Why are some tricks stupid at first glance, but some people still believe them?

Have you ever received such a retarded message?

Hello, I'm Qin Shihuang. I'm not actually dead, but I've been sleeping. Now I'm still alive. Revive my 100,000 terracotta warriors and horses and I will rule the world. So I need some money now. As long as you transfer 5000 yuan to XXXXX account to help me successfully restore the country, I will make great contributions to you. After occupying the world, I will seal a place to be your monarch.

This scam message is really a sand sculpture, which was widely circulated on the Internet and finally became a famous paragraph "I, Qin Shihuang, fight for money!"

Why are there so many fools?

I'm sure most of you will laugh when you receive similar text messages. Have you ever wondered-has anyone really been fooled by such a stupid scam?

Yes, there was a similar situation in a news story one year. Two swindlers lied that they were Cixi and Li, and cheated an entrepreneur by millions.

This is the problem. Why can such a trick fool people? Don't actually laugh. Maybe after listening to my explanation, you will find that you are not much worse than them. This is related to the way human beings understand fate. If you believe in fate, you should be careful.

In fact, the above deception is quite related. Internationally known as "Nigerian prince scam", the content is basically the same, except that Qin Shihuang was replaced by a Nigerian prince who fled abroad. In order to transfer a large sum of money, he promised to give you 10000 dollars as a reward.

Do you find this statement more confusing than Qin Shihuang's? If you had never warned about cheating before, would you have been fooled? If you change this routine into some areas that you believe in, can you really identify it? When I was a student, there was a girl who sneered at the novels of cultivating immortals, but was convinced that Harry Potter's world was real and said, "Why don't you always understand me?" The way it looks.

Well, then why does everyone believe what Qin Shihuang pulled like this? This is actually a screening process. If you don't believe it, you are not the target customer of the liar. If you are willing to believe such a story, Dora will believe it a little.

Because there are too many people, no matter how many bizarre tricks, the proportion of people who believe is also very small. As long as you cast a wide net, you can catch the fish you need.

The problem is that there are many people who think they are smart, but there are also some loopholes in understanding or thinking. Maybe he is familiar with all the known tricks, but as long as he changes his coat, he is likely to be caught. For example, although this person doesn't believe in Qin Shihuang, he believes in Yin-Yang, Five Elements or Constellations, so as long as he throws a similar scam, he probably has no immunity.

Therefore, to understand the inherent logic of this deception, the key is to realize that "you are not special". This kind of short message that makes you laugh is likely to hit the soft rib of a person who is calmer and wiser than you.

Deconstruct fate

Is this already very powerful? Don't panic, there are more powerful tricks, get ready to start taking them!

If one day you receive an email:

"Hello, I am an anonymous mathematician who studies probability divination. I made a major breakthrough in my research last year. Now I can use the formula I found to predict the result of basketball perfectly. Now I am willing to use 10000 yuan to transfer this formula outside, which is enough to help you make a fortune.

I know you must be calling me a liar now. It doesn't matter. We also need to build trust. Now I'll give you a preview of the results of this season's game. Tomorrow, the slow boat will beat the second kicking team, and then make a decision when this rehearsal is all over! "

You think this email is really puzzling, but when you buy sports lottery tickets, you often look for inspiration from various lottery predictions. It really surprised me several times, but it didn't work. Is there really a formula to calculate the future law? And was discovered by a master?

So the next day you watched the game, and the result was that the slow boat won, but it's not hard to guess, maybe it's just a coincidence, you think so.

In the evening, you received another email.

"I believe you have seen that my first prediction is correct. Of course, I'm not stupid enough to think that you will believe me so soon. The result of tomorrow's game will be that the gang fighters won Haimin. We will wait and see! "

This requires a little courage, because according to the normal strength comparison, how can a person fight with a sailor? You suddenly think it's time to see if this formula works.

The next day, it was cold! Gang warfare really hit the sailors! You are surprised, this formula seems really good!

On the third day, the mysterious man predicted a little surprise again.

On the fourth day, the prediction is correct!

The fifth day, a little surprised, still correct!

On the sixth day, as expected, it was an instant hit!

On the seventh day, today you decided to buy lottery tickets according to the email, which was unexpected again. You're rich!

On the eighth day, you decided to raise the stakes. Although it's not so dramatic this time, it's still right! Make a small profit.

Well, the season is over, but you obviously haven't won enough. At this time, the mystery man's mail arrived as scheduled.

"Dear friend, have you made a decision? If you don't buy it today, you won't be able to buy it later. My formula makes too many people rich. Now the police are investigating me. I will go abroad the day after tomorrow. Before that, I can make a friend. "

So your trembling hand reached into your wallet. ...

………………

Stop! Time out!

Ok, now, how on earth did you get cheated, or how did he make a prediction?

Have you figured it out?

Think again?

All right, I'll announce the answer.

In fact, there is no technical content at all. In the first game, the swindlers sent emails to 1 million people, but 500,000 of them won the slow boat race, and 500,000 of them were sent to the second kicking team.

After a day, the result came out, regardless of the number of the second kicking team, only the number of the winning slow boat continued to be issued, and the same operation was carried out. Among them, 250,000 people won the team battle and the other half won the Haitian.

As long as this operation is repeated 8 times, the scammer can get 3906 "perfect prediction" accounts, and then induce payment again. As long as there is 80% conversion rate, you can cheat 30 million!

Why did you fall for it? Because you don't see through "I'm not special" and "I'm not the protagonist", you will mistakenly think that the other party just extended an olive branch to you (or a few people).

The same is true of the understanding of fate. After many bizarre things happen, the parties will repeatedly ask "why?" Why me and not others?

Actually, there is no reason at all. As long as there are enough samples, a small probability event will become inevitable, but it will make people feel at a loss when it comes to themselves, because most people don't realize the conflict between the inevitability of probability and their narrow perspective.

Do you believe in fate? They are just inevitable accidents.