there won't be so many foreign trade debtors everywhere. Everyone should discuss with clothing manufacturers or friends who know about foreign trade clothing, so that they can distinguish between foreign trade goods, single goods and imitation goods in the actual process of making clothing.

Second, how is foreign trade tail goods formed?

Some people say that 90% of foreign trade goods on the Internet are nonsense. They can only say that their view is that there are problems with foreign trade receipts, and even if there are no problems, there will not be so many now. So do they really know how the receipt is generated? In fact, they have no idea. As a manufacturer, I will tell you how the tail list is produced, so that everyone can understand how the tail list is produced. Of course, I'm not saying that all foreign trade clothing manufacturers on the Internet are real foreign trade tails, because many people really fish in troubled waters when they see foreign trade tails making money. We still need to know more about foreign trade products and don't be cheated. Why is it inevitable that foreign trade garment factories exported abroad have tail goods?

First of all, we need to know the workflow of foreign trade garment factory:

1. Fax mail of foreign customers.

2. Make samples and quote according to the fax mail of foreign customers.

3. Modify the sample price and wait for confirmation from foreign customers.

4. Buy cotton yarn (different fabrics) as needed.

5. Dyeing (be sure to dye enough at one time, otherwise it is easy to have color difference)

cut

7. Printing, dyeing or embroidery

8. Make it on the computer

9. Cut the thread \ \ Select \ \ Ironing \ \ Packaging.

10. Packaging and delivery

The above is the general process, and there may be problems in every link, such as holes in weaving, printing and dyeing errors, dirty stitches at the machine opening and uneven stitches, so you should set aside some spare parts in advance at the beginning, for example, the order is 654.38+100,000 pieces, and the calculation requires 654.38+100,000 square meters of cloth. So you should weave 654.38+100,000 square meters, and if you control it well or are lucky, then12,000 square meters of cloth will eventually come out as110,000 pieces (no matter how well controlled it is, it is impossible to come out. ), and foreign goods are received strictly according to the order, so the extra 1000 pieces are. But most of them are good, because if there are defects, they will be thrown directly in the last process, and we can't wait until the last process. A few defects were found in the final packaging stage. This is how the foreign trade tail list is produced. The more foreign trade clothes manufacturers produce, the more tail orders they produce, and the number of tail orders of large garment factories will reach as many as 1 10,000 pieces a year.

Third, how to identify the real foreign trade goods?

1 Look at the stitches.

Real foreign trade clothing has high requirements on stitches, and there are strict requirements on how many stitches there are per inch, so intuitively, real foreign trade clothing has uniform and fine stitches, while fakes often don't care so much.

2 Look at the accessories.

Sometimes, it's difficult to distinguish between genuine and fake foreign trade clothes and fake fabrics, so we should look at accessories from a small perspective. Most of the accessories of real foreign trade clothing are "provided by customers", with exquisite workmanship and brand characteristics, such as zippers, buttons and small marks on clothes. Some even have brand logo. If the workmanship is rough, or a large number of clothes use the same buttons and other accessories, they may be fakes.

3 see if it has been washed.

Many real foreign trade clothes have been washed in advance, so they are not easy to shrink, feel good, and some substances harmful to human body have been removed, while many fakes have not gone through this process, which is obviously different in the feel and impression of fabrics.

How to purchase goods to get the maximum profit?

Doing business, to put it bluntly, is the process of buying and selling goods and earning the difference from them, but it also involves a lot of knowledge. Taking commodity procurement as an example, all operators should know how to determine the quantity, quality and type of procurement, how to determine the proportion of procurement funds and working capital, when to replenish goods and how to determine the quantity of replenishment. Below, we will introduce the basic knowledge commonly used in these businesses to everyone, hoping to inspire some small business operators who have just started.

1, wholesale and retail profit model

The biggest difference between wholesale and retail is that wholesalers can only make money by selling a single commodity in large quantities, while retailers can make a high profit by selling a single commodity, but the shipments are less than wholesalers.

At the beginning of opening a store, most operators don't want to press too many commodities, so they will choose only a small part of each commodity as samples, and gradually understand the market demand of consumers through samples. If you find that there is a great demand for this commodity, then decide to supplement it, because it is relatively safe and less risky. But this method also has a disadvantage, that is, when you ask the wholesaler to buy a single product, or no one is willing to give you the goods, even if the price is much higher than the wholesale price. In this way, your higher purchase price and profit will inevitably lead to your uncompetitive price, and many customers will give up buying, which will inevitably interfere with your judgment on the market prospect of this product.

So before you do it, you need to know the customer's needs deeply and have absolute confidence in the goods you choose (if you don't have confidence in the goods you choose, what goods will you enter? ), in the process of purchasing goods, give wholesalers enough sincerity and confidence to strive for good wholesale prices for themselves.

2. Quantity purchased

Purchase quantity includes many aspects, such as purchase amount, type of purchased goods, type and quantity of individual goods, etc. There is a simple way to determine the purchase amount, that is, to sum up the monthly operating costs of your entire store (including store rent, artificial water and electricity, taxes and fees, management fees, etc.). ), and then divided by the profit rate, the data obtained is the monthly purchase volume you want. For example, if your total operating cost is 5000 yuan and the average profit from selling products is 200%, then you need to buy at least 2500 yuan of goods, because 5000/200% = 2500. In this way, you can make ends meet. If you only buy 2000 yuan. Then even if you sell all these goods within a month, your profit will only be 4000 pounds. Not enough for your expenses.

There should be as many kinds of goods as possible for the first time, because you need to give customers a variety of products to choose from. When you have a certain understanding of customers, you can lock in a certain type of products, because funds are always limited. Only by concentrating funds on a limited variety can we purchase a large number of single products and ask wholesalers to give lower wholesale prices.

When you lock certain kinds of products, the quantity of a single commodity category can be subdivided into display quantity, inventory quantity and turnover quantity. The displayed quantity is the quantity you put on the shelf, the inventory quantity is the inventory quantity in your warehouse, and the turnover quantity is the actual shipment quantity in two purchase periods. From the conclusion drawn by operators with many years of operating experience, at least three commodities per commodity can maintain a relatively benign commodity turnover. When you buy a commodity and it sells well again, you will soon need to replenish it separately. At this time, no matter in terms of time and money spent, it is not worth the loss. And if you don't replenish the goods, you can only watch the customers leave disappointed. However, if you buy three identical products, other products are likely to need replenishment during the period of selling these three products, so you can replenish them at one time to improve the replenishment efficiency and save the replenishment cost.

3. How to get the support of wholesalers?

There are two factors that will affect the wholesaler's support for you: the first is your initial purchase. If your initial purchase is too small, the wholesaler will think that you have no strength, or that you have insufficient confidence in his products; The second is the frequency of replenishment. If you often go to the wholesaler to replenish goods, even if the quantity is small, the wholesaler still thinks that your goods will turn around quickly and bring him long-term benefits. The wholesaler's support for you is that as long as there is a new product, he will inform you, and he may automatically adjust the price when buying next time. In addition, if wholesalers think you are an important customer, they will generally tell you the kind of goods that are selling well recently. Knowing these prices will enable you to judge the market and customers more accurately.

4, the rules of the wholesale market

A, don't check your products slowly in the wholesale store.

When you mention the goods, you only need to count the quantity. Generally, when you find that there is something wrong with the product, you will ask for a replacement (of course, it should not be too far away from the purchase time). If you order in a wholesale store after picking up the goods, it will make the wholesaler think that you are a troublesome customer, so you are unwilling to deal with you for a long time.

B, don't expect to reduce the risk by exchanging goods through wholesalers.

When purchasing goods, don't ask the wholesaler whether the products are not easy to sell, but whether they can be replaced with goods that are easy to sell. If you ask this question, the wholesaler will think that you have never done business before, and you are a novice in business (if the business risk can be controlled to this extent, everyone may make a fortune). Needless to say, you will guess what kind of quotation the wholesaler will give you. Wholesalers are not obliged to take the risk of purchasing goods for you. It is a good support that he can replace defective products for you.

C. the price adjustment in the wholesale market is very small.

As mentioned above, the profit of a single commodity of a wholesaler is very low, and the downward adjustment of commodity prices cannot be the same as that of a retailer. The general adjustment range is between 2% and 3%, and the decline of 5% is already very severe. If you pester the wholesaler for another 20% discount on the wholesale price, you will let the wholesaler know that you seldom wander around the wholesale market. On the other hand, in the wholesale market, the general goods are transported by car or railway (because the transportation cost is much lower than that of express delivery), and the buyer is responsible for it. If you meet a good wholesaler, he is most willing to help you with the consignment formalities, but the expenses and freight for moving to the freight yard must be paid by the buyer himself.

Manufacturers are divided into: one is self-produced and self-sold, which is dedicated to their own direct stores and authorized stores, like some big brands. There is also a kind of self-production and self-marketing, that is, small family-owned factories produce their own products, open their own wholesale stores or make production and sales through a one-stop industrial chain. It is more difficult for outsiders to enter. This kind of factory is small in batch and scale, but its structure is stable. These two, one big and one small, are the envy of many small factories and even large factories. Each has his own internal strength.

Second, produce and sell, do more OEM, and have your own brand, and you can create any brand for others. Many such factories along the coast of China are like this. Dozens to hundreds of people, on the basis of ensuring their stable supply, take orders to find someone to start work at any time, and immediately lay off employees to save money without orders. Typical landlady type. This is also the reason why our poor migrant workers' brothers and sisters changed factories for several months. It's not that they want to change, but that the factory is out of stock and only has a basic salary. They withdraw money piece by piece, so they can't spend money. There are still many foreign orders, which is why so many factories closed down in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta during the financial crisis last year. Because these OEM factories don't have their own brands, they only have machines and workers. What foreign countries want can be done according to the drawings. Get a processing fee, as long as there is an order, everyone is fine. Even some factories only serve those big overseas customers for one year. Everyone was happy that there was no financial crisis, but the financial crisis broke out. Foreign investment is shrinking, and demand is also declining. Unfortunately, thousands of factories depend on foreign orders to survive. Without the factory, of course, they can't afford to support so many workers, so they have to lay off employees. Therefore, when we see the impact of the financial crisis on large industries, it is not multinational companies or big bosses who lose. The biggest victims are our brothers and sisters who work as recorders in the factory. In fact, this can't be blamed on the factory owner. They all want to survive, and everyone must save themselves first. Hehe, sorry to digress. In fact, this part is now turning. This is a good thing.

Third, we should make clothes suitable for China, not externally, directly internally, facing the domestic market and following the changes of international fashion. This is the main supplier we got, but if you haven't been to the factory, you may not know. The time in the factory is calculated by minutes, and one more process will increase the cost. Therefore, it is best to calculate in the factory. They seldom do sales directly, but directly find big sellers and agents, and the factory is only responsible for production. Every order is a big order, usually tens of thousands, so few people, especially small buyers, can eat the goods. Even if they can, the price is not necessarily much lower than that of other people's big agents, so if you are not a big crocodile in a small shop, you'd better keep your mouth shut and stop clamoring for goods from the factory all day. Hehe, because people calculate by tonnage, we calculate by half a catty.

The fourth type is a specialized factory for copying plates, that is, guerrillas in the clothing industry. I can do anything you want. You can give me samples at night, and you can receive the goods the next day as long as you are willing to pay. These are the goods that many manufacturers say their manufacturers get. This kind of factory has great autonomy, is the most cutting-edge innovator, and can build anything. This is our China market, the hometown of A.B. products. It is also the contribution of these people that all of us are happy to say that we bought famous brands in the past at low prices and good quality. There is also one of the biggest open secrets. All ex-factory goods have no labels, and they are only used when guests need them, just as the advertisement says. Hehe, this is also the birthplace of China brand road, and many domestic brands are like this. I'm not rejecting it, but I hope more independent brands can stand out. Isn't there a saying that heroes don't ask about their origins? I support any brand in China. Because it is our own brand in China after all.

Manufacturer's goods: divided into genuine products, defective products and defective products. I don't need to say these terms, everyone can understand them. It can be said that 90% of the goods you take are genuine. Why is there a big difference between quality and price? It's because you haven't paid enough. You get what you pay for. Don't ask too much for the goods with high cost performance, or the wholesalers who say the real price will kill you. Unlucky gay friends who are greedy for cheap will encounter defective products or even defective products.

To sum up, I mainly want our shopkeeper friends to get rid of the misleading wrong view of looking for manufacturers. Of course, there are exceptions to doors. Don't pat the brick. I'm just being honest. However, most shopkeepers should still find their own selling points. Cheap goods are not good, and good goods are not cheap. Only by taking the exam can you earn more. If you keep your eyes on low prices, your store will be finalized. It is not impossible to find the manufacturer, it is only a matter of time and ability. Doing things in a down-to-earth manner will naturally lead to by going up one flight of stairs. Don't be ungrateful and delay business.

Will it be popular for supermarkets to do such clothing business? Yes! ! ! Low price, high quality and guarantee! ! Good market prospect, high profit and high popularity! ! Who can take the lead, wait and see! !