How important is a strong industry to China?

The following excerpt is from How Important Is a Complete Industrial System to China?

Author: Chen Jing

First of all, the role of a complete industrial system is mainly reflected in foreign competitiveness and national defense military strength.

In foreign trade competition, a more perfect industrial system can reduce the cost of supporting industrial production, help to produce products with high quality and low price, and strengthen the competitive advantage of domestic products in international trade. Due to the influence of globalization, many raw materials, semi-finished products and products imported from abroad have advantages over domestic production, so it is unnecessary to maintain a complete 100% industry, which will increase the cost of products. This is the reason why the industrial systems of other countries except China are not absolutely complete.

A 100% industrial system, its greatest value is embodied in the war, and it can independently produce all war products without being stuck by foreign countries. In the war between a small country and a big country, a big country can completely destroy a small country with a few cutting-edge products, but in the war between big countries, the gap in cutting-edge technology is not so great that one side can't resist it completely. Therefore, at this time, it is more realistic to produce a large number of mid-range weapons quickly than to produce several expensive high-end weapons slowly. For example, see the tank battle between Germany and the Soviet Union.

Since the end of World War II, the world has been dominated by whites, monopolizing the world's largest resources and profits. In this international system, China is an anomaly. * * * There is a saying: "If you strive for peace, you will live in peace; Seek peace by concession and then die peacefully. " China has not only had military conflicts and even wars with the United States and the Soviet Union, but also suffered a situation in which the Soviet Union and the United States jointly carved up China. Therefore, the dangerous moment of national subjugation is around China's neck, and an absolutely complete industrial system without outsiders has become the most realistic choice for China.

Of course, up to now, a complete industrial system is still of great value to China, which is of great significance to China's industrial upgrading. Even with all kinds of high-tech products that have been criticized by people, China ranks among the top in the world in many technical capabilities. Backward and advanced, it depends on who you compare with, what's more, China is catching up with technology, and the speed of mergers and acquisitions is so fast.

Why a complete industrial system is so important to a country. This is because if the industrial system depends on the outside world, the whole economic system of this country may be seriously damaged in the conflict.

Although China still needs to import many things (such as chips). If the supply is really cut off, China can still produce low-end chips for use. Although the output is low, the power consumption is high and the speed is slow, it is enough to support industrial systems.

Therefore, a complete industrial system is of great significance in national security. No matter which country wants to threaten it, they can't bring down its economic system through a trade embargo. This makes a country occupy a favorable position in international conflicts.

From the perspective of economic development, because a country's industry is relatively complete, it is easy for foreign investors to find local manufacturers when investing, which greatly reduces the production cost of products (importing parts from abroad requires not only freight but also customs duties). This makes many industries in China have to stay in China, even though the labor cost is obviously higher than that in many developing countries (of course, the perfect infrastructure is also an important reason).

Therefore, a complete industrial system is not only conducive to national security, but also conducive to economic development.

Second, I'm afraid China, the United States, the European Union and Russia are the only countries with complete industrial systems in the world. Japan is half, and it is severely limited by natural resources. Among them, the United States and the European Union are the strongest, and basically all fields can reach the world leading level. China's level in basic materials, precision instruments, electronics, etc. is comparable, but it is really poor. Russia is seriously degraded.

Many things in the United States are not produced, not to say that they cannot be produced. It's just that production is unprofitable. The specific technology, it is still there. If necessary, the United States can still restore relevant production capacity.

Especially the existence of Batumi, the arms embargo began at the end of1980s. Beihang University can't buy genuine adobe, and the United States recently banned Intel from exporting Xeon processors to China. Hehe, there is an embargo under the free market. (Sitting in Guan Jun [ID:china_2049] Interrupt: Do you know what Octopus is? Let me explain something to you. Batumi is the abbreviation of Paris Coordinating Committee. Its official name is "Export Control Coordinating Committee"? It was secretly established in June at the suggestion of the United States 1949 1 1. Because it is headquartered in Paris, it is often called "Paris Coordinating Committee". The purpose is to restrict member countries from exporting strategic materials and high technology to socialist countries. The embargo list includes three categories of tens of thousands of products: military weapons and equipment, cutting-edge technology products and rare materials. 1 April 9941day, Batumi was officially dissolved. However, its list of prohibited items was later inherited by the Wassenaar Agreement and continues to this day. )

Manufacturing industry. It is said that after a certain five-axis comes out, the price of foreign products will be directly lowered. Moreover, the five axes in China are said to be relatively rough.

But this thing was 100 years ago, when others ate meat and you drank northwest wind. It was 60 years ago that others ate meat and you drank leftover soup. 10 years later, you still drink soup, but people can only follow suit.

This thing is urgent, so let's scrap it. We must make up our minds to continue to lose money for decades. What you see is not how much money you earn from your own products, but whether the price of imported products can be halved again.

Let's take the communication industry as an example. Let's talk about switches. 15 years ago, a board cost 200,000 yuan. 10 years ago, 65438+ ten thousand. This is normal technological progress. But please note that it is not the technology used that is more NB. They are all mature technologies for more than ten years. However, if people monopolize technology, it will take five years to reduce the price by half.

But the most pit is the guide plate, which is just an iron plate, used to fill the empty groove, turn to flow and control the temperature of the equipment. 35 dollars each. 1 kg body weight. It is not stainless steel yet. . . No price reduction for many years. Can you say this is technology? But people monopolize the switch technology, and other brands don't recognize it. If you dare to install it yourself, people will not guarantee the whole machine.

10 years ago, domestic switches began to have high-end products. There are too many bugs. But the price is low, so it has been used in some small cities. It has been used for 3 years and is very stable. The failure rate is 1.5 of European and American products. As soon as this result came out, the price of changing the machine began the diving process.

65438+ ten thousand boards, five years later, 65438+ ten thousand boards, five years later. . . Many European and American factories have closed down and disappeared. . . .

As for the 35-dollar iron plate Free delivery. Later, I made it clear that in fact, there is no iron plate, so don't match it. ...

That is the reality. What matters is not whether your products are exquisite or not. But whether my own ability can make foreigners honestly reduce their prices.

The laggards are very sad and can only bear it. The so-called win-win situation This is actually a beautiful lie.

At first, it was backward and incompetent, and people said that 10 thousand would be 10 thousand. Later, the laggards had some abilities. People say I earn 5000 yuan, so don't come out to grab the market for your products. . . . All right, win-win. . . .

In the past, China's industrial level was very low. There are 654.38+0 million reducers used in the mill of cement plant sold abroad, but the domestic reducers can't develop stable products. After localization, foreign large reducers have basically withdrawn from the domestic market. Because domestic production may only need 3 million. Similarly, the prices of all kinds of equipment in the whole system have also dropped. Then there is the great development of the domestic cement industry. Today, the price of cement has dropped to the price of cabbage. Then the cement industry developed greatly, and the technology accumulation of Sinoma International, the world's largest general contractor of cement projects, made Sinoma International's overseas general contracting business account for 80% of its own business today. In turn, it has created the great development of cement industry in Africa and Southeast Asia. Can you imagine the time when there were almost no cement factories in Africa and only cement importers five years ago? Therefore, I am glad to hear that China is a developed country's pulverizer. Life in Europe didn't come out of thin air. When Chinese people can't make things, when they can sell things from five dollars to fifty dollars, have you ever thought that you have been working all your life, and 80% of them are raising leisure holidays for European and American countries? This can make them have a face that is not bullied.

Or the reducer industry. See how European and American countries treat the hearts of villains with the belly of a gentleman. In 2005, Siemens acquired a company, which was no big deal for the giant. The acquisition amount of 65.438+0.2 billion euros is not too big or too small. But it has profoundly affected the pattern of the world reducer industry. The acquired company is called Flanders, which is the first in the reducer industry. After being acquired by Siemens, Siemens filled its own gap in this field. But this is a terrible thing for GE, because GE has extensive competition with Siemens in many fields. Especially in the field of wind power, the key component of wind power main engine is reducer. Prior to this, GE mainly purchased from Flanders, and GE and Siemens were the most direct rivals in this field. One of these two companies is an American giant, the other is a German giant, and Flanders is also a German company. Even if we don't cooperate closely, it won't affect the cooperation between GE and Flanders. The ending of the story should be that everyone will live a happy life together. It's just a story. GE's most direct reaction was to find a company to cooperate in China and cut off the cooperation with Flanders. Because they were afraid that Siemens would get stuck at a critical moment, they trained a China company, which changed its output value from several billion to several billion in just a few years, ranking first in the world in terms of wind power mainframe shipments. International giants all know that being stuck in the neck is not good. I was thinking that after so many industries in China were occupied by China people, people found that foreigners earned so much money. In this case, many people still treat foreigners with pure eyes. Should they be stupid or naive?

Third, do you think the manufacturing industry can buy it if it has money? You can buy if you want.

What I want to say is that if an instrument is not made in China, foreign products will be sold to you at twice the price. Only by producing truly competitive domestic products will their prices drop sharply.

Failure to industrialize means that you need to buy at high prices in the international market, and you will face technology blockade and export ban at any time. Failure to industrialize means that the huge domestic procurement demand can only be fattened by a group of comprador, while only a group of top engineering students in China can join international high-tech enterprises to get high salaries, while others can only join OEM enterprises with difficulty.

Give some examples of well-known industries and have a superficial discussion.

1, localization of integrated circuit industry.

Whether it is the basic industries such as precision machine tools and CNC machine tools, or the cutting-edge industries such as missiles, radars, ships and aerospace, it is necessary to take integrated circuits as the core. In the early 1980s, 8086 chips needed to be imported. How much foreign exchange was there in China at that time? By exporting foreign exchange such as textiles, handicrafts and furniture, we can buy 8086/8088 chips from the international market at a high price, and high-end chips are often blocked by Batumi. This sourness is simply unbearable.

The main work of a number of microelectronics institutes, such as Institute of Microelectronics of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Microelectronics of Tsinghua, and Institute of Microelectronics of Fudan University, is to deal with the technical blockade of mainstream manufacturing technology in China microelectronics industry by many countries. At that stage, the main work of microelectronics research institute was to develop the production process of integrated circuits. In short, when a microelectronics research institute makes a production process of 0.6um integrated circuit, we will show a message to the United States and Pakistan: China has mastered this technology. If your country continues to prevent the export of 0.6um technology chips to China or sell them to China at a high price, then your country will develop and produce these chips by itself within five years, and will not import your chips any more. Therefore, the trade association of American imperialists will lobby Congress to approve the export of this product to China.

At present, China is still importing a large number of chips, but on the one hand, mid-range and below chips can definitely be made in China, and only high-end chips need to be imported.

Tell you a story. When we are making analog integrated circuits and radio frequency circuits, we want to learn from some important foreign chips. What should we do? We will polish off the package first, and then take out the chip; Remove the upper layer of the chip layer by layer by etching, then take photos, manually draw the layout, analyze the circuit, and simulate it with spectrum simulation tools, Ohyeah! China's ability to learn, understand and digest makes the whole world proud.

Relying on such barbaric growth means, the integrated circuit industry began to develop around 90 years ago. The industry took the lead in developing cutting-edge research and development aimed at mastering advanced manufacturing technology, and obtained the right to import new chips; Then, we seek the world's advanced chip foundry enterprises to settle in China through various channels, so Zhang Rujing started to set up SMIC in Yizhuang in 2000 and encouraged the development of integrated circuit industry in 2004. Every year, universities train at least 2000 engineers and send them to the integrated circuit industry. In 2007, Infineon, Qi and other integrated circuit enterprises also flourished in Xi.

I don't know whether any company acquired the core technology of the international integrated circuit industry during the financial crisis in 2009, but what I know is that after the integrated circuit industry developed for 25 years, by 20 14, the 12 inch 28 nm plasma silicon etcher independently developed by North Microelectronics Company passed the whole process verification of SMIC production line and got the order. This is a fucking zero breakthrough!

2. Localization of rail transit equipment

It is very difficult to keep up with the development of the international community. China can't be at the low end of the international industrial chain for a long time, let alone be controlled by others in key technologies and equipment. China cannot buy modernization from abroad. (Unless 65.438+300 million people work overtime to farm and process on behalf of others, they can support the modern life of 50 million people.)

The field of rail transit is a standard example. I remember that by 20 10, the National Development and Reform Commission approved a total of 25+ 10 projects for the construction of 50 subway lines in 35 cities, and the cost of each subway was about 20 billion, including at least 8 billion lines of electromechanical equipment (locomotives, tracks, shield machines, catenary, screen doors, automatic fare collection, etc.), which was 4,000 yuan. Only by forming the R&D and manufacturing system of China rail transit equipment can the subway cost be effectively reduced.

If all imported equipment is purchased, the cost of mechanical and electrical equipment will increase by at least 50%. Who will benefit from spending so much money? International product manufacturer! Their gross profit is at least 50%, so engineers of product manufacturers can work five days a week, five hours a day, and have more than one month's holiday every year, and they all go to China as business class plus five-star hotels. The product agent spent 5% of the commercial cost and made about 8% of the profit. The value-added tax was 17% (subway construction is the investment of the central and local governments, and the value-added tax is left-handed or right-handed), import tax rebate, customs clearance and so on. Agents have done 400 billion business, leaving only 30 billion profits and only creating about 3,000 jobs directly.

How many people will 400 billion industrial sales support if localization is realized? Anyway, in 20 13, Huawei's sales amounted to 239 billion, and its employees150,000 (the salary of Huawei employees is still very high). There are countless supporting enterprises that outsource or subcontract Huawei. 400 billion mechanical and electrical equipment procurement directly creates more than 400,000 jobs, which I think is conservative.

How big can the consumption of 400,000 high-income people drive the catering, entertainment, home appliances, automobiles and housing markets?

Therefore, the only way to achieve real common prosperity is to establish a complete industrial system and realize the localization of key technologies and equipment. Otherwise, only a few people will get rich.

Tell a story about the localization of AFC. The protagonist is Hua Hong. The automatic fare collection systems of Shanghai Rail Transit 1 Line and Line 2 are both manufactured by American Cube Company, and the commissioning of 1 Line was completed in September, 1998. 1999 was put into production in March. However, the disadvantages of all imports are high cost and high operating cost. Because of the confidentiality of key technologies, the system maintenance and upgrading are difficult, and spare parts are insufficient, senior maintenance personnel fly from the United States, and their working hours are calculated from the United States. Therefore, when bidding for Line 3, the government asked foreign suppliers to provide localization measures, and the consortium of Shanghai Hua Hong and Spanish INDRA Company won the bid, and gradually realized the localization of application software and maintenance components in the implementation process.

In fact, at this time, the level of Hua Hong in Shanghai is still limited, but it can't stand the support of the government-the government thinks that Hua Hong in Shanghai initially has the ability to design and manufacture independently, so at the end of 200 1, Hua Hong in Shanghai killed CUBIC Company at a price of 60 million yuan, and actually completed the work in 2004, and trained a group of people who are high-tech, modern and innovative.

The contract value of one line is 1 100 million yuan, and 50 lines are newly divided by Shanghai Hua Teng, Shanghai Hua Hong, Nanjing Panda, Gaoxin Hyundai, Peking University Founder and Zhejiang University Network.

This time, Hua Hong also had a dialogue with Fudan Microelectronics (you see, the first thing I said was microelectronics! ) cooperation can systematically provide domestic products and promote the development of microelectronics industry.

The greatness of this story lies in that it took less than eight years from the introduction of technology to the expulsion of foreigners, and a large number of employees were trained.

3. Localization of equipment in petrochemical field

The first two examples are not large in scale, and the real big head is here!

Excuse me: What industries are needed for basic production in a region with a population of one million?

A: Small coal mines, small iron and steel plants, small machinery plants, small fertilizer plants, small cement plants, small power plants, small textile factories, small printing plants and small food factories.

In fact, it was put forward by the state when it formulated the fourth five-year plan in 1970. The specific content is that the central government has arranged 8 billion yuan of special funds to support the development of five types of industrial projects in various provinces, such as small coal mines, small iron and steel plants, small fertilizer plants, small cement plants and small machinery plants.

At that time, the second large-scale introduction of complete sets of technical equipment was carried out, and 26 projects were actually signed, of which Liaoyang Petrochemical Fiber General Factory (2.9 billion yuan), WISCO 1.7 rice plant (2.76 billion yuan), Daqing Fertilizer Plant (yen loan, exchange rate adjustment, investment increased to 2.67 billion yuan) and Shanghai Petrochemical General Factory (2 billion yuan) invested more than 6,543.8 billion yuan.

Note that this is111165 billion. At that time, the official exchange rate was 1 USD to RMB 2.46. 4.7 billion dollars! ! ! 1970 only spent $20 million on foreign exchange reserves, and 1975 only spent $500 million on foreign exchange reserves! ! ! In addition, from 65438 to 0979, China's money supply was 2.6 billion yuan, and its GDP was 27.2 billion dollars (the data are all from the Internet, so please give people with insight a face).

China's only foreign exchange is not enough to introduce ethylene fertilizer plants. What TV set do you want to buy?

13 sets of large scale chemical fertilizer plant list introduced in 1970s;

1, Qilu Second Fertilizer Plant? 1974 started in April, and1976 was completed in July, with an investment of 263.03 million yuan;

2. Sichuan Chemical Plant? 1974 started in May,1976 was completed in February, with an investment of160120,000 yuan;

3. Luzhou Natural Gas Chemical Plant? 1974 started in April, and1977 was completed in March with an investment of 206.42 million yuan;

4. Daqing Chemical Fertilizer Plant? 1974 started in may, and1977 was completed in June, with an investment of 2,674.47 million yuan;

5. Cangzhou Chemical Fertilizer Plant? 1973 started in July and was completed in February with an investment of 243120,000 yuan;

6. Liaohe chemical fertilizer plant? Commencement in June 1974, completion in February 1977, with an investment of 343.42 million yuan;

7. Yunnan Natural Gas Chemical Plant? 1975, 65438+1October, 1977, 65438+February, with an investment of18.759 million yuan.

8. Qixiashan Chemical Fertilizer Plant? Commencement in September 1974, completion in June 1978, with an investment of 32 1.28 million yuan;

9. Anqing Chemical Fertilizer Plant? Construction started on March 1974 and was completed on February 1978 with an investment of 405.26 million yuan;

10, Chishui River Natural Gas Fertilizer Plant? 1976 1 started construction, 1978 65438+2 completed investment 17 1.85 million yuan;

1 1, Dongting Nitrogen Fertilizer Plant? /kloc-started in April, 1974, and was completed in July, 1979 with an investment of 313.29 million yuan;

Hubei chemical fertilizer plant? Construction started in June 1974 and was completed in August 1979 with an investment of 298.75 million yuan;

Guangzhou chemical fertilizer plant? Commencement in February 1974, 10 completion 1982, with an investment of 507.39 million yuan;

Among the above-mentioned 13 units, except Dongnan, Anqing and Zhijiang units, naphtha is used as raw material, and other units are all made of natural gas.

The main technical importers of the 10 plant with natural gas as raw material are the United States and the Netherlands. The ammonia plant adopts Kellogg production process in the United States, and the urea plant adopts carbon dioxide stripping process in Stamika, the Netherlands. Some enterprises have adopted the synthetic ammonia/urea process of Toyo Engineering Company of Japan.

One acre of land needs 10 kg of chemical fertilizer a year, and 3.9 million tons of chemical fertilizer production equipment has been introduced, which can meet the chemical fertilizer demand of about 260 million people.

We rely on the equipment and technology introduced in those years to deploy manpower to tackle key problems, such as 1 10000 tons of ethylene plant, 300,000 tons of ethylene plant, large chemical fertilizer and so on. Relying on the efforts of the predecessors who were good at studying, studying and researching in those years, they chewed off the production line of petrochemical plants one by one and directly or indirectly solved the problem of eating.

Don't take it seriously Without these basic industrial systems, a low-precision precision lathe will cost you 3 million yuan, and high-end ones will be banned, not to mention propellers, submarines and large aircraft. When you come to an ordinary family, you can deal with green leather cars all your life.

First, the LCD panel industry.

In 2004, I worked as the product manager of 15 inch panel in a state-owned enterprise. I was a graduate student who had just worked for less than two years. The whole team spent three months designing, one month preparing mask materials and two months trying out. Before the formal production, our estimated cost is $220 per piece. At this time, the market price is $260. Six months later, we have about 25% share in the global market of 15 inch. At this time, the market price is terrible $65,438+$060, while our cost is $65,438+$080. Grandma who lost money doesn't know.

We can look at BOE's financial report, which basically makes a profit every three years. According to the market economy, should such enterprises close down? But if you calculate, the general relationship is: in 2005, for every loss of 65,438+0 yuan in China panel industry, the cost of LCD and TV enterprises in China will be reduced in 20 yuan. This is the power of localization.

With the efforts and efforts of BOE, Tianma, SVA and TCL for many years, there would be no success in the domestic TV industry without the huge investment of panel industry countries. The investment of China government in LCD panel industry is about10 billion US dollars, while the output of LCD TV in China in 2065.438+04 was 654.38+400 billion US dollars, and the TV industry recovered its investment within a few months.

The second example is new energy.

In 20 10, we talked with all the international natural gas giants about the supply of an alkane gas, including Linde, Aier, AP and other Fortune 500 companies. Their quotation is very close, 45,000 kg, although we know that the supplier cost behind them is less than 25,000 kg. Then we worked hard to cultivate a domestic supplier in Fujian, and the cost was higher, at the level of 28 thousand. We bought it at the price of 365,438+0,000. Then less than a year later, these top 500 companies came to us again and said that they would sell it to you for 27,000 yuan. So according to some believers of free market economy, we should give up domestic manufacturers and cooperate with foreign big enterprises? What a genius. We know very well that when domestic families die, these foreign predators will not hesitate to raise their prices to more than 40 thousand. By the way, all the people who negotiated with us were comprador from China, the China subsidiary of these large international companies.

Let's give another example. In 20 13, we acquired an American company, which was heavily in debt. If the local tyrants in China don't make moves, it's absolutely a winner. Even so, the acquisition was investigated by the American Imperial Council, and the acquisition was postponed for three months. In the so-called anti-monopoly, what US congressmen really care about is not monopoly, but the relationship between our enterprise and the China government, and the resulting technology and military applications.

The company's production technology requires the use of rolled steel plates with a thickness of 0.5 mm. When we wanted to produce in China after localization, both American and Japanese suppliers indicated that they could not export to China, because according to Batumi's regulations, it was a strategic material embargo against China. Six months after we reached an agreement with Baosteel that Baosteel would start producing samples of this kind of steel plate, American imperialism decisively lifted the embargo on this kind of steel plate in China.

So why industrialization and localization? Because this world has never been a free market economy, it is still a typical jungle law. At any time, only if you can succeed, others will talk to you about the free market. When you can't do it, you will either face high-priced dumping or a total embargo.

Of course, if our goal is not industrialization, but only the development of service industry, and the goal is to export manpower and raw materials and dump high-end products, then there is really no need for localization or anything.

-Chapters IV and V are attached.