Chaos lesson: the concept of 10 times speed change

Some time ago, Li Shanyou talked about the concept of 10x change in chaos class, and quoted the view of former Intel CEO Andy Grove, that is, every strategic turning point is 10x change, and every 10X change will lead to a strategic turning point.

So as to gain profound insight:

It is not the speed change of 10 times of the whole enterprise or industry, but a factor that affects the enterprise has changed greatly in a short time.

The strategic turning point is to seize the moment of great change when the single factor changes at the speed of 10 times, and amplify the transition of the lever of single factor from the first curve to the second growth curve.

In the business world, there is also a good theory of 10 times, which is similar to the change of 10 times mentioned by Professor Shanyou. It is a verification index for new enterprises to develop products and enter the market. Let's talk about this "10 good theory" today.

10 times better theory

The theory of "10 times better" originated from Peter Tiller's From 0 to 1. He said that if a new enterprise wants to achieve rapid growth, the solution it provides is more than 10 times better than the existing one, and it can achieve 10 times lower cost and 10 times higher efficiency. Because:

Consumers will overestimate the existing solutions by more than 3 times.

Entrepreneur will overestimate their plans by more than three time,

So you have to create a plan that is 10 times better than the current situation.

Only in this way can customers have the motivation and willingness to break away from the inertia of the existing scheme and take risks to try your scheme.

This is the theory that 10 times better, and truly innovative or subversive products and services must be at least 10 times better than the current practices in order to succeed. This thinking framework is not only useful for new ventures, but also helpful for mature large companies to develop new products and open up new markets.

You have to think twice about what value you can bring to your customers. Is this value greater than the original product they used? how much is it? Is it more than 10 times?

10 times the good case.

10 times is an order of magnitude difference. We say that in thinking mode 39. Magnitude thinking thinks that different magnitudes have different ways of playing. The difference of 10 times is an order of magnitude and belongs to different dimensions. It is more successful to use high dimensions to hit low dimensions. In order to better understand and practice this theory, let's look at several examples:

Bombers versus atomic bombs

During World War II, a typical American bomber will carry about 6 tons of TNT, and it takes hundreds of bombers to complete a large bombing mission. Since the invention of the atomic bomb, a bomber has carried an atomic bomb with the power equivalent to 20 thousand tons of TNT. This means that the destructive power of each aircraft has increased by 3300 times, and the number of aircraft has also decreased by 200-300 times.

Compared with bombers, atomic bombs are several orders of magnitude progress. Now it's time to understand why Sanpang, the big leader next door, wants to conduct an atomic bomb test.

Trains and planes

The maximum speed of an ordinary train is 120km/h, which is about 2000km from Beijing to Guangzhou, and it takes more than 20 hours to get there. The speed of civil airliners is 800 km/h, and the flight time from Beijing to Guangzhou is less than 3 hours, saving nearly 10 times.

At present, the speed of high-speed rail is more than 300 km/h, and it takes less than 10 hour from Beijing to Guangzhou, so it has had an impact on civil aviation and become a competitor of civil aviation. This also indirectly shows that 3 times cannot widen the gap, and customers don't know much about 3 times better, so it must be 10 times better.

Taxi fight Didi

Before there was taxi software, taxis could only run to the street to stop, and the comfort and service of the car were not good, so they could only pay cash. With taxi software such as Didi, you can make an appointment in advance before you travel, with many models to choose from, good comfort, thoughtful service and automatic deduction when you get off. In the past, if something was left in a taxi, it was difficult to find it, but using software to take a taxi, you can contact the driver directly, which is much more likely to find it.

Compared with taxi, taxi software such as Didi brings great convenience to customers, and the customer's perceived experience is good 10 times.

Library and kindle

Amazon. Com greatly improved the book buying experience, and also developed the kindle to upgrade the book buying and reading experience at the same time. Buying books in a physical bookstore not only takes time on the road, but also is inconvenient to find books in the bookstore.

You can find the book you want on kindle and look forward to buying it with one click. The kindle, which weighs less than a book, can store hundreds of books and e-books. The book stock is increased by hundreds of times, the occupied space is reduced, and the user experience is improved by more than 10X 10 times.

Sms vs.wechat

In the era of function machine, besides voice phone, SMS is another commonly used function. Each piece of information costs about 1 cent. If you want to send a picture, you must use MMS. A MMS is about 1 yuan.

With WeChat, not only the text transmission is very convenient, but also the online communication of voice at different times is realized, and the usability has been qualitatively improved. People who can't read can skillfully use WeChat to send voice. It can also transmit multimedia such as pictures and videos at a very low cost. Cost reduction 10 times, better experience 10 times.

10 times the power

Of course, not every new enterprise is better than the existing scheme 10 times or more. We saw that some companies' new products didn't improve much, and soon occupied a large market. But 10 times better is worth every company's efforts and thinking in this direction.

Whether you are a solo entrepreneur, founder of a startup, or manager of a company, think about your latest three products. How much added value did you provide?

It may only be a little promotion, only 1. 1 times or 1.2 times, then the possibility of success will be very low.

The more added value you can provide to customers, the more successful your business will be. Not everything can be improved by 10 times, but don't stop thinking. Never stop asking: How can we provide an experience 10 times better than the current situation?

Today's conclusion is:

If a new enterprise or new product wants to achieve rapid growth in the market, there are two options to apply our 10 times better theory:

First: subversive innovation.

Your solution is 10 times better than the existing one. Only in this way will customers be willing to give up the status quo and use your products and services. You can harvest the wow of users, grow rapidly at a very low cost, build your own moat, form a monopoly, and obtain excess profits.

Second: enter a market that has changed enough.

As Professor Shanyou said, this rapidly changing market should have one or more of the following characteristics:

Users change at the speed of 10 times;

Supplier 10 times speed change;

Complementary enterprise 10 times speed change;

Because the market is changing rapidly, even if your solution is not as good as 10 times, the changing market will bring you great potential and make you grow rapidly.

Thinking about the problem:

Finally, I'll give you a question to think about:

Ceng Ming, Chairman of the Academic Committee of Ali Group, disclosed in Lakeside University some time ago that the daily order of Harrow bicycles has exceeded the sum of mobike and ofo. As a rising star, under the first-Mover advantage of mobike and ofo, how did Harrow Bike grow and surpass rapidly, and where did it achieve 10 times better? Welcome to leave a message