Construction and operation of network information service system for talent demand analysis and prediction

First, the analysis and forecast of talent demand and the construction of network information service system

According to the relevant contents and requirements of talent demand analysis and forecast in colleges and universities, give full play to and make use of the functional advantages of university libraries in internal and external network resources, knowledge information collection and arrangement, storage and processing integration, reference and consultation, contact and cooperation, and build an information service platform system for talent demand analysis and forecast in colleges and universities based on the network environment (Figure 3- 12). The system includes the following five components: ① Service object system. According to the analysis and forecast of regional talent demand, industry talent demand and professional talent demand, the main service targets at different levels are determined. From the overall characteristics of the service object of the planning and design of the information service platform for talent demand analysis and prediction, although the service object is the analysis and prediction of the demand of professional talents in colleges and universities in a general sense, this object can be further divided into different research objects, including: specific disciplines, different research fields and directions, different regions and different industries. The planning and design of the information service platform for talent demand analysis and prediction should focus on the specific industry and main disciplines of the school, and on this basis, take into account the talent demand analysis of the region and a single major; ② Service center system. According to the functional requirements, the center is divided into talent demand elements information service center, talent demand database information service center, talent demand analysis information service center and talent demand forecast information service center. The information service center of talent demand factors mainly provides information support that affects the factors of talent demand at different levels of the school; The information service center of the talent demand database is used to provide various materials, data and information resources related to the demand and supply of talents in the professional field of the school; The talent demand analysis information service center mainly focuses on the methods and processes of related talent demand analysis; The talent demand forecasting information service center can make specific demand forecasts for talent demand in different professions, industries and regions; ③ Service platform system. According to the function division of the above service center system, the interactive platform of information service for influencing factors of talent demand, information service for querying talent demand database, information service for investigating and analyzing talent demand, and information service for forecasting and feedback talent demand are set up in turn. Through these platforms, different service contents and functions can be modularized; ④ Service information system. According to the macro-economic and social development, regional economic and social development, industry economic and social development, professional field development, enterprise talent demand, talent demand of other units, talent demand database of employers, talent training database of relevant institutions, information feedback database of supply and demand sides, talent demand analysis survey, talent demand analysis method, talent demand analysis data processing, talent demand analysis result release, talent demand prediction model, talent demand prediction processing and talent demand prediction information feedback, etc., a professional information service system is set up. ⑤ Library network information guarantee system. It includes service basic condition analysis, service demand analysis, business layer construction, knowledge base construction, system maintenance and update and other functions. In order to give full play to the advantages of library's network information and ensure the service demand positioning, system analysis and design, database construction, system link, system maintenance and update of the network information service platform.

Figure 3- 12 Construction of network information service system for talent demand analysis and prediction in university libraries

Second, the analysis of the influencing factors of the demand for geological science and technology talents in Hebei Province

1. Key areas of basic and theoretical research of geological science in Hebei Province

According to the focus and direction of the development of China's geological disciplines determined by geological society of china, combined with the actual situation of Hebei Province, it can be determined that the key areas of basic and theoretical research of geological sciences in Hebei Province are:

1) nonmetallic mineral geology. Strengthen the research of nonmetallic mineral geology and mineral application technology: First, strengthen the research of metallogenetic geochemistry, radioisotope, metallogenetic fluid and inclusion, metallogenetic microenvironment, metallogenetic material exchange and metallogenetic simulation experiment of nonmetallic deposits; In-depth study of the late transformation of the deposit; The second is to deepen the research on the characteristics, ore-bearing formation, metallogenic series and metallogenic model of nonmetallic deposits, and to study the crustal tectonic evolution-metallogenic geochemistry-deposit formation process-post-transformation of deposits as a time-space unified metallogenic system; Third, strengthen the research on metallogenetic mineralogy, prospecting mineralogy, applied mineralogy, environmental mineralogy and ore technology, and carry out research on new uses of various minerals and ore purification, superfine (including nano-scale), modification and modification to meet the needs of cutting-edge science and technology and market development.

2) Exploration geochemistry. The key research fields include: first, the study of ultra-low density geochemical mapping theory and global geochemical mapping methods, the study of vertical migration mechanism of elements and geochemical exploration methods in coverage areas; Secondly, the regional geochemical model of the deposit and the prospect evaluation of mineral resources, the primary geochemical model and the prediction of deep concealed ore, and the theoretical methods and techniques of regional environmental geochemical mapping; Third, the comprehensive evaluation of multi-objective geochemical survey results.

3) Mineralogy. First, carry out a new round of investigation and evaluation of poor ore resources, and promote the exploration, development and utilization of poor ore resources and the introduction and popularization of technology; The second is to strengthen the utilization and technical research of low-grade hard-to-use resources, non-traditional mineral resources and tailings resources; Third, the key breakthrough is the utilization technology of refractory iron ore resources and low-grade aluminum resources, the comprehensive utilization technology of low-grade copper polymetallic ore and complex lead-zinc polymetallic ore, and the rational utilization technology of complex gold ore with high arsenic and high sulfur and low-grade vanadium ore.

2. Geological problems to be solved in the development of national economy

According to the State Council's decision on strengthening geological work, combined with the requirements of national economic development in Hebei Province, the main tasks and research focuses of geological science and technology in Hebei Province in the future are as follows:

1) Highlight energy and mineral exploration. Accelerate the general survey and necessary detailed investigation of coal bases and strengthen coal exploration.

2) Strengthen the exploration of non-energy important minerals. Taking the important mineral resources urgently needed in China as the main focus, taking into account some advantageous mineral resources, and implementing the mineral resources guarantee project in accordance with the policy of deepening the east and finding blindness. Focus on strengthening the exploration of iron, gold and other minerals, forming a number of important resource bases.

3) Do a good job in mine geology. Do a good job in mine geology according to the principles of theoretical guidance, technical priority, exploration and peripheral expansion. Strengthen supplementary exploration in the process of mine production and guide scientific mining. Accelerate the exploration of resources in crisis mines and resource-exhausted cities, and vigorously promote deep and peripheral prospecting. Carry out comprehensive evaluation, exploration and utilization of associated minerals and tailings. Do a good job of geological work in the stage of mine closure and reclamation.

4) Strengthen the investigation and monitoring of geological disasters and geological environment. Implement geological environmental protection projects to comprehensively improve the level of geological disaster prevention and geological environmental protection. Complete the general survey of geological disasters in key areas as soon as possible, establish and improve the prevention and control system of geological disasters combining group and specialty, and continue to do a good job in the prevention and control of geological disasters in key areas.

3. Factors affecting the demand for geological science and technology talents in Hebei Province

At the National Science and Technology Conference, Premier Wen Jiabao brilliantly expounded the basic contradictions in China at present: "At this stage, China's social and economic development is facing two basic contradictions: one is the contradiction between the development of social productive forces and the people's growing material and cultural needs, which will continue to exist; The second is the contradiction between rapid economic and social development, population growth and resource and environmental constraints. With the advancement of industrialization and urbanization, this contradiction will become more prominent. "

To meet the people's growing material and cultural needs and promote industrialization and urbanization, the biggest problem is the constraint of resources and environment. To solve this problem, we need to strengthen geological work; The strengthening of geological work depends on geological science and technology talents.

(1) Analysis of Main Influencing Factors

There are four main factors that affect the demand of geological science and technology talents in Hebei Province: economic development, social development, globalization and geological science and technology development.

1) The demand of economic development for mineral resources and energy will bring the demand for commercial geological work, which in turn will lead to the demand for geological science and technology talents. Through industrialization and urbanization, economic development produces demand for mineral resources and energy, which will transfer this demand to commercial geological work and eventually produce demand for geological science and technology talents.

2) The demand of social development for public geological services will lead to the demand for public geological work, which in turn will lead to the demand for public geological science and technology talents. Social development generates the demand for public welfare geological services through environmental protection, prevention and control of geological disasters, engineering construction and land improvement, and informatization of geological data. Public welfare geological services transmit this demand to public welfare geological work elements, and finally bring the demand for geological and scientific talents.

3) Globalization requires China's geological prospecting units to go out and participate in global resource allocation, and the strategy of resource globalization will inevitably lead to a huge demand for geological and scientific talents. Globalization produces the demand for global resource allocation through raw material market, mineral products market and capital market, which transfers this demand to commercial geological work and eventually leads to the demand for geological science and technology talents.

4) The development of geological science and technology needs scientific and technological innovation and technical support institutions, which will require more geological science and technology talents. With the development of geological science and technology, professional geological survey institutions, scientific and technological innovation units and technical support institutions have a demand for scientific and technological innovation and technical support, which will transfer this demand to public welfare geological work and eventually lead to the demand for geological science and technology talents.

At the same time, there are mutual promotion, mutual promotion, mutual influence and mutual restriction among the above four influencing factors, and through their complex relations, they have an impact on the demand for geological science and technology talents.

(2) Explain the factors that affect the demand for geological science talents.

1) The demand of economic development for mineral resources. This is determined by three objective laws of economic development:

The first is the objective law of energy and mineral resources that need to be consumed in the process of industrialization. According to the "S-shaped" curve and consumption intensity theory in the process of industrialization, it is known that a large amount of energy and mineral resources need to be consumed in the process of industrialization. Hebei province has entered the middle stage of industrialization, that is, the period of accelerated development of heavy chemical industry. However, the traditional industrialization model consumes a lot of energy and mineral resources and has a low utilization rate, which makes Hebei Province face a serious shortage of resources. In the development process of the next 20 years, most cities will continue to take the road of new industrialization, while energy and mineral resources are still industrialized food. The demand for resources and energy is so huge and the demand time is so long that it is urgent to strengthen the exploration of oil and natural gas resources, the general survey and detailed investigation of large coal bases, and the exploration of important mineral resources urgently needed in China, such as uranium, iron, copper and aluminum, in order to increase mineral reserves. This will require a lot of geological work, which will lead to a huge demand for geological talents.

Second, the law that urbanization is highly dependent on mineral resources. Cities and towns are formed by the accumulation of a large number of mineral resources. Hebei province is a province with a large proportion of towns and villages, and the scope of urbanization is very wide. Urbanization needs a lot of mineral resources to support it. Therefore, the promotion of urbanization will bring great demand for geological work and geological talents.

Thirdly, the objective law of interdependence among mining development, geological work and capital market has been confirmed by the market price of western developed countries. Capital market is an important financing channel for mining development, and vigorously developing mining capital market is an important strategic task to fully revitalize mining development, which is conducive to the structural adjustment and strategic reorganization of state-owned mining enterprises and geological prospecting units, and accelerates the development of non-state-owned mining economy. The relationship among mining development, geological work and capital market determines the development of mining industry. The development of mining capital market constantly requires the depth and breadth of geological work, and the requirements for the quantity and quality of geological talents are also constantly improving.

To sum up, economic development has expanded the demand for mineral resources, and the mining industry has entered a period of rapid development, and the demand for mineral geologists will be relatively strong, so it is necessary to establish a commercial mineral exploration team. Therefore, the amount of drilling holes in geological exploration, the investment in geological exploration and the demand for mineral products are all important factors affecting the demand for geological and scientific talents in the future.

2) The requirements of social development for geological work. With the acceleration of the process of building a well-off society in an all-round way, social development has put forward new and higher requirements for geological work, and the public is paying more and more attention to knowledge and information such as living environment, geological disasters, resource utilization, national conditions and regional conditions. Only by strengthening geological work and giving full play to its basic role can we make due contributions to building a harmonious society. Many fields such as urban and rural construction, land consolidation, prevention and control of geological disasters, improvement of human settlements and so on urgently need geological information support and technical support. Strengthen comprehensive prospecting and comprehensive utilization, marine geological survey, basic geological survey, water environmental geological survey and geological disaster prevention, strengthen public welfare geological work, and comprehensively enhance and enhance the service function of geological work.

The demand of social development for geological work will expand to the following six aspects: the demand for exploration and protection of mineral resources, the demand for environmental protection and prevention of geological disasters, the demand for engineering construction, urbanization and land and resources utilization planning, the demand for innovation in the application of geological science and technology, the demand for informatization of basic geological data, and the demand for marine and spatial development. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a public welfare geological survey team to engage in public welfare, basic geological survey and strategic mineral exploration.

Third, the demand forecast of scientific and technological talents in the geological industry in Hebei Province

1. Selection of forecasting methods

The trend method model is to use the appropriate trend line for extrapolation and prediction to describe the long-term trend of historical data. The application of the trend method is based on the assumption that the changes of each index follow the history, and it can make a limited prediction according to its development status, and its calculation formula is as follows:

Industry talent demand = target output × forecast calculation index value × correction coefficient

This study refers to the forecast result of "China Future Geological Science and Technology Talents Training Research 10 ~ 15" (Yu Jiyong, 2008), and the average annual growth rate of the forecast value is 6.8%. The forecast results of the demand for geological science and technology talents in Hebei Province in 2020 are obtained (Table 3-5, Table 3-6; Figure 3- 13).

Table 3-5 Quantity Table of Geological Science and Technology Talents Demand in Hebei Province from 2009 to 2020 Unit: Person

The number of talents needed in the next year minus the number of talents needed in the previous year represents the number of newly introduced or trained geological science and technology talents each year. The results are as follows (Table 3-6):

Research on Information Service System of University Library Based on Network Environment

Figure 3-13 Demand for Scientific and Technological Talents in Geological Industry of Hebei Province from 2009 to 2020

2. Forecast of graduates from geological colleges in the next decade.

(1) Prediction of the number of graduates from major geological colleges and departments in Hebei Province

See Table 3-7 and Figure 3- 14 for the number and growth rate of graduates from major geological universities and departments in Hebei Province from 2005 to 2009.

Table 3-7 Statistics on the number and growth rate of graduates from major geological colleges and departments in Hebei Province from 2005 to 2009

Figure 3-14 Graduates of Major Geological Colleges and Departments in Hebei Province from 2005 to 2009

According to the enrollment growth rate of major geological colleges and departments in Hebei Province in recent five years of 4.35%, the number of geological graduates trained in Hebei Province from 2009 to 2020 is obtained (Table 3-8; Figure 3- 15):

Table 3-8 Number of Graduates from Major Geological Colleges and Departments in Hebei Province from 2009 to 2020 Table Unit/Person

Figure 3-15 Graduates from major geological colleges and departments in Hebei Province from 2009 to 2020

(2) Prediction of the number of graduates from major geological colleges and departments in China.

According to the enrollment of geological majors in China from 2005 to 2009, if all students graduate in an ideal state, the predicted number of graduates in 2009-2020 is shown in Table 3-9.

Table 3-9 Number of Graduates from Geological Universities and Departments in China from 2009 to 2020 Table Unit: Person

3. Analysis of the talent gap of geological science and technology in Hebei Province

(1) The Main Sources of Geological Science and Technology Talents in Hebei Province

The first is the analysis of the flow of graduates from high-quality universities and departments in Hebei Province. According to the statistical data in 2009, there were 2 130 geological graduates from geological universities and departments in Hebei province in 2009, among which 335 people stayed in Hebei province to work in the geological industry, accounting for 15.7% of the total number of graduates. Taking the multi-year average value of 15%, it is predicted that the number of graduates who will stay in Hebei Province for geological work in 2009-2020 is shown in Table 3- 10.

Table 3-10 Number of Remaining Self-trained Geological Science and Technology Talents in Hebei Province from 2009 to 2020 Table Unit: Person

The second is the analysis of the flow of graduates from major geological colleges and departments in China to Hebei Province. According to the statistical data in 2008, there were 28,233 geological graduates in major geological colleges and departments (excluding Hebei Province), among whom 643 people came to Hebei to work in the geological industry, accounting for 2.3% of the total number of graduates. Calculated by taking the multi-year average of 2.35%, it is predicted that the number of graduates engaged in geological work in Hebei Province from 2009 to 2020 is shown in Table 3- 1 1.

Table 3-11Number of Geological Graduates Flowing into Hebei Province from 2009 to 2020 Table Unit: Person

Tables 3- 10 and 3- 1 1 are added. See table 3- 12 for the number of new geological and scientific talents in Hebei Province from 2009 to 2020.

Table 3-12 Number of Geological Science and Technology Talents Needed to Be Introduced or Trained in Hebei Province from 2009 to 2020 Table Unit: Person

(2) Analysis of the talent gap of geological science and technology in Hebei Province.

Assuming that the supply and demand of geological science and technology talents in Hebei Province reach an ideal balance, that is, the number of on-the-job talents meets the needs of geological science and technology undertakings in Hebei Province. Compare and analyze Table 3-6 with Table 3- 12, and get the number of geological science and technology talents in Hebei Province from 2009 to 2020 (Table 3- 13) and the cumulative number (Figure 3- 16).

Table 3-13 Quantity Table of Geological Science and Technology Talent Gap in Hebei Province from 2009 to 2020 Unit: Person

Figure 3- 16 20 10 ~ 2020 cumulative figure of the shortage of geological science and technology talents in Hebei province

Conclusion: If effective talent introduction and training measures are not taken, by 2020, the shortage of scientific and technological talents in geological exploration in Hebei Province will reach 3,536.

The main reasons for this result are as follows: first, the relevant units of geological industry in Hebei Province are not bigger and stronger, which is not attractive to graduates' employment; Second, the treatment of employees in the geological industry in Hebei Province is generally low, which is easy to cause the brain drain of geological science and technology talents; Third, although Hebei Province is a big geological province, it is not a strong geological province, especially a strong geological education province, and the geological graduates trained are far from meeting the needs of this province.