Zelensky received a "birthday present": Leopard 2 and M 1 main battle tanks came.

After the Ukrainian army withdrew from Soledad, the important town of "Bakhmut decisive battle", major European and American countries finally agreed to help Ukraine with advanced main battle tanks.

65438+ On June 25th, 2023, local time, the German government issued a statement saying that it would first transport 14 Panther 2 tanks from its own inventory to Ukraine. The final target supply is 80 aircraft, which can be equipped with about two armored battalions. Later that day, US President Biden announced that he would assist Ukrainian 3 1 M 1 Abrams tanks. Previously, the British government had promised to help 14 Challenger 2 tanks. French President Macron also indicated that Leclerc tanks may be sent to Ukraine.

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65438+1October 25th is the 45th birthday of Ukrainian President Zelensky. For more than a month, he and Ukrainian military and political leaders have been working hard to obtain the above four western main battle tanks. This month, Ukraine faced many difficulties on the battlefield: Russian troops made a breakthrough in attacking Bakhmut, a major town in the northeast of Donetsk controlled by Ukraine, and the Russian Air Force was still attacking major cities and energy facilities in Ukraine, making the winter even colder.

However, in terms of assistance to the Ukrainian army, the previously stagnant "aid upgrade" agenda has made significant progress. Before deciding to assist the main battle tanks, Europe and America had made a series of commitments to Ukraine to assist advanced infantry fighting vehicles and artillery systems in June+10, 5438. Now, Zelensky's next target is American-made attack drones and ATACMS long-range missile systems, which will enable Ukrainian troops to attack Crimea and Russian inland bases on existing fronts.

However, can this "birthday gift" solve the urgent need? According to German officials, these assistance can be in place within three to four months at the earliest, but tanks cannot quickly form combat effectiveness when they arrive in Ukraine. The US government did not give a "delivery" timetable. On the other hand, Russia called it an "extremely dangerous decision". Russian Presidential Spokesman peskov declared that these tanks would only "burn in Ukraine" in the end. What is certain is that the war between Russia and Ukraine will be more intense in winter and spring, and the hope of a peaceful truce is still far away.

Al Jazeera reports US-German aid to Ukrainian main battle tanks screenshot

A late "birthday present"

Ukraine has long proposed the need for western main battle tanks. From June 5438 to February 2022, Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, stressed that Ukraine needed 300 main battle tanks to support the sustained counterattack. At that time, the large-scale counterattack of the Ukrainian army had been stagnant for two months, and the Russian army, which had expanded its army and reorganized its military industry, reorganized its offensive on the front line of Donetsk.

The American think tank "War Research Institute" pointed out that this is because the West refused to upgrade its military assistance to Ukraine, and the original Soviet-made weapons and ammunition of the Ukrainian army were insufficient to maintain its previous battlefield advantage. According to the analysis of Foreign Policy magazine, the Ukrainian army has only two choices: either acquire the equipment of the former Soviet Union scattered in Eastern European countries, carry out modernization, and then form a weak combat effectiveness, while continuing to be troubled by the lack of ammunition reserves in the Soviet Union; Either directly acquire the western main battle tanks that are more advanced than Russia, and at the same time acquire the NATO ammunition depot that is almost "bottomless".

However, since 65438+February 2022, the US government has repeatedly stated that American-made main battle tanks are "not suitable for fighting in Ukraine" and put forward a series of difficulties such as training and logistics. Until June 24, 2023, after the defense chiefs of major European and American countries held a key meeting in Germany to help Ukraine, US Secretary of Defense Austin was still vague about the issue of tank assistance, saying only that "what we really care about is to ensure that Ukraine has the capabilities it needs to succeed now".

Some Pentagon officials privately complained to the American media that the technical problem put forward by Austin and other senior government officials was "not a problem in fact", otherwise, the American government would not have to make a commitment to aid 150 American infantry fighting vehicles in June, 5438.

The reason behind it is not to worry about touching the "red line" of Russia. Zelensky promised the United States that Ukrainian troops would not use western tanks to attack Russian targets. Recently, the US Department of Defense has been actively "raising the red line", acquiescing Ukrainian troops to attack Russian air bases with Soviet-made weapons, and reducing the threat assessment of possible retaliatory measures after Russia breaks through the "red line".

In fact, according to a number of unnamed officials quoted by the American "Politician" magazine, the Pentagon has never stopped trying to get the White House to agree to help tanks. At a meeting in June 5438+ 10, 2023, it was also the first time that Secretary of Defense Austin explicitly suggested to President Biden that the United States should assist Ukrainian M 1 Abrams tanks. However, Biden did not express his position.

Biden's situation is obviously more complicated than that of the Department of Defense. Republicans who have just won a majority in Congress regard blocking aid to Ukraine as one of the key actions in the game with the White House. In Europe, Italy, under the leadership of the far-right government, explicitly opposes the escalation of military assistance to Ukraine, and the latest escalation of EU sanctions against Russia has also experienced twists and turns in internal negotiations.

On the other hand, the British government, which has been at the forefront of aiding Ukraine, is unwilling to wait for negotiations with its allies. On June 65438+1October 65438+June 6, the plan to help Challenger 2 tank was confirmed. Subsequently, Poland, Finland and other countries proposed that the armies of Poland and other countries equipped with Leopard 2 tanks could hand over their tanks to the Ukrainian army if Germany allowed. German Chancellor Angela Scholz immediately responded that if the US government agreed to send M 1 tanks, Germany would agree to help the Leopard 2 tanks.

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A "senior Biden administration official" told CNN that the allies had shifted all the pressure to Washington, which surprised the US government. Another American official revealed that Biden finally agreed to help tanks in order to "maintain unity among allies". Biden's close partner, Democratic Senator Kuhns, publicly stated, "If the Germans say so, then we should send tanks."

At the press conference of 654381October 25th, Biden did not specify how he would send these tanks. However, according to the Associated Press, the Ukrainian government is likely to be compromised: in the just-adopted $2.5 billion Ukrainian security assistance package, 3 1 m 1 main battle tank will be purchased, but no specific delivery time will be set. "In this way, the government can meet the requirements of the allies for the United States without having to send tanks immediately."

Can we reverse the Russian-Ukrainian war?

What impact will Ukraine's commitment to aid main battle tanks from Europe and America have on the Russian-Ukrainian war situation? As far as theoretical parameters are concerned, the armored defense capability, optical aiming system and digital fire control system of European and American main battle tanks are more advanced than those of Russian tanks, and they have obvious advantages in night combat. At present, the problem of ammunition supply difficulties faced by the Ukrainian army will no longer exist, and NATO standard ammunition depots will continuously transport artillery shells to the Ukrainian army.

However, there is still a long way to go to get aid commitments and deliver tanks and form combat effectiveness and influence the war situation. Many military experts, including the U.S. Department of Defense, pointed out that the Leopard 2 tank made in Germany is the main one that can finally play a role in the battlefield.

First of all, the M 1 tank in the US military garage needs to disassemble some confidential equipment before being sent to Ukraine, which is an "expensive and time-consuming" process. In contrast, at least 13 of European troops are using about 2000 Panther 2 tanks, which is more convenient for replenishment.

Secondly, M 1 tank is the first main battle tank with gas turbine engine in the world. Its engine is expensive and difficult to operate. It consumes 300 gallons of fuel when it runs for 8 hours, and the annual maintenance cost of a battalion-level battle group is as high as 700 million dollars. The maintenance cost of Leopard 2 tank with diesel engine is low, and Ukrainian soldiers are more familiar with its working principle. The Ukrainian army believes that it only takes about 3 to 6 weeks to train soldiers to use the Leopard 2 tank.

The Institute of International Strategic Studies, a British think tank, also pointed out that only by installing at least 100 advanced main battle tanks can we form a key advantage in the Ukrainian battlefield. Hodges, former commander of the US military in Europe, revealed that the Ukrainian army hoped to build a division-scale armored force "as the main breakthrough battle group in the next stage of the war". Considering that the 3 1 M 1 tank, which is "in the foreseeable future", can only be equipped with one battalion-level battle group, and the 14 Challenger tank can only be equipped with one company, what is more worthy of Ukrainian army's expectation is nearly 100 Leopard 2 tanks.

However, the Ukrainian army still needs to overcome a series of difficulties to make the Leopard 2 tank form combat effectiveness. Language barriers, "operational concepts" and other issues may be solved through training and early actual combat, but in the "total war", tanks are only part of the coordinated operations of multiple arms. According to the establishment of the European and American armies, each tank company needs to be equipped with anti-aircraft missile teams, sufficient fuel supply vehicles, mechanized infantry units and other auxiliary equipment.

Military analysts are concerned about how the Ukrainian army can ensure the fuel transportation of large-scale armored clusters and how to maintain the safety of frontline ammunition depots without air superiority. Russian armored forces, which have more operational experience and advanced support level than the Ukrainian army, encountered the crisis of logistics supply difficulties and fuel supply being cut off in the middle of the "special military operation". After July, 2022, during the counter-attack and stalemate of the Ukrainian army, it was more difficult for Russian armored forces to form combat effectiveness because the fuel depot and ammunition depot were repeatedly attacked by rockets from Hamas.

Hodges therefore called on Europe and the United States to provide more weapons assistance to the Ukrainian army, including long-range missiles and Grey Eagle armed drones. However, the Center for New American Security, a Washington think tank, pointed out that the Biden administration kept these military assistance "to control the escalation of the situation." For the Ukrainian army, the urgent task is to make the new armored forces quickly become an army and put into battle, and achieve results, thus proving to the West that this attempt to break through the Russian "red line" is worthwhile. Only in this way can Europe and the United States consider more aid.

On the other side of the battlefield, on June 65438+1October 65438+/KLOC-0 1 in 2023, just after the Russian Orthodox New Year holiday, Defense Minister shoigu adjusted the commander of Russia's "special military operations" in Ukraine, and 67-year-old Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces gerasimov was appointed as the new commander-in-chief. Since then, the Russian army has continuously adjusted its front-line command institutions. The Ukrainian intelligence service 65438+1October 23rd said that the commanders of the Russian Southern Military Region and the Western Military Region had been replaced.

The "window period" of the war between winter and spring is approaching, and both sides are preparing for the next stage. Some analysts believe that the two sides will maintain intensive shelling and drone attacks in the short term. Russia's attacks on Ukrainian civilian facilities and energy facilities will not stop, and the Ukrainian army will try to use drones to attack Russian logistics networks and inland bases. In the "decisive battle field" in Donetsk, the Russian army is trying to form the final encirclement of Bakhmut, which has been attacking for half a year. Pushkin1October 24th, head of Donetsk controlled by Russia, said that at present, the Ukrainian army can only control one road leading to Bakhmut.

Reporter: Cao Ran.